Alert archive / Kansas / Heat Advisories in 2020

Heat Advisory 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 17, 2020Barber County, Clark County, Comanche County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this heat advisory at Jul 17, 2020, 3:12 AM CDT for Barber County, Clark County, Comanche County, Kansas. It took effect at Jul 17, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2020, 3:12 AM CDT (08:12 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 17, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
Expired
Jul 17, 2020, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Dodge City, KS

Counties Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2020-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1029 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2020-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 65 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1029 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-178 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1930 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Jul 17, 2:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 2:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

As the last several runs of NAM/HRRR have been hinting at, a weak
shortwave is providing just enough lift to initiate convection
across the western zones as of midnight. Have already increased
pop grids substantially through sunrise across the western, into
the northern counties. Latest HRRR iterations dissipate this
activity across the northern zones late tonight. Instability will
be sufficient to maintain some robust updrafts, with mesoanalysis
indicating MUCAPE in the 2-3000 J/kg range. Shear is virtually
nonexistent, but moisture availability is high, providing locally
heavy rainfall, lightning and perhaps sub severe-caliber hail at
times.

Still expecting a transition toward hotter/drier to begin on
Friday under strong high pressure aloft (594-595 dm 500 mb
heights). Models show strong warming at 850 mb versus Thursday,
with net warming near +6C. Coupled with a much more defined SWly
downsloping boundary layer flow, afternoon temperatures will
respond, with all locations within a few degrees of 100 by 4 pm.
The hottest temperatures of 102-105 will be found near the
Oklahoma border, nearest the core of the high pressure aloft.
00z NAM progs leeside cyclogenesis near 1000 mb across NE Colorado
Friday afternoon, supporting S/SW wind gusts to at least near
30 mph at times. Increased wind/wind gust grids about 3-5 mph
across the board, and this mixing will encourage the warmup. Moist
soils and green vegetation from recent rainfall may keep
temperatures 1-2 degrees below the forecast values in some
locales.

The heat will build further on Saturday, with compression in the
pre-frontal warm sector. 00z NAM progs a 998 mb surface low near
Syracuse at 7 pm, with widespread triple digit heat Saturday
afternoon. Held back a few degrees from the hottest guidance
(again considering recent rainfall and vegetation) but still
afternoon temperatures of 103-107 will be common across the south
central/SE zones Saturday afternoon.

All grids are dry for all zones daylight Friday, through Friday
night, and through daylight Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

A break from the heat is expected Sunday (especially northern
zones) as high pressure weakens aloft, and a weak cold front
sneaks into SW KS. Some northern zones may hold in the upper 80s
Sunday afternoon, and trimmed a few degrees off the NBM max temp
grid especially north. With the frontal boundary acting as a
focusing mechanism, and weaker heights/cooler temperatures aloft,
the uptick in shower/thunderstorm coverage to the 40-50% range
offered by the NBM for Sunday evening was accepted. Flow will be
weak and nebulous Sunday, between one upper high over the Four
Corners, and another over Tennessee. As such, pulse type
convection will dominate with locally heavy rainfall. GFS shows
strong moistening of the atmospheric column Sunday, with
precipitable water near/over 1.5 inches, and near 2 inches across
the eastern zones. Some local flooding issues are possible Sunday
where storms decide to track.

Weakness in the upper ridge axis over SW KS Sunday is forecast by
00z ECMWF to persist Monday, keeping the heat at bay, and keeping
convection prospects alive. 00z ECMWF supports the next relative
maximum in NBM's pop grids Monday afternoon/evening. Confident
more scattered convection Monday will produce locally heavy
rainfall once again, with perhaps some marginally severe wind/hail
potential. Temperatures will be restricted to the upper 80s and
lower 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday, a trend toward hotter and drier is
expected as the two high pressure centers aloft consolidate and
organize over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

VFR flight conditions are expected this TAF period for all
terminals. A few weak thunderstorms have been noted over the last
hour or so over Stanton and Grant counties heading toward GCK and
HYS, however confidence is low these storms will impact those
terminals. Friday morning winds will increase out of the southwest
and later combine with the nocturnal low level jet to produce
strong low level shear across all terminals after 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 101  78 104 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  69 101  74 104 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  68  99  70 100 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  70 103  74 103 /  50   0  10   0
HYS  70  99  74 101 /  30  30  10   0
P28  73 102  77 103 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Springer
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 2:52 AM CDT, 20 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 17, 12:25 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

KSZ074>076-084>086-170630-
Seward KS-Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-Morton KS-
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEWARD...
NORTHEASTERN MORTON...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON...STEVENS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1225 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Feterita, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Hugoton, Johnson City, Sublette, Satanta, Moscow, Richfield,
Ryus, Cave, Hickok, Big Bow and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Dodge City.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 10187 3769 10172 3751 10075 3702 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 228DEG 35KT 3721 10150

HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 12:48 AM CDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

KSZ062-063-075>077-170630-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN KEARNY...WESTERN
FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN
HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Lakin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Lakin, Holcomb, Deerfield, Pierceville and Plymell.

LAT...LON 3764 10108 3790 10150 3826 10083 3793 10049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 231DEG 30KT 3784 10116

HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 1:21 AM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

KSZ061>063-074>077-170700-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Grant KS-
Haskell KS-
121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...KEARNY...
FINNEY...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/...

At 121 AM CDT/1221 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Lakin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Ulysses, Lakin, Holcomb, Johnson City, Sublette,
Satanta, Deerfield, Pierceville, Charleston, Ryus, Big Bow, Plymell
and Hickok.

LAT...LON 3742 10078 3746 10186 3820 10135 3814 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 230DEG 27KT 3782 10113

HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 1:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

KSZ062>064-076>078-170745-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Kearny KS-Haskell KS-Ford KS-
155 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
KEARNY...FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...GRAY
AND HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Plymell, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Cimarron, Holcomb, Montezuma, Pierceville, Copeland,
Ingalls, Ensign, Charleston, Howell, Plymell, Kalvesta and The
Haggard Elev.

LAT...LON 3774 10109 3774 10112 3824 10093 3814 9997
      3754 10029 3752 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 222DEG 36KT 3771 10076

HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 2:34 AM CDT, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

KSZ044-045-063-064-077-078-170815-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-Ford KS-
234 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD...NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
WESTERN NESS...HODGEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN LANE AND GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Ingalls, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Cimarron, Ness City, Montezuma, Jetmore, Spearville,
Ingalls, Ford, Hanston, Ensign, Charleston, Howell, Wright, Kalvesta,
The Haggard Elev and Ft. Dodge.

LAT...LON 3758 9968 3758 10059 3823 10064 3861 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 216DEG 32KT 3772 10044

HOVORKA
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:05 AM CDT, 7 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 11:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCMorton40 min
Jul 16, 11:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCGrant39 min
Jul 17, 12:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCMorton, Stevens30 min
Jul 17, 12:25 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCGrant, Stevens65 min
Jul 17, 12:48 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCFinney, Kearny42 min
Jul 17, 1:21 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCFinney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny39 min
Jul 17, 1:55 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCFinney, Gray, Haskell50 min
Jul 17, 2:34 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCFord, Gray, Hodgeman, Ness41 min
Jul 17, 3:05 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCEdwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Ness40 min
Jul 17, 3:39 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCEdwards, Pawnee, Stafford51 min
Jul 17, 4:36 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCStafford24 min

Nearby

Heat Advisories in Kansas, 2020Every heat advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.