Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

At 2 PM, A stationary frontal boundry stretched a surface low
near Huron South Dakota southeastward to KDBQ and then to south
of Chicago. There is no change in dewpoint or temperature across
the frontal boundry. Dewpoints were in the mid to upper 70s with
air temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area.
Heat indices were around 100. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
were popping up across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

The main forecast concerns were chances of storms through the
period. There remains disagreements between all of the models
(synoptic/CAMs) on the timing and placement of precipitation
through the short term.

Currently, isolated showers and thunderstorms are on going across
the area this afternoon and expect them to continue into the
early evening. The shear is weak across the area today but once
again the downdraft CAPE is high which may lead to microburst s
this afternoon into this evening.

A heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM this evening.

Tonight into Thursday, a lead piece of shortwave energy will move
across the after 06 UTC tonight and could bring scattered showers
and storms to the area during the morning hours. A second,
stronger convectively enhanced vort max will roll across the area
18z Thursday to 00 UTC Friday. The GFS and operational NAM track
this feature north of I-80 while the ECMWF and Canadian bring the
vort max south of Interstate 80. CAPE will be similar to today
with 3000 to 4000 J/KG forecast across the area but 0 to 6 km
shear slightly stronger as the moves into the area and increasing
the shear to 20 to 30 knots. Severe storms will be possible. The
main threats will be damaging winds and increasing helicity in
the afternoon and more cyclonically curving hodographs mean that a
tornado may occur as well. The storm prediction center as the
northern half of the area in a slight risk of severe storms and
the rest of the area under a marginal risk. The primary threat for
severe weather is a window from

Additionally, precipitable water values of 1.80 to 2.00 inches
will lead to threat for heavy rain and potential flash flooding.
The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk of heavy rainfall
across the whole area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Key Messages:

1.  Storms should be ongoing at the beginning of the period.
2. Slightly cooler weekend with additional chances for precipitation
for the weekend.
3. Heat dome returns to the area and pushes the MCS track
north of the CWA.

Discussion:

At the beginning of the period, showers and storms should be ongoing
across the CWA.  The coverage and intensity of any storms should be
tied to a MCV across the area.  With the MCV being strongly tied to
convection tonight, confidence in where it will be is low due its
mesoscale nature.  If it does move across the area, this will
increase shear enough to lead to organized updrafts and thus a
better risk for severe weather.  The main threat looks to be strong
wind gusts with any severe weather.  That said, there is a pseudo
warm front and a wave is expected to move along this boundary.  Any
thermal boundaries in this environment may be enough to pose a low
threat for tornadoes.  For this to occur a lot has to come together
and I am not confident in this occurring.  On the other hand, high
PWATs, with shear and slow moving storms will set the stage for
heavy rain from any storm.  WPC has the area in a slight risk ERO.
If the MCV does not move across the area, expect weaker convection
and less coverage.

After this, the pattern shifts to NW flow with a few waves that move
through it.  This means there is a chance for rain and storms again
this weekend.  The timing of these waves are different between each
model and thus lead to low forecast skill for the weekend.  There
will be sun and quiet weather this weekend along with a chance for
rain.

After this, the ridge  moves back in across the west and shifts the
low track north of the CWA as we see the return of 90s with
dewpoints in the 70s.  Another round of heat advisories could be
needed next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. This
afternoon, scattered diurnally driven cumulus field will be over
the area with ceilings around 5kft. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible today but they are expected to remain east of KMLI and
KBRL so they were left out of the TAFs.

Isolated showers and storms are possible after 09 UTC Thursday
through the morning hours but confidence is low at this time that
will impact any specific TAF site.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
     Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Cousins
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Cousins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-090815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Hot and humid conditions will be seen this afternoon heat index
readings up to 103, a heat advisory is in effect for the area.

There may also be some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, mainly
along and east of the Mississippi River.  The strongest storms may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday through
Tuesday with afternoon heat index readings in the 90s.

Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Sunday. The Storm
Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms for
Thursday. The primary severe risk Thursday looks to be damaging
winds. Beyond Thursday it is too early to determine any severe
risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Quad Cities IA/IL
203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

ILZ002-081930-
Stephenson-
203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...Thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds will affect
central Stephenson County...

At 202 PM CDT...Thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds were
located over Freeport.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Freeport, Cedarville, Dakota, Rock City, Ridott, Scioto Mills, Red
Oak, Winneshiek, Dakota Dornink Airport, Damascus, Albertus Airport
and Stephenson  County Fairgrounds.

Funnel clouds of this nature are short lived and rarely touch the
ground. However, if you notice one approaching the ground, move
indoors to a place of safety.

The National Weather Service will continue to closely monitor the
situation. Please forward reports of funnel cloud sightings to the
nearest law enforcement agency for relay to the National Weather
Service.

LAT...LON 4243 8947 4222 8948 4223 8972 4243 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 240DEG 0KT 4230 8963

Gibbs

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

IAC097-082000-
Jackson-
228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 228 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Springbrook, or
10 miles northeast of Maquoketa, moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maquoketa, Preston, Andrew, Springbrook, Spragueville, Van Buren and
Jackson County Fairgrounds.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4220 9035 4203 9034 4203 9067 4222 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 006DEG 9KT 4215 9049

Gibbs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
233 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

ILC195-082000-
Whiteside-
233 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WHITESIDE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Erie, or near
Morrison, moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morrison, Prophetstown, Erie, Garden Plain, Lyndon, Union Grove,
Fenton, Hillsdale, Portland Corners, Prophetstown State Recreation
Area, Spring Hill, Hamilton Corners, Whiteside County Fairgrounds,
Leon Corners, Newton Corners, Denrock and Unionville.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 14 and 29.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

LAT...LON 4159 8989 4160 9017 4163 9016 4164 9017
      4164 9016 4165 9016 4166 9019 4184 9015
      4184 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 006DEG 8KT 4174 9004

Gibbs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
242 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREEPORT                42.30N 89.64W
07/08/2020                   STEPHENSON         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE HEALTHY LIMB FELL ON TWO PARKED
            VEHICLES IN THE CITY OF FREEPORT.

&&

HAASE