Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
121 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Today-Tonight: Isolated convection is anticipated to
develop ~20Z this afternoon.. as small amplitude shortwave energy
progresses southeastward from Eastern Colorado into Western
Kansas in the presence of a relatively dry albeit marginally
unstable airmass characterized by 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
250-500 J/kg mlcape, ~1000 J/kg dcape, and effective shear values
on the order of 20-30 knots. In such an environment, expect
convection to be multicellular in nature. With steep low-mid
level lapse rates /inverted-V profiles/, 30-40 degree sfc dewpoint
depressions and modest dcape -- isold instances of damaging winds
will be possible in assoc/w the deepest updrafts -- mainly
between 20-01Z.

Friday-Saturday night: Expect intermittent chances for convection
in assoc/w small amplitude waves in NW flow aloft, with the
relative best chance during the afternoon and evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

A northwest flow aloft regime continues Sunday through Thursday.
Long range models show several quick moving disturbances traverse
across southwest Kansas throughout the extended forecast period.
An upper level ridge axis cross the CWA Sunday. Broad flow sits
over the CONUS west of the Mississippi following the passing ridge
axis.

An amplifying trough moves from the northern Plains to Midwest
Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. The GFS shows little direct
impact to SW KS from the trough while the ECMWF has the base of the
trough cross the CWA Tuesday. A ridge over the western U.S. moves
into southwest Kansas Tuesday night. Models show the ridge axis
crossing the central Plains Thursday.

Surface low pressure crosses the central U.S. Monday night into
Tuesday dragging behind a cold front. The cold front will pass
through southwest Kansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. Most of
the extended forecast period is dry with some scattered chances for
thunderstorms associated with the cold front. Expect highs to range
from the mid-70s to upper 80s and lows to range from the mid-40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon (20-00Z), mainly at the DDC/HYS terminals. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. 10-15 knot
westerly winds will prevail at all terminals this afternoon,
becoming light/variable after sunset. Gusty/erratic winds can be
expected invof any convection this afternoon. Winds will shift to
the N and increase to 10-15 knots late tonight (07-10Z Fri),
strengthening to 15-20 knots with gusts up to ~25 knots several
hours after sunrise (~15Z Fri).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  48  65  40 /  20  20  40   0
GCK  78  45  64  37 /  10  20  30   0
EHA  79  45  66  40 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  79  47  66  39 /  10  20  30   0
HYS  80  48  68  40 /  20  20  30   0
P28  81  52  68  43 /  20  20  40   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Newman
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241600-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1047 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 /947 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible mainly across
portions of Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties after 4 PM
this afternoon. No severe weather is expected, however,
dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning is a hazard with all
thunderstorms.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     HAIL             HAYNE                   37.09N 100.80W
04/22/2020  E1.25 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

MLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
302 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

KSZ031-232045-
Ellis KS-
302 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Victoria, moving northeast at 25 mph.

At 2:56 PM a wind gust of 56 mph was reported at the Hays airport.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Walker, Emmeram, Toulon and Munjor.

LAT...LON 3881 9904 3872 9932 3886 9944 3891 9922
      3903 9916 3908 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 241DEG 42KT 3884 9917

TATRO