Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Dodge City, KS

828 
WWUS53 KDDC 112220
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

KSC119-175-112245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-200611T2245Z/
Seward KS-Meade KS-
520 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD AND NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES...

At 520 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Plains, or 9
miles west of Missler, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Missler and Plains. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 10075 3739 10072 3739 10066 3740 10065
      3744 10029 3718 10033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 278DEG 18KT 3732 10060 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

TATRO

084 
WWUS53 KDDC 112230
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

KSC175-112239-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-200611T2245Z/
Seward KS-
530 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3725 10063 3740 10063 3740 10061 3741 10054
      3744 10029 3718 10033 3722 10051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 279DEG 28KT 3731 10050 

$$

KSC119-112245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-200611T2245Z/
Meade KS-
530 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY...

At 529 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Missler, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Missler and Plains. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 10063 3740 10063 3740 10061 3741 10054
      3744 10029 3718 10033 3722 10051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 279DEG 28KT 3731 10050 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

TATRO

975 
WWUS53 KDDC 112242
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

KSC119-112252-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-200611T2245Z/
Meade KS-
542 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3725 10063 3740 10063 3740 10061 3741 10054
      3744 10029 3718 10033 3722 10051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 279DEG 28KT 3730 10038 

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
149 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

The latest models earlier this afternoon are coming into
generally good agreement with some widely scattered thunderstorms
being possible early this evening along a surface boundary
extending from extreme southwest Kansas, Elkhart/Hugoton, to near
Dodge City given mid level lapse rates of +8c/km and improving
0-1km moisture convergence. A few of these storms may even be
capable of producing wind gusts of 50 mph or a little higher
based on the forecast model soundings showing late day inverted V
with cloud bases at or above 10000ft and downdraft cape
of>1000j/kg. Severe weather however is not anticipated. What
storms that do develop after 5 pm this Thursday evening will move
southeast and are currently expected to cross the Oklahoma border
by 9pm this evening.

Will then need to monitor the slight chance for a few isolated
early morning thunderstorms near the eastern edge of 10 to 13C
700mb temperature gradient where some 850mb warm air advection
will be present along with mid level lapse rages of 7.5c/km or
greater. Location of this area of possible convection will be near
and east of a Dodge City to Meade line.

Friday a surface boundary will be located near the Oklahoma
border with models indicating once again late day instability and
0-1km forcing along this boundary. At this time can not rule out a
few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Friday
evening...mainly south and west of a Meade to Sublette line.

Highs Friday are expected to be several degrees warmer compared
to the highs Thursday afternoon given the 2-4C warmup in 850mb
temperatures from 00z Friday to 00z Saturday. Highs in the mid to
upper 90s still look on track for southwest Kansas. Northeast of
Dodge City the afternoon highs will range from 90 to 95.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Hot and Dry Weekend can be expected across western Kansas this
weekend and next week given the forecast 850mb and 700mb
temperatures at 00z each day from 00z Sunday through 00z Friday.
The upper low forecast yesterday to develop and deepen over the
Ohio valley is still forecast to develop late this weekend but it
is now forecast to wobble south southeast towards the east coast
early next week as the upper ridge axis shifts from the Plains to
the Mississippi Valley. As a result the slightly cooler air that
might have spread into portions of central Kansas towards mid week
no longer will occur. Now the ECMWF and GFS both are in good
agreement with 850mb temperatures at 00z each day next week will
ranging from around 30 to near 35 across southwest Kansas. As a
result several days of highs around 100 degrees are looking more
and more likely across western Kansas from Saturday through at
Thursday.

A southwesterly flow will be present across the Rockies and the
Plains late this weekend into early next week. Several upper
level disturbances embedded in this flow will cross the west
central high plains which will provide an opportunity for
thunderstorms along a surface boundary in eastern Colorado each
evening from Sunday through possibly Wednesday. At this time it
appears that the better opportunity of storms next week will stay
west of the Colorado border and northwest of Garden City.
Uncertainty is high however on where the boundary will be and the
exact track of each of these upper level waves next week so a few
isolated evening thunderstorms north and west of Garden CIty can
not be completely ruled out. The probability is low enough however
so will not to include a mention of thunderstorms in the later
period of the forecast just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Gusty southwest winds around 20 knots this Thursday afternoon
will decrease to 10 knots or less between 21z Thursday and 00z
Friday as a surface boundary settles into southwest Kansas. Along
this boundary afternoon clouds in the 9000 to 12000ft AGL will be
possible along with a few widely scattered thunderstorms. Liberal
will be in the most favorable for any isolated storm or two that
may develop between 22z Thursday and 02z Friday. Will monitor the
Dodge City area but at this time it appears any storm that does
develop near the Dodge City area will be well south of the
airport. Any storm that does develop late today will move south of
the Oklahoma border by sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  62  95  63 /  10  20  10   0
GCK  93  60  95  61 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  96  61  97  63 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  96  61  98  63 /  30  20  20  20
HYS  92  59  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
P28  94  64  97  65 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
323 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-120830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
323 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 /223 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

KSZ076-077-086-087-112215-
Gray KS-Seward KS-Meade KS-Haskell KS-
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Satanta, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Copeland, Tice and Plains.

LAT...LON 3729 10097 3742 10101 3756 10054 3722 10049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 266DEG 28KT 3735 10089

TATRO