Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1147 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Strong cold front was slowly sagging southeast across the area
this morning. The cold front was located from Boscobel southwest
to between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Temperatures ahead of and
behind of the front were almost 20 degrees different. This
baroclinicity will set the stage for heavy rain, thunderstorms and
severe weather today across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Key Messages:

1. HSLC tornado threat for late this morning into the afternoon
across the area.
2. Severe winds are also possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon.
3. Gusty winds will accompany the warm sector later today along
with the fropa.
4. 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain looks possible across the area.

Discussion:

Guidance has reverted back to a negatively tilted trof in the
latest suite of guidance. This in turn leads to a strengthen
surface low as it moves through the area. As mentioned in last
nights AFD, this scenario means that surface winds will be more
backed leading to better directional shear and increasing the
threat for tornadoes late this morning into the afternoon. Here is
the current idea of what will happen today.

Post frontal precip will continue through the early morning hours.
As the upper level wave approaches the area, the response to
falling heights will result in the warm sector actually being
pulled back north and west of where the cold front will be around
12z this AM. There will be an area where the cold front moves
through this am, then it will retreat as 'warm front' this
afternoon before finally moving through the area and ushering a
cooler airmass to the area. Storm development along and ahead of
the cold front will be the main area for severe weather risk.

Again, the parameters are there for HSLC tornadoes. Low CAPE, but
the CAPE that exists is right off the deck. This can advantage of
the 0 - 0.5 km shear of almost 20 knots along with the 0-3km shear
of 50 to 75 knots. If the updraft can tap the CAPE along with the
shear, then llvl updraft rotation looks very likely. The more
backed the surface winds, the better the chance for tornadoes to
develop. That said, with the crazy amount of shear and strong
winds won't be hard to mix down to the sfc in any downdraft. With
the high shear, expect very fast moving storms. SPC has the area
in a slight risk for this afternoon. A thing to watch is the
tornado threat will likely be tied to the sfc low. With it moving
quickly north, the actual tornado threat may be transient to the
NE through time. Another thing to mention, there may actually not
be any lightning with tornadic cells. In HSLC events this happens
frequently. Conversely, lightning, consistent lightning would be
an indicator of a sustained updraft and thus a better tor threat
with that cell. The timing of this threat looks to be noon through
about 6 PM or so across the far NE.

As with a system like this, the baroclinicity will result in
momentum responses. CAMs show the warm sector being able to mix
down wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. As such, have gone with a
wind advisory for the warm sector and then to cover the fropa
through about 4z. The southern portions of the advisory will
likely be cancelled before 4z.

As far as rainfall goes, the heaviest rainfall will be post
frontal this AM. This area has anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain today. The storms this afternoon will be fast moving and even
though the PWATs are near records, do not think that much rain
will be seen in the warm sector. The current forecast is for under
.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Key Messages:

1. Dry with temperatures generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s

2. Next precipitation system expected Saturday into early Sunday

3. Dry again Sunday PM into next week with temps above normal

Wednesday through Friday, high pressure will be the main influence
to our area.  A weak disturbance will track just north of the area
Thursday afternoon and night, but should only bring a wind shift from
southerly to northwesterly. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine and rather
light winds will prevail. Temperatures will be near normal for mid
November, with some day to day fluctuation. Wednesday highs will be
in the mid 40s to low 50s. Thursday there will be warmer temps ahead
of the weak cold front, with highs reaching the 50s. Friday, a
Canadian high pressure will drift across the area with highs in the
40s.

Saturday, return flow and a system in the southern Plains will bring
the chance for mainly rain to the region. Overall, its looking like
a rather raw day with temperatures only in the mid 40s to low 50s
and a brisk SE wind of 10 to 20 MPH.

Sunday, rain will be mostly east of the area by daybreak, with gusty
west winds bringing sunshine back. Highs will be in the 50s.

Dry conditions with rather pleasant fall-like conditions are
currently forecast for early next week as a large high pressure moves
across the nation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

The cold front is stationary along the Mississippi river. Low
pressure will move along the front which may push it briefly back
north before moving east across Illinois. East of the front VFR
conditions are occurring with MVFR/IFR west of the front. MVFR/IFR
conditions with rain and embedded TSRA will be seen through
00z/11 as the main low moves along the front. After 00z/11
widespread MVFR conditions will be seen that will slowly improve
to VFR through 12z/11 from west to east.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Record Highs for November 10...

Moline.........71 in 2012
Cedar Rapids...72 in 2012
Dubuque........69 in 2012
Burlington.....73 in 2012

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Cedar-Clinton-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Jackson-Lee-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van
     Buren.

IL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
329 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
329 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A strong cold front will bring rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds
to the area today. There is a slight risk for severe weather
mainly east of a line from Dubuque to Iowa City to Memphis. The
main threats from these storms would be damaging wind gusts to 60
mph and tornadoes. These storms will be very fast moving today.
You may not hear thunder before the storms are upon you. Be sure
to be weather aware today. The main threat timing will be from
noon to 6pm today.

This afternoon and into the evening
winds ahead and behind of the front could gust to 45 mph. A wind
advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible from noon to 6 pm today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
226 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARK VIEW               41.69N 90.54W
11/10/2020  E50 MPH          SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S CARTHAGE            40.26N 91.11W
11/10/2020                   HANCOCK            IL   PUBLIC

            SHEETS OF METAL PEELED OFF OF A METAL
            OUTBUILDING.

&&

DC

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