Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

A cold front is currently located across northeast Colorado and into
Nebraska. This front will eventually continue to sink southward through
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary this afternoon and into the evening. The best chance
at precipitation during this time frame will be along and north of
Highway 96. Some of the storms may be strong to marginally severe,
but the main threat will be heavy rainfall. Speaking of heavy rainfall,
the 12Z KDDC RAOB PWAT this morning was 1.55”. This is already above
the 90th percentile. This PWAT is expected to increase to 2” by tomorrow
morning. This is off the charts for our PWAT climo. The bottom line
is that the atmosphere is extremely moist and is primed for heavy rainfall.
In addition to the high PWAT, lift along the front will aid in extremely
efficient rainfall production in the storms. A widespread area of 1
to 2 inches still looks on track for much of the forecast area. The
currently hydro headline still looks on track. Isolated areas of 3+”
is also possible through tomorrow. The front will continue to sink
southward tomorrow as well as the area of precipitation. Highs tomorrow
will be obviously cooler will all the precipitation and lingering
cloud cover. Upper 70s to lower 80s looks on track.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

The front will lift northward on Tuesday and stall out across the state.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again during the day
along the boundary and in the upslope flow pattern north of the front.
Highs around 80F is forecast on Tuesday with all the lingering precip
and cloud cover still around. On Wednesday, the boundary moves off
to the east along with much of the storm chances associated with it.
This boundary is expected to sink southward again on Thursday. Once
again, lift along the boundary and upslope flow north of the front
will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
day. Highs in the 80s are still forecast with all the cloud cover and
scattered storms around. Isolated storms will be possible again on
Friday as the same weather pattern is expected to prevail. High pressure
along with associated drier air may work in to the FA by next weekend
with moderating temperatures and a drier trending forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

VFR is expected for this afternoon and much of the evening. Eventually,
showers and thunderstorms will develop later tonight. Heavy rainfall
is the main concern for the thunderstorms. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will prevail across the terminals tonight and into the morning hours.
Here, IFR cigs and vis is expected with the heavy rainfall producing
storms and low clouds. For winds, a fropa is expected tomorrow morning
with 5-15 kt southwesterly winds becoming northeasterly in the wake
of the front through the TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  67  80  61 /  50  80  80  30
GCK  92  65  78  60 /  60  80  80  30
EHA  93  65  80  62 /  60  80  80  40
LBL  94  66  82  61 /  40  60  80  40
HYS  94  66  79  60 /  60  80  60  10
P28  95  70  84  65 /  10  70  80  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
morning for KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-078-079.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
250 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 /150 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible late
this afternoon through this evening with wind gusts up to 60 mph
the main threat. Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall are
likely with the strongest storms, increasing the potential for
localized flooding.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms producing prolonged periods of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southwest and south central Kansas
early Monday, increasing the potential for localized flooding.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Significant risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening, generally along and north of highway 50.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ043-044-262100-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
312 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT AND NORTHERN LANE COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Modoc, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Dighton, Grigston, Healy, Scott State Lake, Modoc,
Shallow Water, Manning, Pendennis, Amy and Shields.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10025 3848 10027 3827 10112 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 235DEG 21KT 3852 10102

RBURG