Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Mid level instability will be improving through early this
evening as a -23C 500mb upper level trough crosses southwest
Kansas. Occasional thunderstorms still look on track for all of
western Kansas this evening based on the forecast instability,
lift, and moisture in the 5000 to 9000ft AGL ahead of this upper
level trough. Precipitable water values of 0.8" or greater
supports the potential for periods of heavy rainfall with any of
the stronger storms. At this time it appears that the better
instability and 0-6km shear will exist west/southwest of Dodge
City late today. Also in this region the steering flow is
forecast to be more parallel to the surface boundary near the
Colorado border so any storm that develops should line out fairly
quickly. Hail up up to 1.5" not completely out of the question for
a few hours early in the the event but then strong winds and 1"
hail will become the main hazard as the developing line of
thunderstorms roll southeast across far southwest Kansas early
this evening along the 0-1km theta-e ridge axis. Will also need to
monitor the potential for an isolate tornado late today along
this line, especially near the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms
across southwest Kansas will taper off from west to east after 03z
Tuesday as the cold upper level trough moves east into central
Kansas.

An area of high pressure at the surface will build across western
Kansas on Tuesday as skies clear from west to east. Some cooler
air is expected to settle into central and portions of western
Kansas but as a westerly downslope flow begins to develop during
the day this will offset any cooling than is expected across far
western Kansas. Highs Tuesday afternoon west of highway 283 will
be in the mid to upper 60s while near 60 degrees are more likely
for highs further east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Warmer temperatures will be returning to southwest Kansas mid
week as an upper level ridge crosses the Central Plains. Based on
the 24hr warming trend from the 850mb temperatures from 00z to 00z
each day it appears that temperatures should easily rebound back
into the 70s mid week. Could even see a few 80 degree temperatures
in extreme southwest Kansas and along the Oklahoma border on
Wednesday.

A cold front will drop south across the Northern Plains mid week
and based on the GFS and ECMWF this frontal boundary will cross
southwest Kansas early Thursday. This will not only bring a brief
cool down late week but will also produce a slight chance for
precipitation. Gusty winds developing mid week ahead of the
approaching cold front will result in increasing fire weather
conditions given the warm and dry conditions across southwest
Kansas. After the late week cool down a warming trend still
appears likely over the weekend. Highs currently are expected to
rebound from the 50s on Friday to the 60s/lower 70s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage late today and early
this evening as mid level instability, moisture and lift ahead of
an approaching -23c 500mb trough improves across western Kansas. VFR
ceilings in the 4000 to 9000 ft AGL at 17z Monday will lower into
the 1500 to 3000ft level between 00z and 03z Tuesday as these
thunderstorms increase across the area. Thunderstorms will taper
off from northwest to east between 03z and 06z Tuesday and as
these storms taper off an area of IFR ceilings can be expected to
develop. These IFR conditions will linger across southwest Kansas
through 15z Tuesday. Gusty southeast winds today at 15 to 20
knots will shift to the north northeast between 03z and 06z
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  40  63  43 /  80  70   0   0
GCK  61  38  65  41 /  50  60   0   0
EHA  67  40  70  44 /  80  60   0   0
LBL  63  41  66  43 /  50  60   0   0
HYS  67  40  63  42 /  40  80   0   0
P28  65  43  62  43 /  90  90   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
500 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 /400 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over far southwest
Kansas later this afternoon and early evening. The most
signifiant severe weather threat will be hail up to quarter to
ping pong ball size.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed along and south of a Johnson to
Meade line later this afternoon.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

KSZ074-084-302100-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonington, or 8 miles southwest of The Saunders Elevator, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Saunders Elevator.

LAT...LON 3755 10204 3760 10196 3729 10176 3726 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 241DEG 17KT 3737 10213

FINCH