Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Cheyenne, WY

035 
WWUS55 KCYS 192340
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEC007-157-200015-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-200720T0015Z/
Scotts Bluff NE-Banner NE-
540 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF AND NORTH CENTRAL BANNER COUNTIES...

At 539 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wildcat Hills
State Recreation Area, or 7 miles south of Scottsbluff, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Minatare, Wildcat Hills State
Recreation Area, Scottsbluff Airport, Wildcat Hills Campground,
Scotts Bluff National Monument, Melbeta and McGrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

LAT...LON 4165 10382 4197 10379 4190 10336 4176 10336
      4162 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 208DEG 22KT 4176 10368 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hammer

490 
WWUS55 KCYS 192347
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
547 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEC007-192357-
/O.CAN.KCYS.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-200720T0015Z/
Banner NE-
547 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BANNER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4170 10374 4195 10368 4190 10336 4176 10336
      4170 10346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 209DEG 21KT 4179 10363 

$$

NEC157-200015-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-200720T0015Z/
Scotts Bluff NE-
547 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY...

At 547 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gering, or near
Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Minatare, Wildcat Hills State
Recreation Area, Scottsbluff Airport, Wildcat Hills Campground,
Scotts Bluff National Monument, Melbeta and McGrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

LAT...LON 4170 10374 4195 10368 4190 10336 4176 10336
      4170 10346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 209DEG 21KT 4179 10363 

HAIL...3.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hammer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
155 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon - Tuesday Night)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across areas mainly along/east of the Laramie Range by mid to late
afternoon. Significant uncertainty exists with storm coverage over
the next several hours, mainly because of weak large scale forcing
with the primary mechanism being a stationary front draped from N-
S along the Laramie Range. Cumulus development has been limited so
far per afternoon visible satellite imagery, but excellent low-lvl
moisture transport is occurring with moist southeasterly flow over
the Platte River Valley contributing to dew points approaching 65F
at Torrington & Scottsbluff. We are likely a bit delayed for CI as
low-level cloud cover stuck around over the Neb Panhandle into the
late morning hours, but would expect initiation to occur by 21z as
convective temperatures are reached. The main area of interest may
be the central Laramie Range into the Platte River Valley with the
help of enhanced low-level convergence associated w/ the Chugwater
cyclone. Further south toward the CO border, a dryline bulge takes
shape just south of the surface low which may be another focus for
initiation in the next few hours. Any storms that develop over the
next few hours will be capable of all modes of severe weather. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows upwards of 2500 J/kg SBCAPEs in the warm sector
with 30+ knots of effective bulk shear. CAPEs also approach 800 J/
kg in the -10 to -30 deg C layer, further supporting potential for
large hail especially w/ any supercell structures. Backed near-sfc
flow is also contributing to curved low-level hodographs, possibly
supporting isolated tornado potential given fairly low LCLs around
1250 meters. This threat would be enhanced with any cell splits or
right movers. Storms may merge into one more linear complexes this
evening into late tonight as the low-level jet strengthens.

Daily chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist along/
east of the Laramie Range each afternoon through Tuesday given the
stationary boundary remaining in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday - Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Upper level ridging still looks to be on track for the remainder
of the week from Wednesday onward. Model guidance still showing
agreement with warm air advection continually making the area warm
with southwest flow in the lower levels creating daytime maximum
700mb temps 14C-18C. While atmospheric ridging aloft continues
over the region, that certainly won't discount the opportunity for
moisture to be on slightly elevated over the area. Split flow at
the H5 and H3 levels show a cut off low near the California
coastline and more impressive height falls to the Pacific
Northwest associated with a upper level trough. The split flow
regime will continue from Wednesday to the weekend, allowing the
best energy to stay further to the north based off medium to long
range guidance. However, with the cut off low slowly propagating
to the east and northeast aloft, it will eventually be absorbed
into a more defined upper level trough at the 300mb level by 0Z
Saturday. With diffluent flow aloft, the possibility of
thunderstorm activity on the increase would need additional
surface moisture plumes from the continental region of Mexico,
Pacific Ocean moisture, and/or the Gulf of Mexico. Surface
convergence and instability look plausible from the model
guidance, however the most recent models are showing a slightly
more eastward surface High compared to the previous day. If our
area is to receive much needed rainfall across the region, this
more eastward track of the surface High pressure across the
central CONUS is a less favorable trend for our CWA in regard to
rainfall. Overall, monsoon flow will begin to approach the area
towards the end of the week, but we are not in the most favorable
pattern for continued impulses of moisture. This is represent with
PoPs up to 40 percent in the extended forecast package as of this
time. With the upper level ridging staying put, we can expect
temperatures to be warm the next week or so, with little relief of
cooler temperatures on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Latest GOES-E satellite shows a swath of MVFR CIGS from Cheyenne
County northward across the NE Panhandle. Should see continued
diminishment over the early afternoon hours. This afternoon will
see isolated showers and thunderstorms, some severe from KCYS
eastward with development from the south to the north as the
afternoon and evening progress. Overnight period will see low CIGS
and VIS return to the NE Panhandle so continued downward trend in
conditions though depending on how late convection continues into
the overnight, the deterioration of conditions may be delayed for
some sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Stationary front lays along a line from Riverton to Rawlins to
Craig Colorado this morning. The front will meander a little to
the east today to near the Laramie Range this afternoon. East of
the front...east to southeast upslope winds will keep humidity
high and provide chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. West of the front...drier and breezier conditions
will exist over the next several days. Monsoonal moisture will
interact with the front for good chances of wetting rains from the
Laramie Range east into the Panhandle through the upcoming week.
Fire weather concerns expected to be minimal.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
527 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
201130-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill-
Kimball County-Cheyenne-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
527 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...western Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the high plains this afternoon, possibly merging into one
or more clusters of storms tonight. A few storms may be severe,
with large hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH
the primary hazards. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected
east of the Laramie Range this upcoming week. Some of the storms
could become severe with large hail...damaging downburst winds and
heavy rainfall.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed first along the Interstate 25
Corridor after 2 PM. Spotter activation may be needed for the
Nebraska Panhandle from 4 PM through 7 PM this evening.

WYZ103>106-109>117-201130-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
527 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
321 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ054-WYZ119-192200-
Kimball NE-East Laramie County WY-
321 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KIMBALL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LARAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 321 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carpenter, or 27 miles east of Cheyenne, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluffs, Burns, Oliver Campground, Oliver Reservoir, Panorama
Point, Carpenter and Bushnell.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 386 and 402.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4118 10436 4139 10402 4138 10383 4130 10372
      4100 10370 4100 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 269DEG 19KT 4110 10427

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
417 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ054-192300-
Kimball NE-
417 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN KIMBALL COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Oliver Reservoir, or 13 miles southwest of Kimball,
moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Kimball
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4115 10392 4122 10339 4100 10339 4100 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 266DEG 17KT 4107 10381

Hammer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
421 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             15 S BUSHNELL           41.01N 103.89W
07/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            49 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED AT 335 PM.

&&

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
449 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             2 E KIMBALL             41.23N 103.62W
07/19/2020  M1.00 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT FOUR WINDS
            COUNTRY CLUB ON THE EAST SIDE OF KIMBALL.
            TIME ESTIMATED OFF OF RADAR.

&&

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