Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Thunderstorms are expected to once again develop across portions
of eastern Colorado this afternoon and trek southeast into western
portions of our forecast area this evening into the early
overnight hours. The strongest of storms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds, as well as heavy rain
and frequent lightning. Otherwise, expect an increase in
cloudiness and light winds from the south to southeast. Dry
conditions are expected tomorrow with mostly clear skies. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the 60s with highs
tomorrow in the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Upper level flow will become more northerly throughout the week
as a large upper level ridge spins over the western United States.
This in combination of drier conditions towards the surface will
result in little to no rain chances for western Kansas. However, a
stray thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out during peak
heating. Temperatures through the long term look to reach into the
upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 442 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Scattered strong to
severe convection across eastern Colorado and NW Kansas as of
2140z is moving slowly south in the direction of SW Kansas. Have
very low confidence regarding how much, if any, of this activity
will survive and move toward the terminals tonight. With models in
disarray, opted to keep convection out of all TAFs. Variable
amounts of cirrus anvil debris are expected. Light SE winds to
begin the TAF period this evening, will trend light and variable,
and then NWly toward morning, as a weak cold front slides through
the airports. Behind the cold front daylight Monday, a light NEly
wind will prevail with no convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  88  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  63  86  62  89 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  61  89  63  93 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  63  91  63  92 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  66  89  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
P28  68  90  64  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
434 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170945-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
434 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 /334 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into early
tonight, especially across far western Kansas. These storms could
be severe with hail to half dollar size and winds to 60 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
921 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ061-062-170300-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
921 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/...

At 921 PM CDT/821 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Coolidge, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse and Coolidge.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3814 10204 3806 10157 3774 10151 3774 10203
      3789 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 320DEG 32KT 3802 10190

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
922 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E KENDALL             37.93N 101.52W
08/16/2020  M56 MPH          KEARNY             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW5288 KENDALL.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ063-076>078-170315-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-Ford KS-
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN MEADE...GRAY AND
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Pierceville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Montezuma, Pierceville, Copeland, Ingalls, Charleston,
Howell, Plymell and Tice.

LAT...LON 3775 10105 3817 10055 3793 10022 3791 10022
      3791 10020 3782 10007 3747 10062 3747 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 320DEG 32KT 3799 10068

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
933 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ061>063-074>076-085>087-170330-
Seward KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Kearny KS-
Hamilton KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
933 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHERN KEARNY...SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...GRANT...WESTERN
MEADE...EASTERN STANTON...NORTHERN STEVENS AND HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 PM CDT/930 PM MDT/...

At 933 PM CDT/833 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Ulysses, moving southeast at 35
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Sublette, Satanta, Moscow, Tice, Ryus, Cave and Hickok.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3723 10155 3787 10155 3779 10102 3737 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 320DEG 32KT 3767 10129

TATRO

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