Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Dodge City, KS

310 
WWUS53 KDDC 250052
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSC047-057-097-250130-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-200625T0130Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES...

At 752 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Mullinville, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Greensburg and Mullinville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 9948 3782 9929 3756 9930 3757 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 012DEG 8KT 3772 9943 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

616 
WWUS53 KDDC 250122
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
822 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSC047-057-097-250132-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-200625T0130Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
822 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FORD...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
830 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3785 9948 3782 9929 3756 9930 3757 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 009DEG 11KT 3763 9945 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Late morning mesoanalysis would suggest a severe weather risk
across SW Kansas this afternoon/early evening. Dewpoints in the
mid 60s across the central zones have established a respectable
axis of instability, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, already as of
late morning. Moisture convergence along a weak frontal boundary
is expected to get a few storms initiated by 3 pm, and effective
bulk shear will support some supercell structures given the ample
CAPE. SPC has upgraded the NE 1/3 of SW KS to a slight risk (15%
wind/hail probability), and we will update social media messaging.
The area of greatest concern is the NE/east zones, where
convergence on the weak frontal boundary, and enhanced
shear/backed surface winds will come into play near the remnant
outflow boundary from this morning's convection. It is NWly flow
in late June in western Kansas, and you have to be ready for the
"NW flow surprise/mesoscale accident". That said, overall forcing
for ascent is weak at best. Given this, we are confident to see
some storms, but coverage should be isolated. Given an isolated
supercell, hail up to 2 inches in diameter is possible.

South winds will remain elevated tonight, as boundary layer mixing
is maintained by a low level jet (850 mb/2000 ft agl winds to near
50 mph). As such, temperatures will struggle to fall to the mid to
upper 60s by sunrise Thursday.

The Kansas wind machine returns on Thursday, after a several day
break. Mid level flow will become zonal/westerly, which will in
turn deepen a 996 mb leeside surface cyclone near Goodland by
7 pm (per 12z NAM). Progged pressure gradients near 10 mb across
SW KS will support south wind gusts near 40 mph. Daylight hours of
Thursday appear dry, with scattered thunderstorms at least near
the northern zones Thursday night. Afternoon temperatures in the
mid 90s will be typical Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

The best chance of thunderstorms during the long term continues to
focus on the Friday/Friday night time frame, when the relative
maximum in pop grids from NBM was retained. 12z ECMWF continues to
suggest MCS generation in the western Kansas vicinity Friday
afternoon, and maturing into an MCS into eastern Kansas Friday
evening.

Over the weekend, modest westerly midlevel flow Saturday will
become SWly on Sunday, in response to a strong 554dm closed low
diving into Oregon by 7 pm Sunday. At least isolated late day
convection is most likely across the eastern zones Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday, closed low over the Pac NW slowly
dissolves into a broad trough per 12z ECMWF, making very little
progress eastward. Flow over the plains will remain SWly early
next week, but models suggest a weak nebulous flow, with probably
occasional weak shortwaves embedded. The moisture and instability
of late June will be there, so will need to determine thunderstorm
coverage/intensity on a day to day basis. There is little
convective predictability that far out, but it is clear the
afternoons will be hotter early next week, with maximum
temperatures in the upper 90s/near 100 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across portions of mainly
central Kansas early this evening at the onset of this TAF period,
with some thunderstorms attempting to back-build into Ford County.
This could affect the DDC terminal through the mid evening hours,
so we will maintain VCTS for DDC. We will keep the rest of the
terminals HYS, GCK, LBL free of thunderstorms in the TAF given
lower confidence and expected coverage. A nocturnal low level jet
will develop in the 45-50 knot range, leading to low level wind
shear concerns overnight. Strong south-southwest surface winds
will develop on Thursday with sustained winds in the 20 to 25 knot
range and gusts above 30 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  95  68  94 /  30  10  20  30
GCK  64  94  67  94 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  65  94  67  94 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  66  96  66  96 /  20  10  20  10
HYS  65  94  69  92 /  30  10  40  40
P28  67  93  69  96 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
305 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 /205 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon mainly along and south of highway 96. A few storms could
be capable of hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60
mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible for the next several days. Severe
risk should remain low however a few storms with the potential of
hail the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph can't be ruled
out.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSZ064-065-079-250030-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
702 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HODGEMAN...WEST
CENTRAL PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gray, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gray and Burdett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3810 9973 3822 9956 3806 9936 3791 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 316DEG 12KT 3811 9959

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 NNW LEWIS             37.98N 99.28W
06/24/2020  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3 INCH HAIL.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
706 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 NNW LEWIS             37.98N 99.28W
06/24/2020  E3.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED UP TO 3 INCH HAIL.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
708 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             1 ENE LEWIS             37.94N 99.24W
06/24/2020  E2.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER NETWORK REPORT OF 2 INCH SIZED HAIL.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
716 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             1 WSW LEWIS             37.93N 99.27W
06/24/2020  E2.50 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER NETWORK REPORT OF 2.5 INCH HAIL.

&&

RML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSZ074-075-250100-
Stanton KS-Grant KS-
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN
STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Johnson City, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and areas of blowing dust are expected.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City and Big Bow.

LAT...LON 3739 10175 3757 10179 3767 10141 3740 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 260DEG 12KT 3750 10168

TURNER