Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot summertime pattern will continue for this entire week
with humid conditions, above normal temperatures and scattered
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Abundant sunshine will combine with moderate to high sfc
dewpoints and mixed layer moisture to produce isolated to
scattered strong to svr pulse TSRA with very slow east to
SEwrd drift and some backbuilding that could produce a quick
0.75 to 1.00 inch of rain,mainly across our eastern zones.

The greatest concentration will be across our Far SE zones,
particularly Lancaster County between 22-01Z (per the latest
several runs of the HRRR) where outflow from the nearly
stationary MCS over the greater Philly area will push westward
should grow upscale to additional multicell clusters or even
another small MCS. Also, meso-analysis data for our SE zones
shows 3500-4000 J/KG of sfc-based cape in that same area, where
interaction of the Chesapeake Bay breeze boundary will help to
initiate and focus convection.

Heat indices across the SE zones are in the M-U90s attm, with
one or two spots hitting 100-101F. However, the rapidly deepening
mixed layer helped to transport some drier air to the sfc and
knocked down dewpoints by 5-7 deg F with locally higher dewpoint
drops seen across the Western Mtns of PA.

Severe TSRA Watch remains in effect until 03Z Tuesday for 6
counties in our eastern CWA.

WPC has a MRGL risk ERO over southeast PA to account for the
potential of  merging cells and/or some locally repeating
thunderstorms that could lead to a quick multi-inch rain event
in a few spots.

Max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s will run 5 to 15 degrees
above daily climo. Storms will fade and shift south/east late
tonight with fog developing into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Persistent hot summertime pattern sizzles on through midweek
with high temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. The chance for
afternoon and evening showers/storms will go up to 40% Tue as an
area of unsettled weather moves out of the Ohio valley ahead of
a weak upper level trough. Shear will be weak, but CAPE in
excess of 1000 J/kg should support isolated to scattered storms.

The upper trough will not have cleared the area by Wed, so
another round of scattered afternoon showers/storms is likely
Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hot weather will continue through the end of the week with
temperatures peaking right around 90 Thu and Fri.

After the weak trough moves east into the Canadian Maritimes
Wed night, a ridge of high pressure will develop over the
northeast on Thu, bringing drier weather and sunnier skies.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop beneath the
ridge near the North Carolina coast. This low will likely turn
winds out of the SE and E for Fri, bringing an increase in
humidity.

The weekend looks unsettled as an upper trough digs over the
eastern US and interacts with the coastal low. Cooler temps
aloft and plenty of clouds should bring a period of relief to
the heat, with afternoon highs just a couple degrees above
average. Meanwhile, the 500 mb ridge over the desert Southwest
will continue to build to near 600 dam by Sat. Heat from this
ridge looks to spill back into our area by Wed of next week
after the eastern trough moves offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At 00z, scattered showers and storms continue to impact mainly
the Lower Susq Valley /near MDT and LNS/. This activity should
gradually dissipate after sunset.

Overnight, a weak backdoor cold front should bring some low
clouds from east to west into the Susq Valley. Lowering cigs
and/or patchy fog could lead to MVFR conditions for all central
PA airfields, with the exception of JST, by daybreak Monday.
IPT appears most likely to dip to IFR, but MDT and LNS may also
come close.

Conds should improve to VFR by late morning as low clouds lift
and patchy fog dissipates. However, another round of convection
is expected to develop during the afternoon hours that could
lead to brief, localized reductions.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Reductions possible in patchy AM fog/low cigs and
scattered PM SHRA/TSRA.

Thu...Generally VFR.

Fri-Sat...Reductions possible in scattered SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A sustained period of above-average temperatures is expected
over the next 7 to 10 days. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more
days with temperatures greater than or equal to 90 degrees. Here
are some facts about previous heat waves from Harrisburg (MDT)
Williamsport (IPT), and State College (STC), which have climate
periods of record dating back to the late 1800s.

Recent high temperatures:
	 	7/2		7/3		7/4		7/5		Current 90 degree streak
IPT:	95		95		91		93			4 days
MDT:	93		97		94		96			4 days
STC:	89		90		88		89			0 days

Longest stretch of consecutive 90 degree days:
IPT: 15 (July 4 - July 18, 1988)
MDT: 11 (5 times, most recently July 22 - August 1, 1999)
STC: 15 (July 4 - July 18, 1988)

Annual occurrences of 90 degree days:
 Average Most (Year) Least (Year) 2020 (thru 7/5)
IPT: 16   42(1988)    0 (1979)           5
MDT: 20   60(1966)    3 (2004)           6
STC: 8    35(1988)    0 (11 times)       2*
*Highs at STC are officially reported the next morning, whereas
the others are reported at midnight.

How common are stretches of 5 or more consecutive 90 degree days?
IPT: 15 times since 2000 (12 of 20 years)
MDT: 19 times since 2000 (12 of 20 years)*
STC:  4 times since 2000 ( 4 of 20 years)

*MDT had a stretch of 10 straight 90 degree days from July 3 -
 July 12, 2012. If highs on Saturday and Sunday can hit 90
 degrees, we could make a run at 10 straight days exactly 8
 years later.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Lambert/Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

PAZ004-024-033-071815-
Warren-Cambria-Somerset-
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-025>027-034-035-037-041-042-045-071815-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Bedford-
Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds
are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ057>059-064>066-071815-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition...There will be an increased risk of heat-related
illnesses this afternoon due to a combination of hot temperatures
and high humidity. The heat index will top out between 95 and 99
degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056-063-071815-
Juniata-Franklin-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Cumberland-
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds
are possible this afternoon and evening.

There will be an increased risk of heat-related illnesses this
afternoon due to a combination of hot temperatures and high
humidity. The heat index will top out between 94 and 99 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

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