Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Des Moines, IA

409 
WWUS53 KDMX 050558
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

IAC063-109-147-050615-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200605T0615Z/
Emmet IA-Kossuth IA-Palo Alto IA-
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN EMMET...KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO COUNTIES...

At 1258 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Elmore to Silver Lake, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Algona, Emmetsburg, Swan Lake, Five Island Lake, Ingham Lake, High
Lake, Lost Island Lake, Silver Lake, Rush Lake, Union Slogh,
Armstrong, Graettinger, West Bend, Ruthven, Bancroft, Swea City,
Burt, Whittemore, Titonka and Ringsted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9397 4301 9397 4291 9492 4329 9491
      4350 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 315DEG 26KT 4339 9403 4306 9488 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Donavon

155 
WWUS53 KDMX 050618
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
118 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

IAC063-109-147-050626-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200605T0615Z/
Emmet IA-Kossuth IA-Palo Alto IA-
118 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EMMET...KOSSUTH AND
PALO ALTO COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
A new severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for portions of Palo 
Alto county otherwise, the storms which prompted the warning have 
weakened below severe limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat 
to life or property. Therefore, much of the warning area has been 
allowed to expire. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4350 9397 4301 9397 4291 9492 4329 9491
      4350 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 293DEG 43KT 4331 9377 4298 9462 

$$

Donavon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Summary...

The name of the game today/tonight will be scattered non-severe
storms this afternoon/evening, followed by a line or broken line of
storms streaming in from the northwest overnight. After that, warm
to hot and humid remains through the weekend and to start next week
before cooling back towards normal by the middle of the week.
Potential remains too for parts/remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal
influencing Iowa Tuesday.

Today through Friday Morning...

A couple of concerns exist through this time frame, including
scattered storms continuing across portions of northern Iowa and the
potential for a line of stronger storms overnight moving in form the
Dakotas.

Currently, satellite nicely depicts the cumulus field that began to
blossom around/after 16z this morning. A few scattered storms began
around 17z and continue currently, primarily along Highway 20 where
there is also a weak surface/low level convergence boundary and
concurrent with the approach/passage of a weak shortwave aloft. With
the underwhelming wind profiles, storms have primarily been
relegated to short lives of moderate to heavy rainfall and small
hail potential. An isolated stronger updraft capable of marginally
severe hail will be possible, but should continue to follow the
up/down nature with inability to organize.

Later tonight, storms beginning to fire up in W South Dakota and SW
North Dakota will grow upscale and take a likely SE/ESE turn, riding
along the MUCAPE gradient. Some uncertainty remains in the exact
geographic extent, ranging from a long linear structure to a broken
line of sorts. Model trends today have typically trended toward the
latter, likely due to the relatively dry air situated just NW of the
air in the low-mid levels. That said, with better moisture situated
within central Iowa and forecast to remain, if not slowly increase,
overnight there is concern for growth as it enters the forecast
area. Should that come to fruition, the main concerns will revolve
around strong/damaging winds and hail (especially any storms able to
organize within increasing shear profiles). A non-zero tornado
threat will remain based on shear vector orientation (though a small-
ish margin with 0-3km around 30-40 kts), and will be for QLCS
development as opposed to any supercells (which would be more
elevated in nature). Have tended to lean towards the HRRR suite
throughout the day given its relatively well handling of the current
situation. With some lingering uncertainty in spatial extent and
evolution, the SPC Slight Risk across much of the area is more than
reasonable.

Friday Afternoon through Thursday...

Warm and at times humid conditions will remain through the weekend
and to start the week. A reprieve from the humidity will be seen
Friday and Saturday as drier air settles in. The warmth though will
predominantly continue, especially Sunday and Monday as upper
level/thermal ridging slides east. Monday continues to look like
another day in the low 90s with 850mb temps in the low 20s deg C.
The ridging will quickly be ushered away as the western trough
begins to kick out Tuesday. As it does so, the next good opportunity
for widespread rainfall will accompany it Tuesday, including the
continued opportunity for at least some remnants of Tropical Storm
Cristobal (mainly moisture) as well. The rest of the week then looks
to return to near-normal conditions in mid 70s to low 80s and
comfortable dew points.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Scattered thunderstorms have managed to sustain themselves along and
north of the highway 20 corridor, impacting KFOD, and KALO mainly.
Storms in this area will continue and any that pass over TAF sites
will be capable of large hail and strong/damaging wind.  Overnight,
more widespread thundstorms will push across the state with a
widespread threat for large hail and damaging wind.  VFR conditions
are mainly expected but in storms, MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible,
along with strong wind.  Storms pass east in the morning with VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...FAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
433 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-050845-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
433 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across northern Iowa into
the evening, with more storms possible into the overnight hours
area wide. Some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
A brief tornado cannot be ruled out overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms may linger across central and
southern Iowa into Friday morning, with other non-severe storms
possible later in the day south.

Other thunderstorm chances are back in the forecast around
Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe weather and heavy rain potential
for these storms will be better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight and into early Friday morning.

Small

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
816 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             1 SSW DUNCOMBE          42.45N 94.00W
06/04/2020  M1.75 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
906 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

IAZ036>038-048-049-050300-
Hamilton IA-Story IA-Grundy IA-Hardin IA-Marshall IA-
906 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...Area of Storms May Produce Winds Over 40 mph and Small Hail...

At 905 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Iowa Falls to 8 miles
northwest of Gilbert. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Rainfall amounts up to one inch will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Nevada, Eldora, Story City, Roland, Jewell Junction, Hubbard,
Zearing, Radcliffe, Ellsworth, Union, McCallsburg, Steamboat Rock,
New Providence, Randall, Whitten, Buckeye, Garden City, Owasa, Pine
Lake State Park and Eldora Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 4199 9343 4219 9370 4221 9370 4221 9372
      4223 9375 4248 9338 4237 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 290DEG 21KT 4242 9338 4216 9379

Kotenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1001 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

IAZ037-048-049-050345-
Story IA-Hardin IA-Marshall IA-
1001 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...Strong storms may produce winds over 40 mph and small hail...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Roland, or 16 miles north of Nevada, moving east
at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hubbard, Zearing, Radcliffe, McCallsburg, Garden City and Drake
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 9318 4213 9335 4227 9347 4233 9346
      4235 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 268DEG 15KT 4225 9340

Kotenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1052 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE PIONEER           42.69N 94.37W
06/04/2020                   HUMBOLDT           IA   PUBLIC

            ROOF BLOWN OFF CATTLE SHED. REPORT VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW GRUVER            43.41N 94.75W
06/05/2020  M60 MPH          EMMET              IA   ASOS

            KEST ESTHERVILLE ASOS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1226 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW GRUVER            43.41N 94.75W
06/05/2020  M64 MPH          EMMET              IA   ASOS

            KEST ESTHERVILLE ASOS.

&&