Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Early morning convection as of this discussion so far has been
suppressed with stable air coming from northeast winds and the CAP
holding in place. We will continue to monitor if anything can
break through the CAP over the next few hours. The 700-850 mb
warm front continues to lift north and is forecast to stall out
roughly from Elkhart to Great Bend by this afternoon. A weak
shortwave will move into western Kansas by late this afternoon and
may initiate some showers and thunderstorms along the warm front.
Temperatures today will be tricky as clouds look to hold in place
along and north of the warm front along with cooler 850 mb
temperatures. Highs in the low 70s should be a good bet with the
clouds in place and mid to upper 70s where some sunshine can peak
out.

Tonight a more stout shortwave and MCS is forecast to develop in
eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas through the
overnight. Most of the CAM models are latching onto this idea
with the exception of the NAM 3km keeping a stronger CAP in place.
Severe threat looks low at this time as the storms move out of
eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Rain chances will lessen as
you move further east into the state as the overnight MCS moves
into more stable air. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s
to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

The pattern of nightly MCS activity affecting portions of western
and southern Kansas will come to an end Saturday Night as we see a
shift in the large scale pattern toward more stable high pressure in
the lower troposphere. A large upper level ridge will also be
expanding across the Southern/Central Rockies and adjacent Western
Plains. This will act to shut down precipitation from Sunday through
much of next week. That being said, we will be watching the next big
Pacific trough moving in from the West, which will help flatten the
downstream upper ridge across the Central Plains. Abundant Gulf of
Mexico moisture will push back north into western and central Kansas
with a leeside trough deepening and pushing slowly east toward the
Kansas-Colorado border by Wednesday.  An isolated dryline storm or
two will be possible Wednesday evening in this environment. Beyond
Wednesday, the large scale pattern looks to further improve with a
general southwest or west southwest flow pattern aloft, supporting
continued overall low pressure in the lee of the Rockies, keeping a
dryline in place for multiple days. This pattern favors increased
chances for severe weather across western and central Kansas,
certainly right in line with climatology for the latter third of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

For the start of the time period we are monitoring a warm front
lifting into southwest Kansas. Cloud ceilings have been falling
behind the warm front and we could begin to see cloud ceilings
fall around LBL, GCK, and DDC towards 09-11Z. Thunderstorm chances
so far have been held back by the CAP...however if we do see
storms develop the most likely airport to be affected will be HYS
around 09-11Z.

Through the day on Friday clouds will hang around much of the day
with ceilings rising between 15-18Z to VFR and then falling again
to MVFR or IFR with the possibility of rain and storms developing
between 19-22Z. More storms in eastern Colorado will move into
western Kansas towards the end of the time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  71  58  75 /  30  40  80  20
GCK  54  71  55  75 /  30  30  80  10
EHA  55  74  56  78 /  10  20  50  10
LBL  56  74  57  78 /  10  20  80  10
HYS  54  74  59  73 /  40  30  80  10
P28  61  77  62  76 /  40  50  80  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
248 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
248 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020 /148 AM MDT Thu May 14 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A marginal risk for severe storms for the overnight hours from
Thursday night into Friday morning. Storms will develop mainly
along and north of the highway 96 corridor with the possibility
of hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fog: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
159 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ078>080-150730-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
159 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA
AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ft. Dodge, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Spearville, Ford, Offerle, Bellefont, Wright, Windhorst
and Ft. Dodge.

LAT...LON 3753 9975 3764 10011 3791 9996 3791 9949
      3778 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 215DEG 11KT 3771 9989

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ062-063-075>077-150730-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
203 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...SOUTHERN
FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN
HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Plymell, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Holcomb, Pierceville, Charleston and Plymell.

LAT...LON 3758 10091 3774 10124 3802 10109 3803 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 215DEG 11KT 3776 10103

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ080-081-089-090-150745-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
210 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN
BARBER...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL
245 AM CDT...

At 210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Sun City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Sun City, Croft and Belvidere.

LAT...LON 3717 9898 3727 9917 3761 9916 3734 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 214DEG 19KT 3729 9903

JJOHNSON