Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
326 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

The main story this morning is the showers and thunderstorms
moving across the Northland from west to east. These are
associated with mid-level warm air advection and upper-level
short waves providing for some elevated instability. Generally,
storms have been pretty tame, producing some heavy rain and
thunder/lightning. However, there have been a few isolated strong
storms to the southwest that may be partially supported by lift
from the left entrance region of a ~300-mb jet max. As they
progress east this morning, there is potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm to affect central Minnesota, mainly
the Brainerd Lakes region. Due to the elevated nature of these
storms, the primary threat will be for some isolated large hail in
any larger storms that develop this morning.

Later this afternoon, skies will clear out from west to east as a
weak cold front brings in drier air. Despite the front,
temperatures will likely warm up quite nicely this afternoon with
the warm air mass still in place and skies becoming at least
partly sunny. 50s are expected for most of the region with some
60s in east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

Tonight, surface high pressure moves in from the west, keeping
skies mostly clear to start out the night. However, an upper level
trough coupled with a secondary cold front will swing through
early Wednesday morning. This will bring increasing clouds and
perhaps some isolated showers of light rain or snow.

Winds will become a bit breezy on Wednesday due to a tight post-
frontal pressure gradient with northwesterly flow. There could
also be some light wraparound showers in the afternoon,
especially across the International Border and Arrowhead closer to
a surface low in Canada. Highs will reach the 40s for most areas
Wednesday with perhaps some low 50s in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

The period from Wednesday night into Friday night will feature a mix
of dry periods with generally low chances for precipitation. Highs
will start out a few degrees below normal then warm to normal for
Friday and Saturday before cooling again Sunday/Monday.

Cooler air will combine with cyclonic flow and a couple of
shortwaves to produce chances for light rain and snow, mainly snow
overnight and rain or a light mix during the day, Wednesday night
into Thursday over portions of the Northland. Little snow
accumulation is expected. Thursday will be breezy with steep
low level lapse rates helping to produce gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

High pressure will build in Thursday night into Friday bringing a
dry period to the region. The high will move off Friday night and
although we currently bring POPs back into the forecast the
ECMWF/GFS are trending dryer into Friday night. A stronger shortwave
will ride along or just north of the International Border on
Saturday but a trough and cold front will still move through the
region bringing a chance for light snow or rain. Any precipitation
amounts should be light into Saturday. Cooler air will result behind
the cold front and a deeper upper trough will arrive Saturday night
into Sunday. There are some model differences during this time with
both the timing of the upper trough and how they handle a southern
wave and area of low pressure. The ECMWF has a large area of low
pressure centered well south of the area Sunday but its impacts
reach well north. For now we do have a low chance for snow and rain
Sunday but if the ECMWF solution ends up verifying, chances will
have to be increased. Highs Sunday into Monday will be from the mid
thirties to lower forties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A weak low pressure system is pushing out of the Northern Plains and
into the Northland with it's associated warm front lifting northward
overnight. MVFR ceilings have begun to filter into the region ahead
of the approaching system. Light rainfall is expected to begin in
the next couple hours beginning west and spreading east through
the night. There is potential for thunderstorms, especially from
central to northern Minnesota over the next few hours. Ceilings
will continue to drop as we go into the morning hours with IFR
expected. LIFR criteria may also be met at many locations due to
very low ceilings and visibility restrictions from the potential
of fog developing in the morning. Look for VFR conditions to
return to the region Tuesday evening as the system propagates to
the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

An area of low pressure and frontal boundary will move through the
region with high pressure building in briefly tonight. Winds will
start out easterly this morning and be from 10 to around 15 knots
from the Twin Ports and up along the North Shore. Thunderstorms will
also continue to move across the lake through late morning and could
produce locally higher winds and waves. The gradient will weaken
through the day and winds will decrease and become variable for a
time before they become westerly later this afternoon. The westerly
winds will continue tonight and be less than 10 knots for most
areas. Westerly winds will then increase through the day Wednesday
and continue to be strong into Thursday as they veer to northwest.
Gusts of 20 to 30 knots can be expected with the strongest winds
occurring late Wednesday night into Thursday. Conditions will likely
become hazardous for small craft from Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday with the highest waves along the South Shore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  33  46  27 /  70  30  30  10
INL  51  28  44  23 /  50  30  30  20
BRD  59  35  48  27 /  20  20  20   0
HYR  59  35  52  28 /  70  10  40   0
ASX  54  34  49  29 /  70  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde/Britt
MARINE...Melde

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
254 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

MNZ033-034-070845-
Crow Wing-South Cass-
254 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND WESTERN
CROW WING COUNTIES...

At 250 AM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were over eastern
Ottertail Lake, or 22 miles east of Fergus Falls, moving east at 35
mph. Other storms were located about 15 miles southwest of Staples.

These storms, if they hold together, will produce heavy downpours,
hail, and occasional cloud to ground lightning. The hail could be
from pea to as large as quarters.

Locations impacted include...
Brainerd, Baxter, Breezy Point, Pequot Lakes, Crosslake, Nisswa, Pine
River, Pillager, Poplar, Fort Ripley, Leader, Gull Lake, Merrifield,
Saint Mathias, Sylvan, Lake Shore, East Gull Lake, St. Mathias,
Jenkins, and Legionville.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4672 9478 4674 9416 4615 9417 4616 9437
      4623 9440 4627 9434 4630 9436 4630 9439
      4633 9442 4630 9455 4636 9467 4635 9472
      4638 9474 4639 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 272DEG 32KT 4640 9563

Melde