River Flood Warning 52, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

The remnant low pressure center from Cristobal was over the
southeast tip of IA at 19Z. Widespread moderate to heavy rain was
occurring over all of eastern IA in this pseudo tropical airmass,
with light to moderate bands feeding northwestward across northern
IL. The band of heavy rain in IA was producing widespread 2 plus
inch rains with some locally heavier amounts along with rainfall
rates over 1 inch per hour across our western 2 rows of counties. So
far, no significant issues other than minor ponding of water has
been reported. An axis strong surface pressure falls over the Quad
Cities indicated this low pressure center will continue on its rapid
N-NE path along the MS river across far northwest IL this afternoon,
reaching into SW WI this evening. Further out, a separate strong
upper level shortwave and surface low were advancing toward the
region from western KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Headlines:

The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled early over our southern
row of counties in MO into west central IL and Lee county in IA as
the main area of rain has shifted northward. The watch over the
rest of southeast IA (along and south of I-80) and our west
central IL counties along the MS River has had its expiration
moved up to 00Z, as the potential for heavy rain will have shifted
north out of this area by 7 pm. Further north, the segment over
east central IA into Jo Daviess county currently expires at 11 pm,
but this may be allowed to drop off much earlier.

The Wind Advisory for Bureau and Putnam counties will remain
intact, valid until 10 pm. While winds have so far remained below
25 mph with gusts only in the 30s, winds are increasing with the
afternoon mixing and tightening pressure gradient. Winds will
weaken for a period by early evening, but may strengthen again
following the wind shift and may increase to 20 to 30 mph from the
southwest this evening.

Discussion:

Once the current axis of heavy rain exits northward this evening,
the focus will turn to the potential for showers and
thunderstorms developing later this evening upstream over KS and
MO under the upper level dry slow and low level warm front ahead
of the central plains system. Many convective allowing hires
models have these tracking northeast into the forecast from
roughly 10 pm through 1 am and chance pops are in place for this.
Some of these could be strong, but the potential for flash
flooding will be low due to the fast movement and environment with
much lower precipitable water than currently in place. Another
round of showers and possible isolated thunderstorms will arrive
with the upper trough Wednesday, with best chances over the west
and north. These should have a very low potential for heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will linger in the upper 60s to lower 70s
tonight, then fall some Wednesday with the passage of a cold front
that will bring lower dewpoints and much more comfortable
humidity levels by Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Lingering showers will exit the northeast parts of the area
Wednesday evening as skies clear from west to east. Initial windy
conditions will subside after sunset. Overnight low temperatures
will be slightly cooler than normal.

Thursday through next Tuesday
Assessment...medium confidence

The model consensus has dry conditions for the area with below
normal temperatures for the weekend. However there are a couple of
concerns.

First; all models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through
the area Thursday afternoon behind the departing larger system.
Moisture availability is in question but I would not be surprised if
some isolated rain showers develop during peak heating. If this does
occur then areas generally north of an Independence, IA to
Princeton, IL line would be at risk for isolated rain showers.

Second; a cold front moves through the area late this week bringing
cooler weekend temperatures. The question is will the forcing along
the front be sufficient enough to generate any rain. Here the models
are mixed with their respective opinions.

The ECMWF does have a risk of rain as it brings the front through
Friday afternoon/night. The CMC global brings the front through on
Thursday with no precipitation. The UKMET brings the front through
Thursday night/Friday but has an upper level disturbance generating
precipitation on Saturday. The GFS brings the front through Friday
afternoon/night with some precipitation followed by more
precipitation from an upper level disturbance on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

In the first hour of the TAF period, an isallobaric surge of winds
will blow from the west/northwest as the remnants of Cristobal
move into Wisconsin. After 01Z, winds will greatly decrease to
under 10 kts in most locations. There rest of the night will be
mainly dry, with a few showers possible south of Interstate 80.
Some MVFR fog or status may continue in the chaotic light flow
between Cristobal's remnants and the upcoming cold front due
tomorrow afternoon. This front will change winds to the northwest
tomorrow, and could bring a continuation of MVFR clouds.
Visibility outside of fog tonight, are expected to be good.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Changes:

A flood watch has been issued for the Cedar river near Conesville,
IA.

The flood warning for the Mississippi river at Keithsburg, IL has
been cancelled.

Discussion:

Rainfall from the remnants of Cristobal is moving up through
eastern Iowa with rain bands across the northern half of Illinois.
Forecast rainfall input into the morning river forecasts was for
the next 24 hours with slightly lower amounts.

As a result the Mississippi is forecast to continue falling while
tributary rivers across eastern Iowa will see rises. Most
tributary rivers are forecast to remain below flood stage.
HOWEVER if rainfall from the remnants of Cristobal is heavier than
forecast, further rises to and above flood stage are possible on
tributary rivers across eastern Iowa.

Based on past rainfall history across Missouri most rainfall
amounts from Cristobal have been on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches.
There is a small possibility for a narrow band of 2.5 to 3 inches
of rain occurring across eastern Iowa. The timing, placement and
orientation of this potential narrow band will be very important
to future river forecasts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Benton-
     Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-
     Johnson-Jones-Linn.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Jo Daviess.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-Putnam.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
447 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
447 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Periods of heavy rain are likely Today from the remnants of
tropical storm Cristobal. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
the counties along and west of the Mississippi River. Rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour are possible with the heaviest bands
of rain. There is a Moderate risk for flash flooding roughly for
areas west of the Mississippi River and a Slight risk to the east.

A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain is anticipated along and west
of a line from Dubuque, Iowa to Keokuk, Iowa. Isolated amounts
near 4 or 5 inches are possible. There is a low risk for a few
brief spin up tornadoes area-wide through the afternoon.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for Bureau and Putnam Counties
through the evening for east to southeast wind gusts of 40 to 50
mph. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible futher west, extending toward
the Mississippi River. The winds will turn to the southwest late
this afternoon and evening.

Flooding continues along portions of the Wapsipinicon River and
Mississippi River. Please see the latest Flood Statements and
Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today. Rainfall amounts over 1
inch and reports of flash flooding would be appreciated.

Uttech

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
703 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLOOD            5 S VINTON              42.09N 92.02W
06/09/2020                   BENTON             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COMPLETELY OVER THE ROAD AT 64TH ST
            AND 24TH AVE. ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED.

&&

JLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W STANLEY             42.63N 91.86W
06/09/2020  M4.60 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
725 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE VINTON            42.16N 92.01W
06/09/2020                   BENTON             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN
            THE CITY OF VINTON.

0711 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N INDEPENDENCE        42.48N 91.89W
06/09/2020  M3.92 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

0710 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOPKINTON               42.35N 91.25W
06/09/2020  M2.30 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   PUBLIC

0709 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE FAIRFAX            41.93N 91.76W
06/09/2020  M2.25 INCH       LINN               IA   PUBLIC

0650 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JESUP                   42.48N 92.07W
06/09/2020  M2.69 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

0649 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MOUNT PLEASANT MUNI 40.93N 91.51W
06/09/2020  M2.10 INCH       HENRY              IA   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
743 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

IAZ042-053-054-065>068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024-100230-
Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-
Mercer-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Tipton,
Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport,
Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton,
Hennepin, and Aledo
743 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...Very Windy through 9 PM...

As Cristobal's remnants move away, a brief period of strong
southwest winds will blow at up to 45 mph through 9 PM. This will
be a short burst of winds, for most locations but will continue
the high winds seen in Bureau and Putnam counties today.

By 10 PM, light winds will spread over most of the area.

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