Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Dodge City, KS

211 
WWUS53 KDDC 212233
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSC175-189-212300-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200521T2300Z/
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
533 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SEWARD AND EASTERN STEVENS COUNTIES...

At 533 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Liberal, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Kismet, Woods and Cave. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 10114 3724 10064 3705 10095 3707 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 210DEG 22KT 3710 10102 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

MSAS showing weak surface low pressure centered over the western
Oklahoma panhandle with attendant cold front from wet of Syracuse
into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Also a dryline and warmfront
extended south from near LBL into the Texas Panhandle. Ahead and
east of these features has been a stubborn field of stratus clouds
that has created a large temperatures difference from the upper 60s
to low 70s under the cloud cover and contrasted by low 80s over the
Sunny Syracuse-Johnson-Elkhart area. Latest HRRR initiate these
convective elements at 21 UTC along the cold front along the highway
25 corridor with organized elements reaching the highway 83 corridor
by around 10 pm. In addition to a hail and 60-70 mph wind threat, a
sizable area of 1 to 2 inch rain is likely with more localized areas
of 3 and 4 inches just as likely.  Increased Pops over the area as
widespread trailing stratiform precipitation is likely beyond
midnight even as the overall severe risk should be decreasing.
Uncertainty with respect to  and additional marginally elevated
severe pulse hail storms in the southeast will revolve around mid
level wave that will be moving into the area during the overnight
hours. Lows are forecast from the mid 50s west to more mild
summerlike 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Potential exists for thunderstorms to be ongoing early Friday
morning across the eastern and especially south central Kansas
counties as models show a mid level trough/weak pvu anomaly moving
though the area with still conditionally unstable air. This
should clear out though with sky becoming sunny area wide by
afternoon resulting in temperatures warming into the 80s all the
way to Hays. It will likely remain inactive later in the day
Friday with respect to convection, however the 850 wind field
transitions from weak easterly flow Friday to veering and
increasing winds though Saturday, with stronger south winds, and
better moisture transport ahead of a dryline for Saturday late
afternoon and Saturday evening. As a result , convection is
possible Saturday across the eastern counties. The southwest winds
will make temperatures much warmer on Saturday, before a cold
front tempers highs and focuses severe weather chances once again
along a southward propagating cold front through Sunday night.
This will setup Monday to likely be cooler and cloudy and perhaps
showery with diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Main impact to aviation will be the potential for convection, with
heavy rain, and lowered ceilings going into the mid evening hours. A
cold front over nw and far west central KS will be the likely
initiation point for a few scattered thunderstorms as early as 21
UTC. The initial storms should quickly begin to develop additional
cells on the outflow with a cold pool developing and driving an
MCS east-southeast through the late evening hours and beyond
midnight. There is good deep shear for initial rounds of large
hail in excess of 2 inches and downdraft cape to support
accelerating downbursts to 60 mph or more locally. More
uncertainly however in potential for widespread damaging winds
based on HRRR/HiRES model relatively low post gust front surface
wind output. An upper wave will be rotating through the region
during the early morning Friday which may translate into a
continued , mainly low end severe risk in central Kansas early
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  81  59  90 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  53  81  57  91 /  80  10   0   0
EHA  54  84  56  91 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  54  83  57  94 /  50  20   0   0
HYS  57  80  57  87 /  80  20  10  10
P28  61  81  63  88 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020 /245 AM MDT Thu May 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms late today and
early tonight. The main hazards will be hail 2 inches and larger,
strong damaging winds greater up to 70 mph and periods of heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
night. Large hail and periods of heavy rainfall currently appear
to be the main hazards from these storms.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm, especially south
of a Garden City to Dodge City line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
323 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ061-212200-
Hamilton KS-
323 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartman, or 11 miles northwest of Coolidge, moving north at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coolidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10182 3793 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 198DEG 5KT 3818 10212

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
446 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ061-074-212230-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
446 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...Brief Landspout Tornado Sighted...

At 442 PM CDT/342 PM MDT/, trained weather spotters reported a
landspout tornado about 10 miles north of Johnson. Conditions continue to
favor the potential for landspouts as storms develop; however at this
time it is unknown which if any storm would produce a landspout. Any
landspouts which develop are expected to pose a limited threat.

This landspout threat will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Stanton and southeastern Hamilton Counties.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 10175 3771 10190 3794 10166 3783 10155

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
451 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TORNADO          9 NNE COOLIDGE          38.17N 101.97W
05/21/2020                   HAMILTON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWIN LAND SPOUTS 10 NORTH 2 WEST OF
            SYRACUSE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
454 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ085-086-212245-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
454 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SEWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tyrone, or near Liberal, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal and Hayne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3723 10104 3724 10080 3711 10064 3700 10084
      3700 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 216DEG 20KT 3699 10103

UMSCHEID