Gale Warning 3, NWS Detroit, MI

828 
WHUS73 KDTX 110903
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

LEZ444-112115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.200112T0700Z-200112T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200112T0700Z-200112T1600Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 25
  knots from the west with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest
  significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave
  height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, water level
  drops much below recent average and possibly as low as chart
  datum by Sunday morning. 

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday
  with the largest waves expected around 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-112115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200111T1200Z-200112T1600Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the 
  northeast with gusts up to 47 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 16 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  23 feet across the open waters of Lake Huron.

* WHERE...Central Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Saturday
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix of precipitation and freezing
  spray is also likely today and tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-112115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200111T1600Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the 
  northeast with gusts up to 47 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 15 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  22 feet.

* WHERE...Northern Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 1 AM EST Sunday
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix of precipitation and freezing
  spray is also likely today and tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-112115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200111T1600Z-200112T1600Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 27 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Southern Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Saturday
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix of precipitation or just
  freezing rain is also likely today and tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-112115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200112T0700Z-200112T1600Z/
Lake St Clair-
403 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the west with
  gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3
  feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair and Michigan waters of Lake Erie.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday
  with the largest waves expected around 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

619 
WHUS73 KDTX 112052
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

LEZ444-120900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200112T0600Z-200112T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.200112T0700Z-200112T1700Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  22 knots from the west with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 4 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-120900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 34 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 45 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 16 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 23 feet.

* WHERE...Saginaw Bay And Central Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EST 
  Saturday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EST 
  Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix of precipitation and freezing
  spray continues through tonight.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-120900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 31 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 42 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Southern Third Of Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Saturday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix of precipitation and freezing
  spray continues through tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-120900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0003.200112T0600Z-200112T1300Z/
Lake St Clair-
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 5 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-120900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
352 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 34 knots from the 
  northeast with gusts up to 45 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 14 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  20 feet.

* WHERE...Northern Third of Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow continues through tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

450 
WHUS73 KDTX 120851
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

LEZ444-121700-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0006.200112T0851Z-200112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200112T1700Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds
  up to 21 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 33 knots. 
  The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 4 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, 
  abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LCZ460-121500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0006.200112T0851Z-200112T1500Z/
Lake St Clair-
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-121400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 27 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet.

* WHERE...Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-121400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 9 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 13 feet.

* WHERE...Northern third of Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-121400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
351 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 27 knots from the north 
  with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Southern third of Lake Huron.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

303 
WHUS73 KDTX 121233
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
733 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

LHZ421-441>443-122100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0006.200112T1233Z-200112T2100Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
733 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest
  with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be
  3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Harbor 
  Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds and waves are expected during the
  morning. 

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-422-462>464-121345-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T1400Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
733 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Wind and waves continue diminishing as high pressure moves in
today. 

$$

LEZ444-121700-
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200112T1700Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200112T1500Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
733 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds
  up to 20 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 30 knots. The
  largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential
  maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory,
  water level is expected to reach about 2 feet above chart datum. 

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds and waves are expected during the
  morning. 

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LCZ460-121500-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200112T1500Z/
Lake St Clair-
733 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest
  with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be
  2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds and waves are expected during the
  morning. 

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
407 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A winter storm remains on track to lift through lower MI this
weekend. This powerful system will produce a myriad of hazards
across the area tonight through Sunday morning resulting in several
headlines being in effect. All the counties that were in the Winter
Storm Watch have been upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for Macomb and St Clair as
conditions are less favorable for icing but still likely to some
extent. The Flood Watch remains in effect along and south of I-69
and there are Lakeshore Flooding Warnings and Advisories for all
shoreline counties with the exception of Monroe.

