Snow Squall Warning 19, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
436 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

Currently, a large but broad upper level trough sits over and to
the north of the CWA with primarily westerly flow overhead with
multiple shortwaves passing through. Scattered cloud cover sits
along and west of the Laramie Range with embedded snow showers
along with southwesterly upslope flow over the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Range resulting in light snowfall. Recent SNOTEL
observations report around 0.2-0.3" SWE over the past 12 hours and
should continue tonight with the passing system. A cold front
currently positioned over northeast Wyoming will sweep south
through the Nebraska Panhandle this evening with northerly winds
and slightly cooler temperatures. Additional forcing from the
front along with upslope flow along the Pine Ridge will support
snowfall tonight across Converse and Niobrara Counties in Wyoming
and over towards Chadron and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.
Light accumulations are expected around 1" or less.

Winds will begin to increase early Thursday morning near
Arlington as stronger flow around 45 kts sets in aloft at 700 mb.
12z GFS CAG-CPR height gradients for Thursday morning have
relaxed a little from previous guidance, though are still expected
to reach 50 meters. Gradients off of the latest NAM are weaker
along with upper level winds. A brief period of wind gusts
approaching 60 MPH is possible near the Arlington/Elk Mountain
area early Thursday morning, however confidence is not high
enough at the moment for an upgrade. Regardless, expecting
Thursday and Friday to be windy, especially along and west of the
Laramie Range, with weak passing impulses before a much bigger
wind threat moves into the area this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

Main concern this period will be with a strong wind event that
should continue to affect at least parts of the CWA Saturday with
700H flow progged to be over 60 kts over much of the CWA. Downward
omega also spreads east of the mtns into se Wy and the southern
Neb Panhandle during the day while a deep surface low moves across
the Dakotas. Likely will need wind highlights especially in wind
prone areas as well as into at least the high plains. Winds should
ease Saturday night as the pressure gradient lessens but still looking
pretty breezy Sunday under fast nwly flow. Mainly dry through the
period over the plains but periodic snow showers expected over
and near the higher mtns Saturday and Sunday aided by orographics.
Pacific front moves across Saturday night resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday. Early next week should see some warming with
continued breeziness.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

Wyoming TAFS...VFR, with occasional IFR in snow at Rawlins and
Laramie until 02Z. Wind gusts to 35 knots.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Chadron and Alliance from
05Z to 15Z. Wind gusts to 24 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney after
15Z Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

A fast-moving and progressive pattern will keep wind in the
forecast each day. These windy conditions will be paired with
light mountain snow, but in most cases, dry conditions and periods
of Haines 5 otherwise. Today marks the day the region will see
widespread min humidities in the 20s across the High Plains, with
teens expected along the Colorado border Thursday. This looks to
remain the pattern for the foreseeable future, with areas west
dropping from min humidities in the 40s and 50s to 30s at the
beginning of next week. Therefore, even as we enter into mid-
November, elevated fire weather conditions continue to exist.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Thursday through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ110.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...AB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
223 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>109-111>119-122130-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
223 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Breezy conditions with isolated snow showers through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Widespread very strong winds are possible Friday night and Saturday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

WYZ110-122130-
North Snowy Range Foothills-
223 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Breezy conditions with isolated snow showers this through evening.

High Wind Watch in place tonight through Thursday afternoon for
the I-80 corridor Arlington to Elk Mountain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Widespread very strong winds are possible Friday night and Saturday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
429 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

WYZ110-115>119-120130-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
Including the cities of Arlington, Elk Mountain, Bosler, Laramie,
Buford, Pumpkin Vine, Vedauwoo, Whitaker, Federal, Horse Creek,
Cheyenne, and Pine Bluffs
429 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020

Narrow bands of snow showers will move east across southeast
Wyoming, impacting the Interstate 80 corridor from near Arlington
through Laramie and Cheyenne. Brief visibility restrictions between
a half mile and a mile in moderate snowfall along with gusty winds
to 30 mph will accompany these showers.

Motorists should be alert for slick, snow covered roadways and lower
visibilities in blowing and falling snow. Reduce speeds and allow
extra travel time.