Alert archive / Kansas / Heat Advisories in 2020
Heat Advisory 2, NWS Dodge City, KS
NWS Dodge City, KS issued this heat advisory at Jul 17, 2020, 3:12 AM CDT for Barber County, Clark County, Comanche County, Kansas. It took effect at Jul 17, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2020, 3:12 AM CDT (08:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 17, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2020, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Dodge City, KS
Counties Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1029 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1930 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Jul 17, 2:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 2:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...Updated Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 As the last several runs of NAM/HRRR have been hinting at, a weak shortwave is providing just enough lift to initiate convection across the western zones as of midnight. Have already increased pop grids substantially through sunrise across the western, into the northern counties. Latest HRRR iterations dissipate this activity across the northern zones late tonight. Instability will be sufficient to maintain some robust updrafts, with mesoanalysis indicating MUCAPE in the 2-3000 J/kg range. Shear is virtually nonexistent, but moisture availability is high, providing locally heavy rainfall, lightning and perhaps sub severe-caliber hail at times. Still expecting a transition toward hotter/drier to begin on Friday under strong high pressure aloft (594-595 dm 500 mb heights). Models show strong warming at 850 mb versus Thursday, with net warming near +6C. Coupled with a much more defined SWly downsloping boundary layer flow, afternoon temperatures will respond, with all locations within a few degrees of 100 by 4 pm. The hottest temperatures of 102-105 will be found near the Oklahoma border, nearest the core of the high pressure aloft. 00z NAM progs leeside cyclogenesis near 1000 mb across NE Colorado Friday afternoon, supporting S/SW wind gusts to at least near 30 mph at times. Increased wind/wind gust grids about 3-5 mph across the board, and this mixing will encourage the warmup. Moist soils and green vegetation from recent rainfall may keep temperatures 1-2 degrees below the forecast values in some locales. The heat will build further on Saturday, with compression in the pre-frontal warm sector. 00z NAM progs a 998 mb surface low near Syracuse at 7 pm, with widespread triple digit heat Saturday afternoon. Held back a few degrees from the hottest guidance (again considering recent rainfall and vegetation) but still afternoon temperatures of 103-107 will be common across the south central/SE zones Saturday afternoon. All grids are dry for all zones daylight Friday, through Friday night, and through daylight Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A break from the heat is expected Sunday (especially northern zones) as high pressure weakens aloft, and a weak cold front sneaks into SW KS. Some northern zones may hold in the upper 80s Sunday afternoon, and trimmed a few degrees off the NBM max temp grid especially north. With the frontal boundary acting as a focusing mechanism, and weaker heights/cooler temperatures aloft, the uptick in shower/thunderstorm coverage to the 40-50% range offered by the NBM for Sunday evening was accepted. Flow will be weak and nebulous Sunday, between one upper high over the Four Corners, and another over Tennessee. As such, pulse type convection will dominate with locally heavy rainfall. GFS shows strong moistening of the atmospheric column Sunday, with precipitable water near/over 1.5 inches, and near 2 inches across the eastern zones. Some local flooding issues are possible Sunday where storms decide to track. Weakness in the upper ridge axis over SW KS Sunday is forecast by 00z ECMWF to persist Monday, keeping the heat at bay, and keeping convection prospects alive. 00z ECMWF supports the next relative maximum in NBM's pop grids Monday afternoon/evening. Confident more scattered convection Monday will produce locally heavy rainfall once again, with perhaps some marginally severe wind/hail potential. Temperatures will be restricted to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Tuesday through Thursday, a trend toward hotter and drier is expected as the two high pressure centers aloft consolidate and organize over the plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 VFR flight conditions are expected this TAF period for all terminals. A few weak thunderstorms have been noted over the last hour or so over Stanton and Grant counties heading toward GCK and HYS, however confidence is low these storms will impact those terminals. Friday morning winds will increase out of the southwest and later combine with the nocturnal low level jet to produce strong low level shear across all terminals after 04Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 101 78 104 / 30 10 10 0 GCK 69 101 74 104 / 60 0 10 10 EHA 68 99 70 100 / 60 10 10 0 LBL 70 103 74 103 / 50 0 10 0 HYS 70 99 74 101 / 30 30 10 0 P28 73 102 77 103 / 10 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Springer
