Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Dodge City, KS

234 
WWUS53 KDDC 240111
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSC075-240145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-200624T0145Z/
Hamilton KS-
711 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 711 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles southwest
of Syracuse, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Hamilton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 10198 3788 10178 3774 10175 3774 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 004DEG 9KT 3783 10189 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

548 
WWUS53 KDDC 240131
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
731 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSC075-240145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-200624T0145Z/
Hamilton KS-
731 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 731 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles southwest
of Syracuse, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Hamilton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10196 3785 10179 3774 10175 3774 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 004DEG 9KT 3778 10189 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

566 
WWUS53 KDDC 240135
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
735 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSC075-240145-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-200624T0145Z/
Hamilton KS-
735 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3785 10196 3785 10179 3774 10175 3774 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 004DEG 9KT 3777 10189 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Infrared satellite imagery shows last night's impressive MCC
(mesoscale convective complex) dissolving across Texas. Winds
are light with an easterly component, with a weak surface high
over central Kansas at midday. Winds will trend light SEly through
this evening, as the high retreats. Moisture and instability have
been depleted even more across Kansas, with midday mesoanalysis
placing an axis of MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg from SE Colorado to the
NE Texas panhandle. Given these trends, forecasted instability
fields from 12z NAM are not impressive for this afternoon and
evening. Expect CAPE of 2000 J/kg or less, in a marginally sheared
environment, as NWly flow continues aloft. A cumulus field later
this afternoon will give way to at least isolated thunderstorms
west of US 83 this afternoon/evening. Marginal 5% wind/hail
probability from SPC is on track.

Winds will trend southerly tonight, averaging 10-15 mph by sunrise
Wednesday. Minimum sunrise temperatures very near where they
should be in late June, in the lower 60s. In response to the
expected weak warm advection, HRRR/12z NAM develop scattered
showers across the NE zones in the vicinity of Hays by sunrise.
Slight chance to chance pops were retained through the night to
catch any activity. Most locations will remain dry.

Upper anticyclone over the Desert SW begins to weaken Wednesday,
but NWly midlevel flow will be maintained. After very light winds
Tuesday, S/SW winds will noticeably increase Wednesday afternoon,
in response to 999 mb lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Models
show about +5C net warming at 850 mb, and with improved mixing and
downslope flow, Wednesday afternoon will be noticeably hotter.
Most locations will warm into the lower 90s. Confident on
scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening,
but models are struggling where to put them. CAM concensus is
across the NE zones, where a marginal 5% hail/wind risk from SPC
is forecast. Truthfully, these marginally severe storms could be
anywhere across SW KS, and many zones will carry 20-30% pops. For
example, ECMWF argues for SE 1/2 of the CWA Wednesday PM.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Upper high pressure over the Desert SW weakens further on
Thursday, which in turn will allow midlevel flow to become more
zonal/westerly and perpendicular to the Rockies. As such, lee side
troughing/cyclogenesis will strengthen, with 12z NAM progging a
996 mb surface low east of Denver at 4 pm Thursday. In turn,
strong south winds will return Thursday afternoon. As usual, NBM
wind grids are too light, with MAV guidance of 25-35 mph looking
much better. With improved mixing and the atmosphere continuing to
warm, maximum temperatures of 92-94 will be common Thursday
afternoon. Most of Thursday will be dry for most zones, with the
most likely scenario suggesting thunderstorms entering the NW
zones Thursday evening.

The most interesting day of the long term, relative to convective
potential, is Friday. Medium range models depict a broad,
positively-tilted midlevel trough, oriented from the western Great
Lakes to southern Colorado at 7 pm Friday. 12z ECMWF depicts
widespread convective QPF across SW Kansas Friday PM, as forcing
for ascent ahead of the Colorado trough/shortwave interacts with
available moisture/instability and likely weak meandering surface
boundaries. ECMWF focuses its highest CAPE and energy helicity
index across the SE zones, where a relative maximum in pops was
retained in the forecast (nudged above NBM). Will need to watch
the Friday PM timeframe for the potential for large hail/damaging
winds and heavy rainfall.

ECMWF solutions develop the Colorado portion of the trough into a
small closed low over Kansas on Saturday, which will necessitate
keeping at least some chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Afterwards, Sunday and Monday, 12z ECMWF shows continuity
advertising a major synoptic pattern change, with strong troughing
along the west coast and strong ridging relocating to the plains.
Details regarding convective potential past Sunday are very murky,
typical when the models change the synoptic regime significantly.
One thing we have confidence on is hotter afternoons, with mid to
upper 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Overall, aviation weather will be quiet with VFR flight category
forecast through this TAF period. Widely scattered thunderstorms
this evening are expected to remain west of the LBL and GCK
terminals across mainly eastern Colorado. An isolated late day
thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday, however the anticipated
coverage is too small to warrant mention in this TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  90  65  92 /  10  20  30   0
GCK  61  91  64  93 /  10  20  30   0
EHA  62  88  64  92 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  62  90  64  92 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  61  89  66  92 /  10  30  30  10
P28  65  89  66  92 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
258 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
258 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 /158 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly west
of a Scott City to Meade line. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe with the main threat of wind gusts to 60 mph and
hail the size of quarters.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Off and on chances of storms will continue over the next several
days. Overall severe threat will be low however a few storms could
have the potential for wind gusts to 60 mph and hail the size of
quarters.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSZ061-240045-
Hamilton KS-
618 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 618 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Syracuse, moving south at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Hamilton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10198 3794 10159 3774 10155 3774 10201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 357DEG 19KT 3792 10186

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

KSZ061-240145-
Hamilton KS-
643 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM MDT...

At 643 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Coolidge, moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Hamilton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 10199 3795 10173 3775 10155 3775 10202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 349DEG 11KT 3792 10192

SUGDEN