River Flood Warning 18, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
632 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

A very broad area of low pressure stretched from the central Great
Plans into southeast Kansas early this morning, which brought warm,
moist air and a subsequent cold front across the area Thursday.
Light to moderate rain showers and even some strong thunderstorms
accompanied the frontal passage, producing small hail and torrential
rainfall amounts over one inch. Snow was also falling not too far
away over northwest Iowa, which was covering roadways per IA DOT
road maps. Across the Midwest, the cold front as of 2 AM stretched
from Elgin IL to Kirksville MO, creating a wide variance of
temperatures. Values ranged from 35 in Independence, to 59 in
Macomb.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

1) Rain and snow will move out of the area this morning.

2) Clouds slowly clearing late this afternoon and evening.

3) Dry and quiet through the early weekend.

Discussion:

Rain and snow will come to an end by mid-morning as the surface low
and attendant upper level shortwave pass across the area. Amounts
of a few tenths will be possible northwest of a line from Vinton
to Manchester, with lesser amounts south and east. It will remain
very windy through the day due to strong CAA behind the front and
a tight pressure gradient. Gusts of 30 to 40 MPH will be possible
at times before the gradient beings to relax by the late
afternoon and evening. This will be courtesy of high pressure
building across the Midwest, which will be the primary driver of
our weather into the early weekend.

The first few full days of spring will feel a little more like mid
to late February as afternoon highs range from the mid 30s to near
40 through Saturday. Wind chills will make it feel more like the mid
teens to near 20! For tonight, lows will drop into the lower to
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

An active weather pattern will continue across North America through
the long term period. At 500 mb, split zonal flow will dominate the
long term period until the middle of next week when a trough digs
into the western United States with southwesterly flow aloft
developing from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Shortwave troughs will move across the region about every 24 hours
Sunday through Thursday with timing and placement differences
between the models resulting in a lower confidence forecast.
Precipitation will fall as mainly rain through the period with the
exception of Sunday and Sunday night. Model soundings on Sunday show
precipitation starting off as snow across southern Iowa, west
central Illinois and far northeast Missouri. Precipitation will will
mix with and change over to all rain during the mid to late morning
as precipitation spreads northeastward. Precipitation may mix with
and change back over to all snow in northwest Illinois as the storm
system exits to the east Sunday night.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Sunday with highs in
the mid 40s. Normal highs this time of year are around 50 degrees.
Temperatures will be warmer next week with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning wih isolated IFR at
KBRL. Visibilities have recently improve to VFR. Ceilings and
are forecast improve to VFR from west to east after 18 UTC as
high pressure builds into the area. Breezy northwesterly winds of
10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots will continue
through the late afternoon before winds decrease to around 5
knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Rainfall from this morning and afternoon was lighter than
forecast across the CWA, with highest amounts over a half inch
falling along and north of highway 20. As a result, evening river
forecasts have been lowered across the board on the tributary
rivers. Some higher amounts of 1+ inches of rain fell near the
headwaters of the Iowa River and thus have maintained the Flood
Warning at Marengo for now, as that water makes its way down the
river. Flood watches continue on the Wapsi River near De Witt,
Cedar River at Conesville, and Rock River near Joslin. However,
these sites may be able to be cancelled in future forecasts, if
the expected rainfall doesn't pan out tonight.

On the Mississippi River...little change to the forecasts were
made this evening. The spring snowmelt flood crests are still
expected late next week into the first week of April. The exact
timing and crest levels are still uncertain, although it is
starting to look like lower crests will be seen. The next chance
of rain will not come until Tuesday next week, which will keep the
Mississippi from rising even more in the coming days.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...Gross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
315 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-210815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
315 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Strong northwest winds may gust over 30 to near 40 mph today in
the wake of a cold front. Light snow showers will also be possible
over portions of eastern Iowa through the morning, which may
result in a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Area rivers are on the rise. Please see the latest Flood
Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

PS/DC

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