Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across most of central PA
into the evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the
greatest risk of flash flooding in the lower Susquehanna Valley.
The overall coverage and probability of showers and storms will
trend lower (drier) through the weekend with temperatures
climbing 5 to 10 degrees above average into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Highly congested, deep convection is on-going across the SErn
half of the area with sct SHRA and isold TSRA in the NW. Weak
flow and high PWATs, low stability are going to keep the threat
of flash flooding going for most of the prev FFA area. However,
it appears that the main cause for worry is now off to the east
of a few of the counties. Have trimmed off anywhere west of the
current mass of thick moisture. Sever threat also looks like it
is diminishing with time, but some clearing is occurring over
the central and western counties and additional chcs for TSRA
are there for much of the area. Will keep the mention of
marginally severe storms in for the east for the time being.

Main shove of forcing seems to be right overhead the office
right now. Expect all the storms to move east with time. By
later this evening, the convection should be off to the east of
the CWA. Only a tiny chc of a SHRA is possible in the east
through the night. Partial to full clearing is expected for
only a short while. Then, fog and stratus will likely form
tonight as temps cool. Have mentioned fog across all the area
tonight. It may become dense. Set up is favorable with some
clearing after heavy rain. The light wind won't help dry things
out, either. Mins are likely to stay higher than climo due to
the llvl moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build down from the north and provide a nice
weekend. It will get warmer After a foggy start, there will be
cu across much of the area, but they should not grow too tall.
Will leave in a small chc of SHRA over the east, mainly, as
stability does fall through the day. But, 90pct of the area
should remain dry on Sat. Maxes will be much higher than Fri
with much more sun and a light W wind. Nighttime decoupling may
lead to another foggy night, as dewpoints don't drop all that
much during the day, esp in the SE where they could hang in the
u60s. Mins will be very similar, as well. Just the far NW will
get cooler, and fog is likely in the valleys up that-a-way.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair weather should prevail on Sunday, and likely for Monday,
too. Temps will get warmer each day, rising well above normals.

Flat flow or even a very slight ridging overhead to start the
period will be followed by a minor trough and attendant front
for mid-week. The front then hangs around for the rest of the
week. This spells a repetitious forecast for that period. Daily
SHRA/TSRA.

Heat Index values take a run at the upper 90s in the Lower
Susq. Continued to stay a little conservative for afternoon
dewpoints vs NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18z update... Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous
this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of KMDT and KLNS,
where the most persistent restrictions are anticipated.

Although showers/storms could briefly impact other central PA
terminal sites, they would be short-lived if they occurred,
with mostly VFR foreseen.

Tonight, we anticipate widespread low stratus clouds and areas
of fog to form, especially after 03-06z. IFR conditions are
probable at all terminal sites for at least several hours.

Saturday, low clouds and fog are expected to lift by 13-15z,
with VFR thereafter.

E-SE surface winds of 5-8 kt are expected this afternoon at KMDT
and KLNS, with variable 5 kt or less elsewhere. Winds will be
light overnight, then turn W-NW by midday Saturday at 5-8 kt.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR. Patchy low clouds and fog possible early
in the morning.

Tue-Wed...Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms,
along with associated restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ027-028-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Jurewicz

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