Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

751 
WGUS73 KEAX 041614
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MOC033-041-089-195-041624-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200704T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chariton MO-Carroll MO-Howard MO-Saline MO-
1114 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHARITON...CENTRAL CARROLL...
NORTHWESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHERN SALINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1115
AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3909 9267 3923 9311 3924 9348 3929 9348
      3927 9350 3924 9349 3924 9356 3945 9359
      3944 9307 3933 9270 3932 9271 3931 9269

$$

PP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

Key Messages:
-Chance for scattered storms through Saturday morning.
-Above average temps return for the work week, suggesting the chance
for oppressive heat indices.

Calm overnight conditions dominates the area with light
northeasterly surface flow.  We will see a change in this pattern
around mid-morning when a mid-level vort max in northeast Oklahoma
will trigger the chance for scattered storms in central Missouri.
Ensemble guidance suggests MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, providing
enough instability to promote storm development.  And with no cap
in place and moderate lapse rates around 6 degrees C/km, storms will
be free to develop through the rest of the morning into early
Saturday afternoon. We do not expect any organized severe weather
with this round of storms, as deep layer shear values top out at
10 kts. These storms are expected to track west along the I-70
corridor as surface and midlevel flow will remain predominantly
east.

Conditions are expected to dry up by mid-afternoon with lingering
cloud coverage helping keep temps in the lower to mid 80s. Areas
that see some afternoon sunshine may experience warmer temps in the
mid to upper 80s. Despite mostly cloudy conditions for the 4th,
still expect to feel some muggy conditions as dew point temps will
remain in the lower 70s. Sunday will be a hair warmer in the mid to
upper 80s with mostly dry weather for the end of the weekend, minus
the slight chance for some isolated pop-up storms Sunday afternoon.

Upper level ridging will continue to remain in place over the
central CONUS for  much of the coming week.  The impact from this
persisting feature we are tracking will be the potential for
oppressive heat to affect a large portion of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

Scattered showers are starting to pop up across the area, and
while they are of no concern to the terminals at present they will
eventually push eastward and impact the terminals by mid morning.
Coverage of the storms will be hit or miss, so not all terminals
will be impacted for the entire morning and afternoon, but the
threat for storms to move in will be there through late afternoon.
There could be a few pockets of MVFR CIGs which will briefly cause
some lower flight categories for short periods.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Klaus/Leighton
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-050915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning through this
 afternoon however, severe weather is not expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Hot and humid conditions will approach the area Wednesday with
 temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s. Heat index values
 Thursday and Friday may approach 105 to 110 degrees.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo