Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
626 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

Scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses
north central and south central Kansas late this afternoon and
early tonight. At this time based on the latest CAMS it appears
that the most favorable area for this convection along this
frontal boundary will be east of a Hays to Dodge City to Meade
line. Also given the forecast 00z Saturday CAPE and 0-6km shear
east and south of Dodge City there will also be a chance that a
few of these storms will be capable of producing quarter size hail
or a little larger along with wind gusts up to 60 mph. Timing for
this severe weather will mainly from 00z to 03z Friday but
thunderstorm development along the cold front can be expected east
of the Hays to Dodge City line after 3pm.

Later tonight...Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
up to 45 mph will develop after 10 pm this evening as the
convection tapers off, skies begin to clear and the surface cold
front moves into northwest Oklahoma early tonight. These gusty
winds will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas with the
lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. The wind
chills early Friday morning will be as low as the mid to upper
20s...especially north of the Arkansas River.

On Friday these gusty north northwest winds will decrease during
the day as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
western Kansas. Afternoon wind speeds across western Kansas will
be around 10 mph. Unseasonably cool temperatures can also be
expected with highs only in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

Frost still looks possible early Saturday morning across west
central and north central Kansas as temperatures fall back into
the mid 30s in several locations north of a Syracuse to Garden
City to Larned line. Temperatures will then rebound back into the
70s Saturday afternoon based on the forecast 00z Sunday 850mb
temperatures and northwesterly downslope flow that will be
developing during the day.

These near seasonal temperatures on Saturday will give way to
some cooler temperatures on Sunday given that another shot of
cooler air will accompany a cold frontal passage late Saturday
night. Models continue to advertise that this frontal passage will
be a dry frontal passage so only some gusty north winds and
cooler temperatures can be expected late Saturday night and
Sunday.

The cold front will become stationary early next week just south
of the Oklahoma border. Warm moist air will be lifted up and north
of this boundary early next week which will result in not only an
increase in cloud cover but also produce a chance for
precipitation each day from late Sunday through Wednesday. At this
time the best opportunity for widespread rainfall will be Monday
night/early Tuesday when an upper level trough exits the Rockies
and crosses the West Central High Plains. Another upper level wave
is expected to cross the Central Plains mid week. Severe weather
at this time is not anticipated with any of these storms early
next week but some beneficial rainfall is beginning to look more
and more likely.

Temperatures early next week will stay on the cool side given the
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Highs in the 50s and 60s
still look likely Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

TEMPO for the possibility of isolated storms around DDC and HYS
for roughly 1 hr between 01Z and 02Z as a cold front moves through
western Kansas. Wind speeds behind the front will increase after
08Z to 20-30 kts and gusts over 35 kts possible. Post frontal
stratus will lower ceiling heights to mainly MVFR conditions
between 09-15Z and then ceilings should rise after that as skies
clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  62  37  71 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  38  63  37  73 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  39  63  38  75 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  41  63  36  74 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  39  61  36  69 /  30   0   0   0
P28  46  64  37  70 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-080730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
217 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 /117 AM MDT Thu May 7 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this
evening across the far southeast zones. Any storms are most likely
southeast of a Coldwater-St. John line. Any storm that does
develop may produce marginally severe hail.

Very strong north winds are expected tonight and early Friday
behind a cold front. Winds gusts to near 50 mph are expected.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Strong north winds will diminish early Friday.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s Saturday morning.
Southeast winds by sunrise Saturday are expected to preclude
widespread frost/freeze concerns.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Frost: Limited risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible across the southeast zones
Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ045-046-064-065-080045-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
715 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ness City, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ness City, Bazine and Alexander.

LAT...LON 3832 9996 3849 9989 3848 9952 3818 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 286DEG 15KT 3839 9983

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
721 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ064-078-080045-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
721 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD AND SOUTHERN
HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Jetmore, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jetmore and Spearville.

LAT...LON 3793 10014 3809 10009 3810 9963 3774 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 276DEG 22KT 3800 9999

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
727 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ077-078-088-080100-
Gray KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
727 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...EAST CENTRAL
GRAY AND NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 726 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ensign, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneola, Ford, Ensign and Bloom.

LAT...LON 3756 10025 3773 10022 3771 9971 3736 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 288DEG 20KT 3763 10013

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
756 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ077-078-087-088-080130-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
756 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Fowler, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneola.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3748 10034 3765 10029 3759 9998 3730 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 287DEG 16KT 3752 10016

JJOHNSON