Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

121 
WWUS83 KEAX 141721
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Today...

.Strong southwest winds, low relative humidity, warm
temperatures, and dry vegetation will combine to promote elevated
fire weather concerns across portions of southwest and central
Missouri.

KSZ057-060-MOZ032-033-038>040-043>046-053-054-142300-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201014T2300Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-
Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
032, 038, 039, 043, 044, AND 057...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 057. Fire weather zones 032, 
  038, 039, 043, and 044. 

* WIND...Gusts of 30 to 35 MPH out of the southwest expected.

* HUMIDITY...30 percent or lower.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

055 
WWUS83 KEAX 142253
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020


KSZ057-060-MOZ032-033-038>040-043>046-053-054-150000-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201014T2300Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-
Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
032, 033, 038, 039, 040, 043, 044, 045, 046, 053, 054, 057, AND 
060...

Red Flag conditions have improved with relaxing winds and relative
humidity values increasing.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1108 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2020

Primary forecast focus is on winds and elevated fire weather
concerns.

Surface winds have shifted to the west this afternoon and will
continue to veer to the north through this evening. This is in
response to an open short wave through and associated weak surface
boundary sliding eastward off the Canadian Prairies and northern
Midwest. Across the region temperatures will remain warm, with highs
in the 70s this afternoon.

Overnight, winds will shift to the south through sunrise, as the
surface ridge slides east in response to an approaching surface
trough off the northern plains. Supported by an open 500mb short
wave trough, the surface pressure gradient will increase
considerably, resulting in increased southwest winds through mid to
late morning. Expect sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with gusts
to 30 and 35 mph. Would not be surprised to see gusts approach 40 or
45 mph. This strong wind and dry conditions will combine for
elevated fire weather concerns across the region. It is no surprise
the lack of rainfall has contributed to drier fuel conditions across
the area. Energy Release Component values from monitoring sites
around the region show a slightly above average trends, indicating
vegetation is susceptible to igniting. The most concerning
conditions will exist across central Missouri, where winds will be
the greatest in combination with lower RH values and warm
temperatures from midday through the afternoon. In response, to
these conditions along the Ozark Plateau and toward the Osage River
basin/lakes region, will run with a Fire Weather Watch for southwest
and central Missouri.

With the passage of the surface front through the overnight hours,
temperatures will cool off considerably, with morning lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, Thursday. Highs will not climb much more
than around 60. For Friday morning, below freezing temperatures
cannot be ruled out for a few hours across  northern Missouri and
pockets of freezing temperatures may reach as far south as the
Missouri River in central Missouri. Temperatures will rebound over
the weekend as a strong front looks to approach on Saturday,
resulting in highs back in the 70s in response to modest warm air
advection from the south and southwest.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2020

Low level wind shear expected later tonight through the sunrise
hour. Then gusty winds will gradually shift from southwest to west
and eventually northwest through the day, and increase to around
20 to 30 kts, lightening up around sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for KSZ060.

MO...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for MOZ033-040-045-046-
     053-054.

&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 SLightly elevated fire weather danger is expected this afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Elevated fire weather danger is expected Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo