Tornado Warning 15, NWS Duluth, MN

264 
WWUS53 KDLH 150000
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC001-150015-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200815T0015Z/
Aitkin MN-
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN COUNTY...
    
At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles northeast of McGrath, or 25 miles north of
Hinckley, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Arthyde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4631 9312 4639 9321 4645 9315 4645 9312
      4642 9306 4633 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 226DEG 34KT 4637 9310 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Huyck

151 
WWUS53 KDLH 150007
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC001-150017-
/O.EXP.KDLH.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200815T0015Z/
Aitkin MN-
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
715 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4631 9312 4639 9321 4645 9315 4645 9312
      4642 9306 4633 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 222DEG 17KT 4639 9307 

$$

Huyck

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as
a cold front sweeps across the CWA. The main uncertainty with the
line of storms tonight has been the potential for severe weather.
Previous model guidance has suggested MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg,
but more recent runs have shown discrepancies within the CAMs.
Trends have been suggesting only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE with
current visible imagery supporting this since there was minimal
clearing. The wind environment has been much more favorable, with
40- 50 knots of effective bulk shear. In addition, 0-1 km SRH
values have been well over 200 m2/s2. However, given the poor
instability, the strength of convection has so far remained below
severe criteria. Despite the weak instability, these storms still
may turn severe this evening given the strong wind environment.

One possible impact that may result from these storms will be the
potential for flash flooding in the Brainerd Lakes area. Earlier
rounds of convection this morning produced up to 1.5 inches of
rainfall around Cass and Crow Wing Counties. Additional rainfall
tonight is expected to be between 2-4 inches, especially if these
storms begin to backbuild as the LLJ strengthens. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for Cass County and Crow Wing County to
account for the potential in flooding this evening.

Following the passage of the cold front tonight, conditions will dry
out by Saturday morning along with cooler temperatures. A slight
chance for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms is possible
Saturday night into Sunday as weak low pressure passes to the north
over Ontario.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A cooler period is expected to start on Sunday into next week along
with mostly dry conditions as a longwave trough sets up over the
eastern half of the CONUS. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as several
shortwaves move across the area. The best chance for widespread
rainfall comes Thursday night into Friday, as a longwave trough
moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Winds this afternoon are expected to remain gusty ahead of an
approaching cold front. VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers
and thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may be severe, with the greatest risk being for BRD. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are likely as the showers and
thunderstorms move through. Conditions are expected to improve to
VFR tomorrow morning as drier air moves in, reducing cloud cover.
The exception will be HYR, where IFR ceilings are likely to
persist tomorrow morning, as low stratus from the cold front
linger.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The main concern this evening will be the chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the area. Severe storms may
be possible, with strong and gusty winds, large hail, and heavy rain
causing reduced visibilities being the primary hazards. Following
the passage of the cold front overnight, winds will become gusty
on Saturday morning along the South Shore with west winds of 15-20
knots and gusts up to 25 knots. A small craft advisory may be
needed, primarily around the Bayfield Peninsula. Waves tomorrow
will be 2-4 feet, calming down to 2 feet or less by the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  77  56  77 / 100  10  30   0
INL  51  77  51  75 /  90  30  30   0
BRD  51  77  57  78 /  30   0  10   0
HYR  53  77  55  78 /  80   0  20   0
ASX  56  79  57  80 /  60  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ025-033-034.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Unruh/GSF
LONG TERM...Unruh/GSF
AVIATION...Unruh/GSF
MARINE...Unruh/GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-152215-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening.
Strong winds and large hail are the primary threats. Storms may
also contain isolated tornadoes, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall which may lead to areas of flash flooding. The severe
weather threat will diminish around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in
northeastern Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night. Severe
weather is not expected.

Thunderstorm chances will return Tuesday through Friday. Severe
weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-152215-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this evening. Some may be strong to
severe with wind gusts greater than 30 knots, large hail, and
frequent lightning possible. In addition, breezy southwesterly
winds will develop this evening, which may lead to wave heights up
to 5 ft along the Bayfield Peninsula. A Small Craft Advisory may
be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and again
Tuesday through Thursday next week. Severe weather is not
expected.

JDS

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLOOD            7 S DAYS HIGH LANDING   47.16N 93.78W
08/14/2020                   CASS               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CASS COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE CALLED TO REPORT
            FLOODING ACROSS THE ROAD ON STATE RD 6 NEAR
            WILLOW LAKE.

&&

WFU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CROSBY                  46.49N 93.96W
08/14/2020                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

WFU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             1 NW GRAND RAPIDS       47.24N 93.53W
08/14/2020  M0.25 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WFU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNW HILL CITY        47.11N 93.70W
08/14/2020  M3.18 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

WFU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     FLOOD            1 N LA PRAIRIE          47.24N 93.49W
08/14/2020                   ITASCA             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE PATROL REPORTS THAT 2 FEET OF WATER
            WAS COVERING THE ROAD ON 169 NEAR GLENWOOD
            DRIVE. ROAD WILL BE SHUT DOWN.

&&

WFU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE BOVEY             47.25N 93.38W
08/14/2020                   ITASCA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN AT THE TROUT
            LAKE CAMPGROUND NEAR GRAND RAPIDS.

&&

JDS