Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS State College, PA

873 
WWUS51 KCTP 260028
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
828 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAC009-055-057-061-260100-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-200626T0100Z/
Bedford PA-Huntingdon PA-Franklin PA-Fulton PA-
828 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON...CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

At 825 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located just southeast of 
Dudley, moving southeast at 30 mph. This storm has a history of 
damaging winds.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         trees, roofs, and siding.

Locations impacted include...
New Enterprise, Waterfall, Wells Tannery, Fort Littleton, Dudley, Shy
Beaver, Willow Hill, Sideling Hill Rest Area, Fannettsburg, Saxton,
Broad Top City, Three Springs, Saltillo, Woodbury, Defiance,
Hopewell, Coalmont and Shade Gap.

This includes The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 171 to 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4017 7841 4026 7833 4025 7830 4025 7828
      4033 7823 4018 7770 3993 7784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 293DEG 25KT 4017 7813 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Martin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fade this evening.
Expect plenty of sunshine on Friday with seasonal temperatures.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely into Saturday with the
strongest storms in the afternoon capable of damaging winds and
heavy downpours. Conditions should trend drier during the
second half of the weekend through early next week. Temperatures
will remain near to above average heading into July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue into the early
evening. Storms will pose some risk for isolated strong wind
gusts and marginally severe hail but should generally remain
below severe limits.

Cooling of the boundary layer should cause any showers/storms
to diminish this evening, then expect fair and seasonable
conditions the rest of the night. A calm wind associated with
surface ridge is likely to result in patchy late night fog again
in the deep river/stream valleys of northern Pa, or in those
locations that receive rain late today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Most areas will see plenty of sunshine and dry wx on Friday.
However, latest HREF suggests a brief/spotty shower cannot be
ruled out. Will keep continuity and leave out mention of showers
in the forecast with the balance of the day expected to be dry
in most areas. Seasonable temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

An approaching warm front will spread increasing clouds into the
region Friday night, with late night-early AM showers/storms
possible across primarily the northern half of Pa. Early
showers/t-storms are likely to taper off by late morning, as
nose of low level jet shifts into NY state.

As surface low tracks across southern Ontario, diurnal heating
in warm sector is likely to result in an uptick in afternoon
thunderstorms along weak cool front across CPA. Blend of model
guidance continues to indicate moderately strong west-
southwesterly flow aloft to support a risk of scattered severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. SPC introduced a Slight
risk (level 2 of 5) earlier this morning with the D3 outlook,
with the next (D2) update scheduled for early Friday morning.
Cloud cover could potentially limit destablization and suppress
convection across the northwest mountains, with the greatest
risk of strong to severe storms most likely across the south
central 2/3 of CPA.

Waves of convection are possible later Friday into early Friday
night with storms moving along the aforementioned boundary.
There is the potential for some training as flow becomes
parallel to the front especially into western/southwest PA. WPC
introduced a MRGL risk (level 1 out of 4) of isolated flooding
which includes parts of the western Alleghenies, where model
guidance signals the highest areal QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance continues to forecast an upper
trough/closed low settling into the Northeast U.S. Sunday into
the middle of next week. The first half of the period shows
good agreement on this set up, though typical timing/intensity
and run to run inconsistencies begin to develop by the end of
the period.

A cold front should get pushed to the south of the PA/MD line on
by Monday as the upper trough/closed low drops southeast from
Quebec. This front should be a focus for scattered showers and
T-storms mainly across the southern tier of CPA on Sunday. A
relative minimum in PWATs downstream of anomalous upper ridge
building over central Canada near Hudson Bay should favor a
mainly dry forecast through early next week before some diurnal
convection begins to creep back into the forecast by the end of
the period. Temperatures should average near to above average
heading into July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFS sent.

More active with storms than I expected when I left last
evening. Main storm just northwest of the office now.

Anyway, adjusted 00Z TAFS for the current activity.

Still not looking at widespread fog tonight. Will continue
to monitor the situation.

Earlier discussion below.

Scattered showers/storms will fade by later this evening.

Expect mainly VFR conditions with patchy fog/low cigs possible
overnight into early Friday morning.

Outlook...

Sat...Afternoon showers/sctd tsra with local reductions in cigs
and vsbys mainly across the NW half of PA.

Sun...Still a chance of showers and storms.

Mon...A chance of showers and storms, mainly south.

Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
348 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-262000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
348 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the early evening hours.
Some storms will contain brief gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible in a few spots
Saturday, mainly during the afternoon or evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
704 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAZ024-025-252330-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-
704 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BLAIR AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 704 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Portage, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portage, Cresson, Gallitzin, Lilly, Spring Hill, Tunnelhill, Wilmore,
Cassandra, Allegheny Portage Railroad National Historic Site and Mt.
Aloysius College.

LAT...LON 4037 7873 4043 7874 4050 7845 4034 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 264DEG 21KT 4041 7868

Dangelo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW DUBOIS            41.13N 78.78W
06/25/2020                   CLEARFIELD         PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HILL ST.

&&

SDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW DUBOIS            41.13N 78.78W
06/25/2020                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON HILL ST.

&&

SDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
726 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAZ012-041-260000-
Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
726 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RURAL PARTS OF CLINTON
AND LYCOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Hyner, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Slate Run and Cammal.

LAT...LON 4134 7761 4139 7764 4151 7748 4136 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 14KT 4138 7759

Dangelo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAZ018-260000-
Northern Centre PA-
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Clarence, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Snow Shoe, Clarence, Moshannon, Pine Glen and Orviston.

LAT...LON 4113 7777 4109 7773 4103 7775 4099 7808
      4101 7806 4102 7807 4105 7806 4105 7807
      4114 7804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 262DEG 29KT 4107 7798

Dangelo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
755 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

PAZ025-026-034-035-260045-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-
755 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD...HUNTINGDON...
FULTON...AND BLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 754 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Martinsburg, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roaring Spring, New Enterprise, Martinsburg, Claysburg, Waterfall,
Wells Tannery, Dudley, Shy Beaver, Sideling Hill Rest Area, Saxton,
Broad Top City, Three Springs, Saltillo, Woodbury, Defiance,
Hopewell, Cassville, Coalmont and Altoona-Blair County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 7850 4035 7843 4028 7792 4002 7802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 286DEG 18KT 4025 7838

Martin