Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Quad Cities, IA

321 
WWUS53 KDVN 101833
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
133 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILC011-015-073-131-161-195-IAC031-045-097-105-139-163-101915-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-200810T1915Z/
Rock Island IL-Mercer IL-Whiteside IL-Henry IL-Carroll IL-Bureau IL-
Jackson IA-Cedar IA-Scott IA-Jones IA-Muscatine IA-Clinton IA-
133 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR ROCK ISLAND...NORTH CENTRAL MERCER...WHITESIDE...NORTHERN
HENRY...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN BUREAU...JACKSON...EASTERN CEDAR...
SCOTT...EASTERN JONES...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND CLINTON
COUNTIES...

At 132 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Fulton to near Low Moor to near Coal Valley, moving
east at 70 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This line of storms has a history 
         of producing up to 80 to 100 mph wind gusts and significant 
         tree damage.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses 
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect 
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, Clinton, East Moline,
Sterling, Rock Falls, Maquoketa, Morrison, Durant, Mount Carroll,
Silvis, Geneseo, Eldridge, DeWitt, Milan, Colona, Camanche and Le
Claire.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 276 and 306.
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 48.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 21.
 Interstate 88 between mile markers 1 and 44.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage across. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy 
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 8963 4132 9097 4171 9095 4192 9098
      4223 9111 4221 9036 4219 9032 4218 8969
      4193 8969 4193 8963 4159 8963 4158 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 272DEG 59KT 4215 9071 4183 9039 4140 9045 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...90MPH
 
$$

Uttech

388 
WWUS53 KDVN 101907
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILC131-IAC031-105-101916-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-200810T1915Z/
Mercer IL-Cedar IA-Jones IA-
207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MERCER...EASTERN
CEDAR AND EASTERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4134 8963 4133 9096 4160 9092 4160 9090
      4222 9090 4221 9036 4219 9032 4218 8969
      4193 8969 4193 8963 4159 8963 4158 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 278DEG 52KT 4215 8981 4175 8978 4138 8979 

$$

ILC011-015-073-161-195-IAC045-097-139-163-101915-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-200810T1915Z/
Rock Island IL-Whiteside IL-Henry IL-Carroll IL-Bureau IL-Jackson IA-
Scott IA-Muscatine IA-Clinton IA-
207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR ROCK ISLAND...WHITESIDE...NORTHERN HENRY...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN
BUREAU...JACKSON...SCOTT...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND CLINTON
COUNTIES...

At 206 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Shannon to near Emerson to near Sheffield, moving
east at 60 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This line of storms has a history 
         of producing up to 90 mph wind gusts and significant tree 
         damage.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses 
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect 
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, Clinton, East Moline,
Sterling, Rock Falls, Maquoketa, Morrison, Durant, Mount Carroll,
Silvis, Geneseo, Eldridge, DeWitt, Milan, Colona, Camanche and Le
Claire.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 279 and 306.
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 48.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 21.
 Interstate 88 between mile markers 1 and 44.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage across. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy 
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 8963 4133 9096 4160 9092 4160 9090
      4222 9090 4221 9036 4219 9032 4218 8969
      4193 8969 4193 8963 4159 8963 4158 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 278DEG 52KT 4215 8981 4175 8978 4138 8979 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...90MPH
 
$$

Uttech

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1150 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A warm and muggy air mass continues to be found over the Midwest,
with a cold front now making its way southeast through MN and
central NE. Nearly stationary severe storms are found near the
Twin Cities to the north, while the rest of the frontal zone has
been less convectively active through 3 AM. That may change as the
night unfolds, as forcing increases along the front to the west,
which may lead to a convective increase toward Sioux Falls SD.
That area would then be the one needing to be watched for an
evolution eastward into our CWA today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A cold front will move through the area tonight. Thunderstorms,
so far avoiding most of our area via the persistent EML/cap, are
far more likely today as this front passes through. Ahead of these
storms, provided we do not cloud over early this morning, will
once again rise to the upper 80s to near 90, before the cold front
and storms arrive by early afternoon west to early evening east.

Strong to severe thunderstorms appear likley as the combination
of progressive cold pool in increasing mid level westerly flow
interact with the hot and humid air mass in place. This could
result in a significant wind threat if upstream conditions allow
for an already defined progressive MCV/bowing segment this morning
from the FSD area. That strong forcing will be needed for
thunderstorms, as again, we will have the strong cap in place to
limit initial surface based activity today. This limitation is
likely to reason for SPC probabilities keeping our area mainly in
the Marginal risk region. For the capping concern, I'll limit pops
to likely on this initial forecast for the afternoon hours, vs
much higher. Unfortunately for those needing a big rain, the fast
movement will likely keep amounts lower than 0.5 in the bowing
area, with comma head more likely to bring the 0.5 to 1.5" amount
today. That could also move through, but with models highly varied
on where things go to day, and CAMs supporting a wide
distribution of storm cluster location. Again, today's pops are
mostly timed and placed to coincide with the frontal passage.

With time the storms will shift south, and with inflow from the
southwest, they should end this evening, though some stratiform
may linger into the night south. This front will certainly end
the short stretch of oppressive humidity for now.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tuesday...As post system/frontal boundary sfc ridge slides east acrs
the region and into the southwestern GRT LKS, this day should be dry
and characterized by light easterly boundary layer flow, drier DPTs
and temps in the low to mid 80s. Some high overrunning clouds acrs
the south filtering the insolation, more sunshine north of I80.
Flattened/zonal mid level steering flow will look to usher a wave
aloft acrs the MO RVR Valley later Tue night, with signs of a pre-
system elevated warm air advection wing generating elevated showers
and thunderstorms acrs at least the west half of IA. It will have to
battle some mid level ridging over the MS RVR Valley, and thus feel
only a low chance that some of this activity may get into the far
west or southwestern CWA late Tue night-early Wed morning. If we
don't get much overrunning clouds Tue night, easterly sfc layer
fetch driven low temps may get into the lower 60s or even upper 50s
in some locations.

Wednesday through Friday...Wed a low confidence day as some models
such as the 00z ECMWF continue the wave acrs toward the MS RVR
Valley for some precip chances locally, while others such as the 00z
GFS are mainly dry with ongoing ridging influence. Here's a spot
where the GFS will be preferred. Latest suite of upper jet pattern
ensemble runs and trends suggest upper ridge blocking pattern
forming mid to late week over the GRT LKS, diffluent split flow acrs
the mid MO and MS RVR Valleys including the local area, with warm
dome based acrs the south half of the Rockies down to northern
Mexico. The GFS/GEFS suggest that besides some isolated to wdly
sctrd pop up showers/storms, the DVN CWA to be in-between more
organized forcing stream and mainly dry into the start of the
weekend. This while the 00z ECMWF develops a cut-off upper low that
slowly meanders eastward in the block and makes it acrs the area by
later Friday and Friday night with rounds of heavy rain under it.
Would have to see more runs and some model continuity before buying
off on this scenario. Generally above normal temps thru the period.

Saturday and Sunday...Again a low confidence period with medium range
model discrepancy. The Euro continues with it's passing closed low
for a wet Saturday before a digging trof boots it eastward while
bring more precip chances along it's own axis for Sunday. This while
the GEFS suggests digging troffiness and northwest flow acrs the
upper Midwest, possibly ushering in a system or two for precip
chances late Saturday into Sunday as well. Will keep chance POPs
going with the uncertainty, and continue the trend of above normal
temps for now.   ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Fast moving line of severe storms with damaging winds 50-70+ kts
will impact CID terminal near 1745z, and MLI terminal near 1830z.
IFR/VLIFR conditions expected with these storms for less than an
hour. Outflow boundary may also produce severe gusts at DBQ and
BRL 18z-19z with MVFR to local IFR conditions in storms possible.
In wake of the storms, NW winds will stay gusty at 15-30 kts for
a period of an hour. Conditions overall should return to VFR by
early evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111630-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A line of fast moving storms will push across the Outlook area
this afternoon between Noon and 3 pm. The primary hazard from
these storms will be very damaging winds of 70 to 90 mph.
A couple of tornadoes are also possible. The area most favored
for damaging winds will be along and north of a line from
Washington, Iowa to Aledo, Illinois or roughly near to north of
Interstate 80 where the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a
moderate risk of severe weather. Much of the rest of the southern
Outlook area is in an enhanced risk, as an outflow boundary will
bring a chance for damaging winds further south into far southeast
Iowa and west central Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms from Tuesday
night through Friday, but severe weather potential

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
100 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST BRANCH             41.67N 91.35W
08/10/2020  M70 MPH          CEDAR              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT PLEASANT AIRPORT  40.95N 91.51W
08/10/2020  M58 MPH          HENRY              IA   AWOS

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST LIBERTY            41.57N 91.26W
08/10/2020                   MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN ALONG WITH
            SEVERAL POWER FLASHES.

&&

TJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S MIDWAY              42.09N 91.70W
08/10/2020  M112 MPH         LINN               IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
111 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HIAWATHA            42.03N 91.69W
08/10/2020                   LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FT DIAMETER TREES UPROOTED. SHINGLES TORN
            OFF HOUSE AND POWER OUT.

&&

BROOKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
114 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE IOWA CITY          41.64N 91.51W
08/10/2020                   JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES BLOWN TO THE GROUND,
            UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER. NO POWER.
            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION RECORDED 69 KNOTS
            BEFORE THE POWER WENT OUT.

&&

TJG