Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Other than warm temperatures and muggy feeling outside, it has been
a relatively uneventful night so far over eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois and northeast Missouri with KDVN radar mainly clear and a
few clouds overhead on infrared. Showers and thunderstorms were
ongoing over central Wisconsin and north central Kansas where 500
hPa shortwaves were interacting with a northeast-southwest oriented
cold front. Closer to home, this front stretched from La Crosse WI
to Des Moines IA, with only a few rain showers in tow. Temperatures
as of 2 AM ranged from warm 78 in Freeport, to 84 in Muscatine.
Dewpoints in the 70s were leading to heat indices in the upper 80s
to even near 90 in some spots! (e.g. Muscatine IA 2 AM observation
was 84/75 with a heat index of 92!).

This front will continue approaching the area through the morning,
and will be responsible for how our weather evolves through the
short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Key Messages:

1) Lingering showers/storms through morning, dry for the remainder
of the day and tonight. Storms could produce large hail.

2) Temperatures cooler today with less humidity.

Discussion.

Front should sweep across the area early this morning, bringing a
shift to northwest winds and decreasing cloud cover. A scattered
shower or thunderstorm will remain possible with the front, but
overall coverage should not be as widespread as once anticipated.
This is because 1) The more organized lift has stayed out of the
area, and 2) There appears to be a cap of warm air around 700 hPa as
seen on the SPC mesoanalysis, which is inhibiting development. That
being said, latest HRRR has been persistent on trying to develop
some activity along the front following the Interstate 80 corridor
through the morning with a resurgence of WAA. Bearing this in mind,
I will keep at least chance POPs going. If something is able to
develop, it will be elevated in nature and have potential to take
hold of some impressive instability (mesoanalysis currently
analyzing around 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE) and steep lapse rates aloft
ahead of the front. If this can happen, storms will be capable of
producing large hail.

Clearing skies are expected by this afternoon as a drier air mass
and increasing subsidence builds into the area. While
temperatures will remain fairly warm, the humidity will be most
noticeable as dewpoints fall into the low to mid 60s during the
afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 80s as we mix down air
from around 925 hPa.

For tonight, aforementioned front will continue to sag south but
should begin to slow down and become less defined as it approaches
the Interstate 70 corridor. Guidance points at convection developing
along this front ahead of a shortwave over east central Kansas this
evening, which should grow and congeal into an MCS as it moves east
overnight. Other than a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
over southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri, our area looks to remain
precip free with clouds increasing Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

1) Precipitation chances persist through week with exact location
dependent on where the surface front sets up.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures for Monday/Tuesday
before the heat returns mid-week.

Discussion.

As the previous discussion mentioned, overall agreement on the
synoptic pattern carries over in the latest guidance. Zonal flow
with embedded shortwaves are expected before flow shifts northwest
with the arrival of ridging aloft by the end of the week.

Monday and Tuesday...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area
as the MCS weakens through the morning. Dry condtions are expected
for the afternoon and evening with surface high pressure still
overhead. Afternoon highs will be near to just below normal with
values in the low to mid 80s expected.

Overnight, signal is in all guidance of the cold front retreating
north as a warm front towards the area, with another shortwave
ejecting out of the Great Plains and tracking along it. A renewed
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible during the evening
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, with activity entering the
area after midnight and containing through Tuesday morning. Severe
potential as this moves through looks low as models depict low
overall instability.

Temperatures Tuesday will be dependent on how much convection and
cloud cover persists through the day, with models not in definite
agreement. A blended approach gives afternoon highs in the lower 80s
with notable mugginess to the air as dewpoints near 70 return.

Wednesday on...

Low confidence chances of showers and storms will persist through at
least the later part of the work week, as guidance struggles on
agreement of where the surface front sets up and eventual track of
disturbances aloft. There are signals of drier conditions coming for
the weekend as ridging aloft builds into the area.

Temperatures will once again warm up to well above normal values,
with 850 hPa temperatures poised to rise above 20 C by the weekend.
Afternoon highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the mid to upper
80s, with a return to 90s possible by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Scattered thunderstorms occurring ahead of a cold front will
impact the BRL site early this morning. The front will also bring
a period of MVFR low clouds, which will impact all terminals until
roughly 14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today and
tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Sheets

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible this morning
as a cold front moves through the area. There is a marginal risk
of severe weather, with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over southeast
Iowa, west central Illinois, and northeast Missouri Monday. The
primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall.

Daily chances for thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Friday. However, it is too early to determine the potential for
severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning.

Speck

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