Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

126 
WWUS83 KEAX 052022
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
222 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Continue This Afternoon...

.Strong and gusty northwesterly winds combined with low relative
humidity values continue this afternoon. Surface winds gusting 30
to 40 mph with humidity values falling to around 20 percent or 
lower, and grasses still dry from winter dormancy, will lead to 
dangerous fire weather conditions this afternoon.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200306T0000Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-
Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
222 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
001, 002, 003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 008, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015,
016, 017, 020, 021, 022, 023, 024, 025, 025, 028, 029, 030, 031,
032, 037, 102, 103, 104, AND 105...

* WIND...Gusts of 30 to 40 mph out of the northwest expected.

* HUMIDITY...20 percent or lower.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning should be avoided.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 PM CST WED MAR 4 2020

Message of the Day: Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected tomorrow. A fire weather watch is in effect
for tomorrow afternoon for the combination of humidity values
falling into the 20 to 25 percent range, possibly lower, and wind
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

Water vapor imagery with 1.5PVU pressure overlaid shows a strong
upper-level storm system moving southeastward into northern Montana
this afternoon. This wave will track into the Upper Midwest/
northern MO by tomorrow morning. The cold front associated with this
upper storm system will move through earlier in the day. But as the
upper PV is moving over the area during the afternoon, strong and
gusty northwest winds will develop. The deep mixing associated with
the upper PV will also allow for much drier air to surge into the
area as well. The main changes to the forecast were to lower
dewpoints by 5 to 10 degrees as models have really trended drier
with their latest runs. Have also increased wind speeds and gusts
as this is a classic pattern for strong northwesterly flow. That
combination though will lead to near critical to critical fire
weather conditions across much of the forecast area. The best
combination of low humidity and gusty winds will be from east
central KS through northeastern MO. And this is where the fire
weather watch will go into effect for. But high fire danger will
exist south of the greatest risk area as well.

Cooler temperatures are expected Friday with a surface ridge moving
over the area, keeping winds light, limiting mixing, keeping
temperatures from warming, compared to the weekend. That high
pressure are will move to the southeast of the area by Saturday. A
strengthening lee trough in the high plains will tighten the
pressure gradient through KS and MO, leading to increasing
southerly low-level flow. In the upper levels, a strong upper
ridge will build over the middle of the country through the
weekend. This will all enable highs to climb into the mid to upper
60s for the weekend. WOuldn't be surprised if we see some 70
degree readings in eastern KS and western MO. For Saturday, with
moisture return lagging, there will be an elevated risk fire
weather risk. By Sunday though, increasing moisture will keep
fire danger lower as humidity values only drop to around 50
percent vs the lower 30s for Saturday.

Widespread rain with a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday night
into Monday. Rainfall amounts with this system should range from
about half an inch to inch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon. Several other precipitation chances look possible next
week with the upper jet moving over the area bring quick-moving
systems through.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2020

VFR conditions will remain throughout the period. The main
impactful weather today will come from a cold frontal passage and
strong winds pushing into the region. Stronger winds aloft will
move over the area ahead of the cold front creating some LLWS
issues at 2kft of 40-45kts. As the front passes through the are
winds will shift to the NW and the LLWS will dissipate. As the
area heats up today higher winds will mix down to the surface with
20-25kt gusts out of the NW through 18Z before winds jump up to
around 30kts. Some guidance does indicate there could be isolated
gusts up to 40kts in the late afternoon which could increase some
high gust spreads of 20kts at times. The higher gusts will
decrease after sunset, but sustained winds will remain 10-15kts
through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>032-037.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051130-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
520 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Humidity will drop on Thursday to around 20 to 30 percent and winds
will increase out of the northwest between 20 and 30 mph. This will
lead to elevated fire weather concerns.

Widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
night into Monday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated with
this activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo