Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

117 
WHUS73 KDTX 130823
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

LEZ444-132030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.200413T1400Z-200414T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0006.200413T1400Z-200414T0800Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  26 knots from the west with gusts up to 41 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Water levels across the western basin will
  likely fall below the critical mark for safe navigation during
  the period of gale force winds today. Water levels may reach as
  low as 18 inches below low water datum on this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-132030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.200413T1600Z-200414T0800Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 41 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Lake Huron from 
  Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Inner 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI and Outer 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw 
  Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-132030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.200413T1600Z-200414T0800Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port 
  Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-132030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.200413T1400Z-200414T0200Z/
Lake St Clair-
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-132030-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.200413T1800Z-200414T0400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
423 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 35 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 50 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gale force winds are expected to hold on
  for several hours past the expiration of the Storm Warning. Wind
  gust intensity to gradually diminish through Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

699 
WHUS73 KDTX 132002
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

LEZ444-140800-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  26 knots from the west with gusts up to 41 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At 3 PM, the water level at Toledo was
  about 28 inches above low water datum, or 11 inches below the
  critical mark for save navigation. Water levels are expected to
  continue to fall through 8 PM and will remain below the critical
  mark for safe navigation through the evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-140800-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 43 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Lake Huron from 
  Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Inner 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI and Outer 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw 
  Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-140800-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port 
  Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-140200-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0200Z/
Lake St Clair-
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-140400-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200414T0400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 35 knots from the west with
  gusts up to 49 knots. The largest significant waves will be 12 
  feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

973 
WHUS73 KDTX 140146
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

LEZ444-140800-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0200Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0027.200414T0200Z-200414T0800Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At 830 PM, the water level at Toleda was
  about 45 inches above low water datum, or 6 inches above the
  critical mark for safe navigation. This has resulting in the
  cancellation of the low water advisory. A return to or below the
  critical mark for safe navigation will be possible again in the
  mid to late morning hours as a seiche of the lakes will result
  in the oscillation of the water levels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-140800-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200414T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.GL.W.0014.200414T0200Z-200414T0800Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 41 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-140800-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0027.200414T0200Z-200414T0800Z/
Lake St Clair-
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-140800-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Lake Huron from 
  Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Inner 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI and Outer 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw 
  Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-140800-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200414T0800Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port 
  Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
101 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.AVIATION...

Light southeast-south winds will gradually increase the moisture
content over southeast Michigan, but VFR conditions probably will be
able to carry into the early evening hours. MVFR and a gradual
increase in shower activity through the first half of the night
before an increase in large scale forcing supports an increase in
shower intensity and likely a further deterioration to IFR just
along and out ahead of the cold front early Monday (8-13z). A few
rumbles of thunder possible but not worth an explicit mention in the
TAFs attm. Very strong cold front will then pass through during the
mid-late morning hours, with frequent westerly gusts of 40 to 45
knots expected during the afternoon hours with cloud bases lifting
into the 2500-3500 foot range.

For DTW...Cold front timed cross the airfield by 15z Monday. An
abrupt shift to westerly flow gusting aoa 40 kts will cause
crosswind concerns.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs aob 5kft after 21z.

* High for exceeding crosswind thresholds from 270 degrees by 15z
  Monday.

* Low for thunder in KDTW airspace 09-14z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

DISCUSSION...

Downstream ridge amplification and rapid shifting of location to the
dominant polar jet has led to warm air advection over all of the
Great Lakes overnight. Focused system relative isentropic ascent at
825-725mb or on the 306-312Ke surfaces is occurring at the nose of a
backing low level jet impulse and at the crux of leading low-mid
tropospheric frontogenesis. It is this fgen along the low level jet
impulse that is the driver for the wave of stratiform light rain
across southern portions of Lower Michigan. Consensus of guidance
keeps the rain activity progressive and light in nature, largely
exiting all of the cwa by 10-11Z.

Large scale height rises will give way to bonafide upper level ridge
today with the axis directly through Lower Michigan as the edge to
dominant polar jet axis emerges over Lake Superior and points
northward in Canada. This has support in the forecast soundings here
locally with indications of large scale midlevel subsidence centered
down into the 700-600mb layer. System relative trajectories agree
with synoptic scale subsidence as neutral trajectories exist sub
700mb with strongly anticyclonic flow trajectories in the mid-upper
levels between 700-400mb. Forecast soundings suggests moisture
residing below the active subsidence which supports plenty of cloud,
but confidence has increased sufficiently that conditions today will
be predominately dry. Degree of warm advection supports highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s, no deviations from MOS.