The overall setup remains largely unchanged from previous forecasts.
Models have been in pretty remarkable agreement for several days now
with all the main parts of the pattern. The longwave trough axis
will reach the plains this evening as a cold front associated with a
northern stream wave now over Hudson Bay drops into SE lower MI and
stalls northeast to southwest across the area. A strong shortwave
will round the base of the trough and eject rapidly northeast as a
southwesterly low level jet on the order of 70 knots develops. The
main axis of moisture is current draped just south of the state line
but will get forced north this evening as the nose of the strong llj
surges into the region along with the first wave of stronger fgen
ahead of the surface low. Excellent moisture quality with deep layer
southwesterly flow rooted in the Gulf will lead to an extended
period of heavy rainfall ahead of the passage of the surface low
Saturday night. Models continue to advertise storm total QPF around
2-3 inches across all of SE MI from tonight through Sunday morning.

Complicating the matter will be an area of high pressure sliding
through Ontario flipping winds around to the northeast Saturday for
a portion of the area. This shallow wedge of cold air will undercut
the deep and active front resulting in thermal profiles worthy of
freezing rain and/or sleet. The cold air will move south Saturday
morning into the afternoon allowing this wintry mix to overtake
areas that had been raining all of Friday night. Biggest question is
where will the freezing line be at the surface? Most guidance brings
it south to the terrain of the Irish Hills leaving a tight gradient
of ptype across Livingston, Oakland, macomb, and St Clair Counties.
Though the northeast winds gusting to 30-40 mph may be a bit strong
for maximum ice accretion, and rainfall rates are also a bit high
to maximize ice accretion, the amount of rain and duration of time
that freezing rain is likely may result in a half to three quarters
of an inch of ice north of M59. Models put the area of max
accumulation around Flint and along I69.

One notable change in models today is a drift to the southeast with
the track of the surface low Saturday night taking into across
western Lake Erie. This would allow the colder air to work farther
south into the area with the biggest impact being more sleet and
snow occuring across the Tri-Cities than freezing rain cutting into
ice accumulation totals across that area. This could also bring some
light freezing rain into Washtenaw as well.

The dry slot will quickly lift through the area early Sunday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation across the area. A quick switch
to southwesterly/westerly flow and cold air advection rapidly
increasing the mixed boundary layer within a tight pressure gradient
may result in a quick burst of strong winds behind the cold front.
Gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph for a few hours before high pressure
builds and gradient relaxes.

During the upcoming week, the northern stream of the jet will look
to take on a low amplitude, progressive, flow pattern resulting in
weak troughs periodically brushing the region through the front half
of the week. A couple stronger storms may target the area during the
latter half of the week and weekend. More to come on this after we
get through the ice storm.

&&

.MARINE...

An extended period of Gales developing tomorrow and lasting through
Sunday morning as low pressure coming out of the southern
Mississippi River Valley tracks into between the Central and Eastern
Great Lakes early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, strong high pressure
will be parked over northern Ontario, allowing cold air to move over
Lake Huron and strengthen the pressure gradient. Freezing spray and
wintry precipitation will thus spread into northern/central Lake
Huron, with mainly heavy rain across far southern Lake Huron and
points south. Northeast gales peak near storm force around midnight
Saturday night over Lake Huron, especially over Central Sections
into Saginaw Bay. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie will be closer to the
low track, and do not look to get into Gales until late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning behind the passage of the low and as cold
air quickly sweeps southeast. None-the-less, Gale warnings have been
issued for all marine waters for various times. Ridge of high
pressure arriving Sunday afternoon will allow winds to quickly
diminish with light winds persisting into Monday, before moderate
increase in southeast winds occurs Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A winter storm will lift through the Great Lakes tonight through
Sunday morning along a cold front draped across the area. A moisture
rich airmass will aide in the development of heavy rain and weak
instability will allow for some thunderstorms throughout this time.
Widespread rainfall amounts of around 2 to 3.5 inches with locally
higher amounts are possible. This much rain on frozen ground will
produce a great amount of runoff. Widespread flooding of various
degrees and intensity is possible especially in urban areas. Roads,
low lying areas, poor drainage areas, small streams and creeks are
likely to experience problems. A strong easterly wind component will
likely cause lakeshore flooding along Saginaw Bay and Lakes Huron
and St. Clair.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

AVIATION...