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 2:52 AM CDT, 20 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 17, 12:25 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 KSZ074>076-084>086-170630- Seward KS-Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-Morton KS- 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEWARD... NORTHEASTERN MORTON...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON...STEVENS AND SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT... At 1225 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Feterita, moving northeast at 30 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Ulysses, Hugoton, Johnson City, Sublette, Satanta, Moscow, Richfield, Ryus, Cave, Hickok, Big Bow and Feterita. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in Dodge City. && LAT...LON 3723 10187 3769 10172 3751 10075 3702 10133 TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 228DEG 35KT 3721 10150 HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 12:48 AM CDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 KSZ062-063-075>077-170630- Gray KS-Finney KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS- 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT... At 1248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Lakin, moving northeast at 35 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Garden City, Lakin, Holcomb, Deerfield, Pierceville and Plymell. LAT...LON 3764 10108 3790 10150 3826 10083 3793 10049 TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 231DEG 30KT 3784 10116 HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 1:21 AM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 KSZ061>063-074>077-170700- Gray KS-Finney KS-Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Grant KS- Haskell KS- 121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...KEARNY... FINNEY...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/... At 121 AM CDT/1221 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Lakin, moving northeast at 30 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Garden City, Ulysses, Lakin, Holcomb, Johnson City, Sublette, Satanta, Deerfield, Pierceville, Charleston, Ryus, Big Bow, Plymell and Hickok. LAT...LON 3742 10078 3746 10186 3820 10135 3814 10030 TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 230DEG 27KT 3782 10113 HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 1:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
KSZ062>064-076>078-170745-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Kearny KS-Haskell KS-Ford KS-
155 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
KEARNY...FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...GRAY
AND HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...
At 154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Plymell, moving northeast at 30 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Cimarron, Holcomb, Montezuma, Pierceville, Copeland,
Ingalls, Ensign, Charleston, Howell, Plymell, Kalvesta and The
Haggard Elev.
LAT...LON 3774 10109 3774 10112 3824 10093 3814 9997
3754 10029 3752 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 222DEG 36KT 3771 10076
HOVORKASpecial weather statement, Jul 17, 2:34 AM CDT, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 234 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 KSZ044-045-063-064-077-078-170815- Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-Ford KS- 234 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD...NORTHEASTERN FINNEY... WESTERN NESS...HODGEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN LANE AND GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT... At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles south of Ingalls, moving northeast at 35 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Dodge City, Cimarron, Ness City, Montezuma, Jetmore, Spearville, Ingalls, Ford, Hanston, Ensign, Charleston, Howell, Wright, Kalvesta, The Haggard Elev and Ft. Dodge. LAT...LON 3758 9968 3758 10059 3823 10064 3861 9975 TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 216DEG 32KT 3772 10044 HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:05 AM CDT, 7 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 11:20 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Morton | 40 min |
| Jul 16, 11:21 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Grant | 39 min |
| Jul 17, 12:00 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Morton, Stevens | 30 min |
| Jul 17, 12:25 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Grant, Stevens | 65 min |
| Jul 17, 12:48 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Finney, Kearny | 42 min |
| Jul 17, 1:21 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny | 39 min |
| Jul 17, 1:55 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Finney, Gray, Haskell | 50 min |
| Jul 17, 2:34 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Ford, Gray, Hodgeman, Ness | 41 min |
| Jul 17, 3:05 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Ness | 40 min |
| Jul 17, 3:39 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford | 51 min |
| Jul 17, 4:36 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | DDC | Stafford | 24 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.