Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

302 
WWUS53 KDDC 222350
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

KSC171-222359-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200423T0000Z/
Scott KS-
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3827 10083 3826 10079 3803 10075 3805 10110
      3826 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 353DEG 32KT 3813 10094 

$$

KSC055-230000-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200423T0000Z/
Finney KS-
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY COUNTY...

At 649 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Friend, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Friend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10083 3826 10079 3803 10075 3805 10110
      3826 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 353DEG 32KT 3813 10094 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GERARD

142 
WWUS53 KDDC 222359
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

KSC055-230008-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200423T0000Z/
Finney KS-
659 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small 
hail and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3827 10083 3826 10079 3803 10075 3805 10110
      3826 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 354DEG 33KT 3805 10093 

$$

GERARD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

The upper level cold pool moving across central Kansas this
afternoon was resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially along the Oklahoma line and east of Dodge City. With
the loss of heating, this activity will die off, resulting in
clearing and cool conditions tonight with temperatures falling
back into the 40s. Western Kansas will be between systems
Thursday. But with NW mid to high level flow, cold air at mid
levels, plentiful daytime heating (highs 75 to 80) and a moisture
gradient, an isolated thunderstorm or two may develop in the
afternoon. Surface based CAPE values should approach 1000 j/kg,
although low level winds will be light. T-storms that develop
could contain small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. The best chance
of storms (less than 20%) is from Larned southward to Pratt and
Medicine Lodge ahead of the moisture gradient.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Northwesterly mid to high level flow will persist through Tuesday,
with enough of a westerly component across the Rockies to
encourage occasional weak surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies. Low level moisture will be situated not to far
to the south. One shortwave trough embedded in NW flow will
amplify over the plains Thursday night into Friday. Although this
system will push a surface front south of here quickly, some
elevated convection is possible Thursday night and Friday,
especially given the persistently cold mid level temperatures. The
cold front with this system will push into south Texas; but at
least some residual moisture will persist across south central
Kansas Saturday. Saturday will most likely be dry though. Then as
the mid to upper level flow turns more westerly by Sunday, a
surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies and advect
better low level moisture northward into the central plains. With
a moisture gradient in place across western Kansas Sunday,
isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Elevated thunderstorms
are possible Sunday night ahead of the next minor disturbance. On
Monday, there is a slightly better chance of isolated thunderstorm
activity as better low level moisture advances northward, and
these would have a better chance of being at least marginally
severe given the increased moisture and shear. A much stronger
system will rapidly move southeastward out of Canada by Tuesday
into the northern plains and upper Midwest. There is a small very
small chance of thunderstorms across south central Kansas ahead of
the associated front, with most of western Kansas being dry. The
lower levels will dry out significantly for Wednesday and Thursday
across all of central and southwestern Kansas so that precipitation
is not expected. The warmest days next week should be Monday and
Tuesday ahead of the stronger front, with highs in the 80s likely.

What about chances for freezing temperatures into early May? Based
on all the model guidance, freezing temperatures are very unlikely
through the end of April. And based on the long term climatology,
the chances of 32F or colder temperatures at Dodge City after 1
May is only about 20%. Of course, overnight lows in extreme
western Kansas often run several degrees cooler; so there is a
little better chance on average for Syracuse and Johnson to see
freezing temperatures in early May compared to locations to the
east. But there is nothing in the model guidance out to 2 May that
suggests freezing temperatures anywhere across western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

VFR conditions throughout the entire TAF period for all locations
with improving sky conditions and diminishing north winds around
8-12kts as the gradient weakens as an upper level disturbance
moves further east. Increasing clouds and winds out of the west
around 12-15kts as another disturbance pushes across the CWA by
20Z with any thunderstorm activity staying east of all locations
into central and south central Kansas. No other weather elements
expected during this period and beyond as high pressure builds
back into the high plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  79  47  67 /  10  10  30  30
GCK  41  79  44  66 /  10   0  30  30
EHA  42  78  46  67 /  10   0  30  30
LBL  42  79  45  67 /  10   0  30  30
HYS  43  78  46  67 /  10  10  20  30
P28  47  77  52  70 /  30  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-231000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
330 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 /230 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Frequent lightning, hail up to quarters and periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible from a few of the stronger
thunderstorms near the Oklahoma border south and southeast of
Dodge City through 9 am.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible from
late morning through mid afternoon across all of southwest and
south central Kansas. The main hazard from these thunderstorms
later today will be cloud to ground lightning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed before 9 am south of a
Dodge City to Pratt line. Rainfall reports are also encouraged.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc