Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...Updated Hydro...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Severe and potential heavy rain threat for this evening still
looks likely. The frontal boundary as of this discussion is
located roughly from Elkhart to Scott City to Hill City...with
plenty of sunshine ahead of the front which is destabilizing the
atmosphere ahead of the front. The upper level trough is slowly
moving through western Colorado with subsequent 700 mb shortwaves
entering into both northern New Mexico and far southwest Kansas.
These will be the two areas where thunderstorm activity is
expected to break out this afternoon. CAM models have stayed in
pretty good agreement that storms along the cold front in Kansas
should start going up around 4-5 pm initially as supercells for a
few hours and then evolving into a line along the front. The
supercells will have the capability of large hail (2 inches or
greater) and a isolated tornado or landspout threat especially
around the front and then eventually turn into a flash flooding
threat as the storms train along the same areas. Model forecast
rainfall amounts are in the order of 1-2 inches for areas along
and east of highway 283 in the flash flood watch for tonight. The
second round of storms will develop in southeast Colorado (around
Pueblo to Trinidad) and move eastward through the afternoon
eventually crossing into Kansas sometime around or shortly after 7
pm. Given the fact they should ride along the frontal boundary
and be in line form as well these storms should have mainly a wind
threat.

For Monday the upper level trough doesn't move all the much
eastward through Colorado...but what movement it does make will
provide enough momentum for much colder air to come across western
Kansas through the day. 850 mb temps are forecast to be in the
6-10 (C) range. Rain will continue through much of the morning
before starting to diminish slowly from west to east through the
afternoon. With north winds, cloud cover, unseasonably cooler air,
and rain through much of the morning...afternoon highs will
struggle to get into the low 60s for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The slow moving upper trough from Colorado will move southeast
into Texas for Tuesday and Wednesday and turn into a closed upper
low. With a blocking high over the Atlantic ocean the closed low
will be very slow moving and influence the weather in Kansas
through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will continue to
stay cool for Tuesday and Wednesday as north winds aloft will
continue to advect cooler air in from the northern plains. Most of
the precipitation with the low given the present track should stay
off to the south in Oklahoma and to the east towards southeast
Kansas. Towards Friday another strong push of colder air will move
in clipping our eastern zones as the brunt of the air mass should
go through the Great Lakes. By the weekend we may begin to see
warmer air start to move out of the Rockies back into the central
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Two areas of thunderstorm and rain activity will develop late this
afternoon and tonight throughout western Kansas. The first area of
storms will develop along a cold front roughly after 21Z and will
create VCTS for HYS and DDC with better chances of rain and storms
around the airports from 00Z-03Z. Cloud ceilings will fall to MVFR
conditions as the storms and clouds develop. The next round of
storms will move out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas after
00Z and provide VCTS and rain for LBL and GCK around 03Z and then
HYS and DDC after 06Z. Cloud ceilings will continue to fall to
around IFR status after 06Z and will stay in IFR-MVFR range
through 18Z Monday. Winds will pick up behind the cold front after
09Z with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts over 30 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

With the combination of a slow moving upper level storm system in
Colorado, and a slow moving cold front in southwest and north
central Kansas, the potential for flash flooding tonight and early
Monday morning for areas mainly east of highway 283 continues to
exist. Storms should line up along the front after 4 pm and evolve
into a line after 7 pm. Some of the rain rates in the stronger
storms could approach 1 inch per hour and the storms training over
the same areas will be possible as well. The highest PW and
moisture transport rates continue to be through south central
Kansas so areas between Dodge City and Wichita will have the
greatest opportunity for the potential for flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  54  61  49 /  40  80  60  20
GCK  82  51  62  46 /  30  80  50  20
EHA  82  50  62  47 /  20  70  50  10
LBL  85  53  62  47 /  20  70  50  10
HYS  84  54  62  50 /  40  80  70  20
P28  88  61  67  55 /  20  80  90  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
HYDROLOGY...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
359 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 /259 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and early tonight. The main hazard from these storms will be 2
inch hail and strong damaging winds up to 70 mph.

Several rounds of heavy rainfall will also be possible from some
of these storms and as a result a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for locations along and east of a Hays to Larned to
Greensburg to Coldwater line. Please refer to the latest Flash
Flood Product (FFADDC) for more details.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------

* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms almost
each day from Monday through Thursday. The probability of severe
weather next week currently appears low but additional rainfall in
some areas of south central Kansas may result in some water
issues, especially in poor drainage and low lying areas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  No hazards.

* Saturday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm across southwest,
north central and south central Kansas. Rainfall reports are also
encouraged.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ030-242245-
Trego KS-
512 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ogallah, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney and Ogallah.

LAT...LON 3896 9965 3896 9988 3913 9991 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 175DEG 17KT 3899 9978

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ078-242300-
Ford KS-
521 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Fowler, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City and Howell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 10014 3748 10019 3751 10022 3780 10020
      3766 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 219DEG 24KT 3752 10017

UMSCHEID