Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

All of the convective allowing models drive a line of broken
convection into west central Kansas by around 23-00 UTC this evening.
The initial  few hours may bring severe wind gusts well in excess of
60 mph, and hail locally  in excess of 2 inches. There is no
impressive moisture transport signal, so the mcs will likely weaken
as it moves east across the area tonight with lightning and heavy
rain as main threats the farther east it gets (say past 283). The
best area for severe wind threat based on the HiRES and HRRR
output looks to be Garden City and points west. The overnight
cloud cover forecast will be a challenge as not all of the models
are in agreement on extent of low cloud cover. GFSLamp does show
potential for a period of low stratus as low as 100ft anywhere in
the outflow area with increasing potential toward sunrise Tuesday.

For Tuesday, the convection appears to develop over the Palmer
Divide region and feed into the instability axis characterized by
60s+ dew points funneling from west central Kansas into northeast
CO in the evening. The GFS models another widespread MCS across
our area. By contrast the convective allowing models
NMM/NAM4km/HRRR tend to develop discreet convection near a dryline
farther southeast closer to late afternoon, so a few leading
severe storms may impact the far southwest counties even earlier.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

By Wednesday evening, the ECMWF and GFS both model another
convective round as moisture/dew point pooling looks maximized east
to west across Kansas into southeast Colorado with weak upslope
surface flow. There should be multiple locations for convection to
develop on outflow boundaries by then as well.  By Friday it looks
like the pattern shifts enough to have weak troughing near the
western state line and swrly winds and drier air working into sw
Kansas. That should end the series of MCS activity and lead to much
hotter temperatures again heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Another round of storms will move through the TAF sites tonight
bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise expect
ceilings to remain at VFR. Winds will generally be light and from
the southeast with the exception of in and around the
aforementioned storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  93  65  88 /  50  10  40  10
GCK  66  91  63  86 /  60  10  40  10
EHA  69  95  65  89 /  50  10  40  20
LBL  67  97  65  91 /  50   0  40  10
HYS  69  87  63  84 /  30  10  40  10
P28  72  97  70  92 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
146 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140700-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
146 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 /1246 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorm chances ramp up once again pushing out of terrain
induced eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. Much of the viewing
area looks to be in the severe threat with the greatest hazards
being with damaging winds and larger hail. Frequent lightning
along with possible flooding will be a risk as well with slow
moving storms and forming into a complex after sunset Monday and
into the overnight hours through early Tuesday morning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Another round of thunderstorms Tuesday evening and into the
overnight hours are possible once again with a marginally severe
threat heading into early Wednesday morning. High uncertainty in
regards to severe weather but frequent lightning and possible
flooding once again behind a cold front that will push through
earlier in the day during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect a
dry and warming pattern towards the end of the work week and into
the weekend with excessive heat being the only risk to deal with
as afternoon highs push back into the 90s Thursday and breaking
100 degrees once Friday and over the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 6 pm first for counties
along the Colorado state line as well as into west central Kansas
along the Hwy 83 corridor. These will spread east and
southeastward through the overnight hours.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
750 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

KSZ075-084-085-140130-
Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
750 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORTON...SOUTH CENTRAL
GRANT AND WESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richfield, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hugoton, Rolla, Richfield, Wilburton and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3705 10183 3727 10185 3744 10136 3709 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 261DEG 19KT 3718 10174

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
839 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

KSZ084-085-140215-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
839 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rolla, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hugoton, Rolla and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 10166 3715 10166 3722 10123 3700 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 269DEG 18KT 3703 10158

TURNER