River Flood Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2020

Key Messages:

1. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible this afternoon mainly
south and east of a Butler, MO to Moberly, MO line.

2. Hail to an inch and strong and gusty winds are possible in the
strongest cells.

This Afternoon: An upper-level storm system is moving over the area
with a dry slot moving over the southern half of the forecast area.
That has helped reduce the coverage of rain for the southern half of
the forecast area. But this may also break the clouds up a bit, lead
to some surface heating and subsequent instability. This is all
ahead of a cold front that is moving southeast across the forecast
area. That front would move into this slight instability and may
trigger isolated thunderstorms. This would all occur in an
environment with favorable shear. There's a lot of ifs but can't
rule out some thunderstorms. CAPE values of up to around 500 J/kg
will limit intensity and any activity that does form should move
quickly to the east northeast, out of the forecast area.

Rest of the Forecast: High pressure will move through the area
Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather and decreasing cloud cover
during the day. With the upper jet moving over the area, an active
weather pattern will continue through the region. One shortwave will
move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
bringing another chance for rain before drying out during the
Wednesday. A stronger upper shortwave will move across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. This will push a
stronger cold front through the area Thursday/ Thursday afternoon.
Depending on the timing of that front, we should still be able to
climb into the 60s for most locations. There may also be a chance
for storms ahead of the front, mainly into central MO. Temperatures
look to be 10 to 20 degrees cooler for Friday in the wake of that
front. Our normal high for this time of year is still in the lower
40s, so this front really just gets us back to normal values heading
into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2020

Low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to persist into the evening
hours and likely overnight. A cold front will move through the
area this afternoon, shifting winds to the north to northwest.
This front is between KSTJ and KFNB and will progress southward
with time this afternoon, clearing all terminals in the 21Z to
23Z time frame.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
456 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
456 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the greater area of rainfall
this afternoon, primarily along and south of Interstate 70. No
severe weather is expected at this time, but cloud to ground
lightning may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

RLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

KSZ057-060-092145-
Miami KS-Linn KS-
353 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI AND NORTHERN
LINN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Parker, or 11 miles east of Garnett, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Cygne, Linn Valley, Parker, Fontana and Beagle.

LAT...LON 3827 9506 3841 9506 3852 9481 3841 9470
      3827 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 252DEG 22KT 3833 9504

Leighton