Continued backing to low-midlevel wind trajectories in response to
strong height falls over the Plains to mid Mississippi River Valley
and the increase of nocturnal low level jet velocities will result in
increasing shower activity during the evening hours. The increase in
showers is expected overhead emanating south to north due to
increase in absolute moisture in the 850-500mb layer and likely
augmented by gravity wave propagation. No tangible signal exists for
heavy rainfall with guidance suggesting around 0.50 inch for many
areas perhaps up to .75 across Monroe County/near Lake Erie.

The main concern for this forecast package continues to be the
strong wind potential Monday with the mid latitude cyclone deepening
through the Great Lakes region. The forecast trend continues to
suggest slightly weaker potential to surface windspeeds Monday than
model data was suggesting 24 hours ago. The forecast discussion
issued earlier this afternoon noted this trend, and it was again the
case with the 12.00Z guidance. So what is behind this forecast
trend? From a big picture perspective, some interesting specifics
falling out of the data. First, model data is much more broader with
the radius to surface cyclone center that will be impacting
Southeast Michigan Monday morning. Two reasons for this, one is that
models are showing desert SW PV anomaly and edge wave largely
shunting to the south and east, sliding through the Ohio Valley to
portions of Lake Erie. It is not being wrapped into the cyclone as
had been projected. Secondly, models are showing a very distinct
separation/multiple upper level jetlets within burgeoning full
latitude trough by 18Z Monday. The net result of these separate jet
packets is that best support for surface low center will
overwhelmingly be around Sault St Marie between 15-18Z Monday. This
is in response to a number of things that include coupled upper
level jet support and direct differential cyclonic vorticity
advection. The dueling locations for greatest low pressure support
will put Southeast Michigan in the broader radius of low surface
pressure. This is very important because dynamic support for
subsidence from midlevels down to the surface is now weaker. System
relative isentropic flow trajectories showing some inefficiency to
the downglide with a lack of orthogonality to the isentropes. The
same perspective shows downward vertical motion limited to below
820mb which matches congruently to the mixed layer within the model
soundings. Throw in the fact that Southeast Michigan will be removed
from any true instantaneous negative differential cyclonic vorticity
advection (it occurs north) and dynamic support can be questioned in
a relative sense. Regardless, the mixed layer shows mixing depths
extending into environmental windspeeds of 45 to 50 knots. As a
result, will maintain the High Wind Watch for another model cycle as
potential does remain for wind gusts to 55 mph. However, indications
at this time suggest a high end wind advisory. Most likely timeframe
for strongest winds remains between Noon and 6 PM EDT.

Southeast Michigan will be encompassed within a large area of low
heights and cyclonic flow through the middle to end of the week.
Temperatures will be considerably cool Tuesday through Friday with
daytime temperatures running in the 40s. The potential exists for
some light rain shower activity Tuesday particularly north of I 69.
Difficult to get specific here as large scale support will favor
subsidence, but the boundary layer will remain moist. Thus, daytime
heating may be all it takes to generate some very low QPF.

MARINE...

The main marine concern continues to center from today through early
Tuesday. A strong storm system is forecasted to eject out of the
southern plains today and deepen as it approaches the Great Lakes.
Winds will back from the south to the east today with the approach
of this system, with speeds increasing tonight. The low is
forecasted to undergo considerable strengthening as it lifts
northeast across the Great Lakes on Monday.

The storm system is expected to result in a high end Gale event over
Lake Huron, Lake Erie and Lake St Clair Monday and Monday night. The
potential also exists for Storm Force winds on Lake Huron and a
Storm Watch remains in effect. Confidence continues to increase in
windspeeds of up to 50 knots. Some uncertainty does remain
particularly with exactly where the surface low pressure will track.
The exact low track has a signficant influence on the forecasted
windspeeds and timing of windshifts. Keep informed on latest
forecast information with this storm system.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall is expected tonight through Monday morning.
Average rainfall during this extended period looks to range between
one half and three quarters of one inch. Highest amounts are
expected near Monroe County and Lake Erie. There does not appear to
be a significant threat of flooding with this event.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

     Lakeshore Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MIZ063.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from noon Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ363-421-
     422-441>443-462>464.

     Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for LHZ361-
     362.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
519 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-130930-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
519 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A High Wind Watch is in effect for Monday. Refer to the latest
forecast and weather message for additional information. A Lakeshore
Flood Watch is also in effect for St Clair County. Refer to the
latest Lakeshore Flood Message for more information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-130930-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
519 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Storm and Gale Watches are in effect. Refer to the latest forecast
and Marine Weather Message for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

CB