Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Dodge City, KS

129 
WWUS53 KDDC 250215
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
915 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSC047-083-135-145-165-250230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200525T0230Z/
Ness KS-Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Rush KS-Edwards KS-
915 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN NESS...HODGEMAN...PAWNEE...SOUTHERN RUSH AND
NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

At 914 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Frizell to near Hanston to 9 miles west of
Jetmore, moving north northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Larned, Jetmore, Burdett, Hanston, Garfield, Rozel, Ash Valley,
Sanford, Frizell and Shaffer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 9914 3792 10002 3828 10023 3847 9903
      3835 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 150DEG 22KT 3816 9926 3816 9970 3807 10007 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Severe and potential heavy rain threat for this evening still
looks likely. The frontal boundary as of this discussion is
located roughly from Elkhart to Scott City to Hill City...with
plenty of sunshine ahead of the front which is destabilizing the
atmosphere ahead of the front. The upper level trough is slowly
moving through western Colorado with subsequent 700 mb shortwaves
entering into both northern New Mexico and far southwest Kansas.
These will be the two areas where thunderstorm activity is
expected to break out this afternoon. CAM models have stayed in
pretty good agreement that storms along the cold front in Kansas
should start going up around 4-5 pm initially as supercells for a
few hours and then evolving into a line along the front. The
supercells will have the capability of large hail (2 inches or
greater) and a isolated tornado or landspout threat especially
around the front and then eventually turn into a flash flooding
threat as the storms train along the same areas. Model forecast
rainfall amounts are in the order of 1-2 inches for areas along
and east of highway 283 in the flash flood watch for tonight. The
second round of storms will develop in southeast Colorado (around
Pueblo to Trinidad) and move eastward through the afternoon
eventually crossing into Kansas sometime around or shortly after 7
pm. Given the fact they should ride along the frontal boundary
and be in line form as well these storms should have mainly a wind
threat.

For Monday the upper level trough doesn't move all the much
eastward through Colorado...but what movement it does make will
provide enough momentum for much colder air to come across western
Kansas through the day. 850 mb temps are forecast to be in the
6-10 (C) range. Rain will continue through much of the morning
before starting to diminish slowly from west to east through the
afternoon. With north winds, cloud cover, unseasonably cooler air,
and rain through much of the morning...afternoon highs will
struggle to get into the low 60s for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The slow moving upper trough from Colorado will move southeast
into Texas for Tuesday and Wednesday and turn into a closed upper
low. With a blocking high over the Atlantic ocean the closed low
will be very slow moving and influence the weather in Kansas
through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will continue to
stay cool for Tuesday and Wednesday as north winds aloft will
continue to advect cooler air in from the northern plains. Most of
the precipitation with the low given the present track should stay
off to the south in Oklahoma and to the east towards southeast
Kansas. Towards Friday another strong push of colder air will move
in clipping our eastern zones as the brunt of the air mass should
go through the Great Lakes. By the weekend we may begin to see
warmer air start to move out of the Rockies back into the central
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will be around the airports for much of
the night into Monday morning. Storms will initially be around
DDC and HYS in the vicinity of a cold front over the next couple
of hours. More storms and rain will move out of eastern Colorado
into western Kansas later tonight bringing chances of storms
around the airports from 03Z-09Z. Winds behind the front will
start to increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts after 12-14Z.
Cloud ceilings in and around the thunderstorms and rain will hover
between IFR and MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

With the combination of a slow moving upper level storm system in
Colorado, and a slow moving cold front in southwest and north
central Kansas, the potential for flash flooding tonight and early
Monday morning for areas mainly east of highway 283 continues to
exist. Storms should line up along the front after 4 pm and evolve
into a line after 7 pm. Some of the rain rates in the stronger
storms could approach 1 inch per hour and the storms training over
the same areas will be possible as well. The highest PW and
moisture transport rates continue to be through south central
Kansas so areas between Dodge City and Wichita will have the
greatest opportunity for the potential for flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  61  49  73 /  80  60  20  20
GCK  51  62  46  73 /  80  50  20  10
EHA  50  62  47  74 /  70  50  10  10
LBL  53  62  47  72 /  70  50  10  10
HYS  54  62  50  73 /  80  70  20  10
P28  61  67  55  73 /  80  90  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
HYDROLOGY...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
359 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 /259 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and early tonight. The main hazard from these storms will be 2
inch hail and strong damaging winds up to 70 mph.

Several rounds of heavy rainfall will also be possible from some
of these storms and as a result a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for locations along and east of a Hays to Larned to
Greensburg to Coldwater line. Please refer to the latest Flash
Flood Product (FFADDC) for more details.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------

* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms almost
each day from Monday through Thursday. The probability of severe
weather next week currently appears low but additional rainfall in
some areas of south central Kansas may result in some water
issues, especially in poor drainage and low lying areas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  No hazards.

* Saturday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm across southwest,
north central and south central Kansas. Rainfall reports are also
encouraged.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
800 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             MINNEOLA                37.44N 100.01W
05/24/2020  M2.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 S BUCKLIN             37.50N 99.63W
05/24/2020  E1.50 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             1 E MINNEOLA            37.44N 99.99W
05/24/2020  E2.00 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

            2.25 INCH HAIL.

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             10 SW RICHFIELD         37.18N 101.94W
05/24/2020  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
833 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ031-250215-
Ellis KS-
833 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yocemento, moving north at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Catherine, Yocemento and Toulon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3879 9929 3888 9951 3912 9943 3902 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 201DEG 9KT 3888 9938

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
836 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             BUCKLIN                 37.55N 99.63W
05/24/2020  E1.25 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            IMAGE ON TWITTER.

&&