River Flood Warning 46, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Upper level trough and cold front pushing through the upper
Midwest with a line of broken tstms from western WI to western IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Today: Scattered thunderstorms especially this morning ahead of
the cold front that will push across the cwa. SPC has a marginal
risk of severe storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight: In the wake of the cold front gradually lowering
dewpoints and light n to ne winds will bring a more comfortable
night. Lows will range from the upper 50s along Hwy 20 to the mid
60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Key messages:

1) Dry and pleasant this weekend into early next week

2) Tropical system Cristobal forecast to impact our area by the
   middle of next week.

This weekend: Sprawling high pressure in Ontario and into the
Great Lakes will bring dry weather and comfortable humidity.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Monday and Monday night: Southerly winds return bringing
increasing heat and humidity. Highs will push to around 90 with
dewpoints rising into the 60s. Meanwhile tropical system
Cristobal (currently in se Mexico/northern Guatemala) is expected
to track due north across the western Gulf and then to Louisiana.

Tuesday through Wednesday: GFS/ECMWF have been very consistent
for days taking the remnants of Cristobal due north into eastern
Iowa. Typically these tropical systems track off to the northeast
remaining southeast of the dvn cwa. However, with the models
indicating a deep trough in the Rockies and building ridge in the
eastern United States, it appears the only path is due north. With
the models deepening a surface low and a cold front approaching
from the west, this may set the stage for very heavy rainfall with
deep tropical moisture associated with this system, and possibly
severe weather. Amazingly, the models take the remnants into
eastern WI and then to James Bay. However, this is still several
days away so plenty of time to monitor the track and intensity of
this system, and determining exact rain amounts.

Thursday: In the wake of the system cooler and drier weather
returns with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected through early this
afternoon ahead of a cold front. IFR conds in/near stronger tstms
but VFR outside of storms. Southwest winds ahead of the front
then northwest behind the front.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
327 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-060830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
327 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected especially this morning ahead
of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk
of severe storms across the entire outlook area. The main threats
are damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning. Any slower
moving storm may produce flash flooding.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Tuesday through Wednesday: The remnants of tropical system
Cristobal is expected to track from Louisiana to eastern Iowa.
This may bring heavy rainfall and severe weather but it is too
early to determine details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed especially this morning.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
735 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW WARNER            41.45N 90.40W
06/05/2020  M1.28 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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