Frontal boundary anchored over the region will provide the focus for
a period of active weather through the taf period. Moist and mild
conditions south of this boundary today will maintain extensive
lower stratus with some pockets of rain/drizzle at times. Lowest
ceiling heights will exist from PTK southward, where fluctuations
between IFR and LIFR conditions are likely going forward.
Precipitation will increase in both coverage and intensity tonight
and continue through Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks
across this boundary. Rainfall expected through much of the tonight
period. A cooling near surface environment as the boundary sags
southward and winds turn northeasterly will then lead to an extended
period of freezing rain at MBS and FNT Saturday. Potential for
significant icing at these terminals, aided by gusty NE winds
reaching upwards of 30 knots. PTK will reside more tenuously around
freezing line, likely offering a shorter window for FZRA midday
Saturday. An all rain scenario along the Detroit corridor with
temperatures hovering just above freezing throughout Saturday.
Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions during this time.

For DTW...Lower stratus carrying IFR/LIFR cigs holding firm through
the taf period. Periodic light rain becoming more widespread and
intense tonight. Precipitation will remain as rain through Saturday,
with temperatures holding in the middle 30s. Any icing expected to
remain north of metro.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5 kft or less throughout the forecast.

* Low for ceiling 200 ft or less tonight.

* High for all rain as precipitation type tonight and Saturday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through late Saturday night
     for MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

     Ice Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-068-069.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ048-049-054-055-063.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ063-070.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     MIZ070-076.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for LHZ363-421-
     422-441-462.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for LHZ442-443-
     463-464.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 9 AM EST Sunday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.

&&

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....DRK
AVIATION.....MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
600 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

MIZ047-053-060>062-068-069-075-076-082-083-111100-
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
600 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A winter storm will impact Michigan early Saturday morning through
early Sunday. A band of heavy rain with rainfall totals of up to 3.5
inches will be capable of producing widespread flooding across the
region from late tonight into Saturday night. During this time
frame, there will also be the potential for embedded thunderstorms
which may further enhance the flooding potential. Severe weather is
not expected.

Meanwhile, locations along and north of I-69 are more likely to
experience a transition from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and snow
on Saturday. Winter travel impacts and power outages will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-111100-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
600 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A gale watch is in effect for Saturday and Sunday. See the latest
marine weather message for detail.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late tonight through Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ048-049-054-055-063-111100-
Bay-Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-St. Clair-
600 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A lakeshore flood advisory is in effect for St. Clair County today.
See the latest lakeshore hazard message for detail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A lakeshore flood watch is in effect for Saturday. See the latest
lakeshore hazard message for detail.

A winter storm will impact Michigan early Saturday morning through
early Sunday. A band of heavy rain with rainfall totals of up to 3.5
inches will be capable of producing widespread flooding across the
region from late tonight into Saturday night. During this time
frame, there will also be the potential for embedded thunderstorms
which may further enhance the flooding potential. Severe weather is
not expected.

Meanwhile, locations along and north of I-69 are more likely to
experience a transition from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and snow
on Saturday. Winter travel impacts and power outages will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ070-111100-
Macomb-
600 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A lakeshore flood advisory is in effect today. See the latest
lakeshore hazard message for detail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A winter storm will impact Michigan early Saturday morning through
early Sunday. A band of heavy rain with rainfall totals of up to 3.5
inches will be capable of producing widespread flooding across the
region from late tonight into Saturday night. During this time
frame, there will also be the potential for embedded thunderstorms
which may further enhance the flooding potential. Severe weather is
not expected.

Meanwhile, locations along and north of I-69 are more likely to
experience a transition from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and snow
on Saturday. Winter travel impacts and power outages will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

TF