Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
409 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening.
Isolated severe storms are possible and can produce high winds and
hail up to an inch in diameter. Chances for severe weather should
diminish as we head into tonight. According to the 12Z GFS run,
which has been verifying with most current environment conditions,
our region should lose high moisture and instability as the night
progresses.

Monday the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
as a small shortwave moves through the Northland. There is also a
possibility of severe weather in the arrowhead of Minnesota and NW
Wisconsin, where the highest instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and
upper level forcing is predicted to be. These should continue and
eventually diminish into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Tuesday morning the upper level flow becomes primarily zonal.
Depending on any variation in the flow, there could be more
chances of showers and thunderstorms in central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Otherwise Tuesday should be dry across the
CWA. Scattered severe storms are possible in far northwestern and
north central Minnesota, and can produce high winds and hail up to
an inch in diameter.

Wednesday, a surface low pressure system should affect the
Northland with two rounds of precipitation throughout the day from
its respective warm and cold fronts. No severe weather is expected
at this time.

Thursday chances for some scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue as the cold front moves to the northeast out of the area.
This should lead to a dry Thursday night.

Friday afternoon/evening has yet another chance for showers and
thunderstorms for northwest Wisconsin. According to the global model
suite, there is consensus that precipitation should occur, but the
conditions higher up in the atmosphere that is the source of this
precipitation differ between the models. The global model suite show
more chances for precipitation on Saturday, but the models are in
disagreement on where and when. This will have to be monitored as
the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next
24 hours. Isolated severe storms are possible and could produce
small hail and high winds. These storms could cause low
visibilities and/or MVFR conditions at times tonight and into
tomorrow. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain as VFR today
and continue tomorrow if no storms are in the vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next
48 hours. Isolated severe storms are possible and may produce
gusty winds and small hail. Winds over the next 24 hours should be
relatively light, with highest winds near the head of the lake at
around 15 kts. Wind direction today and tonight should be
primarily out of the northeast, shifting to the southwest Monday.
Waves are expected to be around 1 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  84  61  83 /  40  70  40  20
INL  64  83  57  83 /  50  40  10  10
BRD  67  84  61  83 /  40  60  30  30
HYR  66  88  62  86 /  40  60  50  30
ASX  64  89  63  86 /  40  50  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Huyck/Kossen
LONG TERM...Huyck/Kossen
AVIATION...Wolfe/Kossen
MARINE...Wolfe/Kossen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-062045-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across northeast Minnesota
into this evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with large
hail and gusty winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are periodic chances of thunderstorms Monday through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

WIZ001>004-006>009-062045-
Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northwest Wisconsin away from Lake Superior this afternoon into
the evening. Storms are not expected to be severe, but a few
strong storms producing small hail and gusty winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are periodic chances of thunderstorms Monday through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or
tonight. Rainfall amounts from spotters and the public are
encouraged.

LSZ121-140>148-062045-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Storms are not expected to be severe, but a few strong storms
producing small hail and gusty winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a potential for thunderstorms across western Lake
Superior Monday and then again on Wednesday. Storms could be
strong with gusty winds and small hail.

LE

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
429 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             9 NNE ISLAND LAKE       47.13N 92.11W
07/05/2020  E0.25 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT 8479 VERMILLION TRAIL, DULUTH,
            MN.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             4 SE ISLAND LAKE        46.98N 92.12W
07/05/2020  E1.50 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   PUBLIC

            PEA TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

KLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       9 NNE ISLAND LAKE       47.13N 92.11W
07/05/2020  E0.50 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT 8479 VERMILLION TRAIL, DULUTH,
            MN.

&&

KMK