Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1227 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are on tap again today, and cloud
cover may keep it much cooler than the past few days. Rain is
again likely on Saturday, as the remnants of Laura track just
south of Pennsylvania. Some of the rainfall could be on the
heavy side. A cooler and drier/less humid airmass will prevail
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convection ramping up early today with severe and FF threats
evolving east-southeast across south central PA. CAMs are
bullish in upstream storm clusters located just over wrn PA
just south of I-80 at 15Z to become more widespread as they
encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass. Vis sat loop shows
cloud cover which may be a limiting factor for storm
intensification across the Laurels into the southern
Alleghenies.

A severe thunderstorm watch is possible (60% probability) for
southeast PA and perhaps adjacent parts of central PA and
MD/DE/NJ. A Slight Risk will likely be included for remaining
portions of south central PA in the upcoming 1630z convective
outlook.

Some convective training appears likely based on radar trends
with rainfall rates 1-2 inch per hour. FFG is very high to the
east of the Allegheny Front owing to ongoing moderate drought
conditions, but parts of the Laurel Highlands are most
vulnerable to potential flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
There may be a short lull in the convection tonight, but the
latest 06Z NAM generates more storms through the night. Any
break won't be long as a cold front will approach right as the
remnant low of Laura rolls by just to our south. The shear
increases significantly from Friday as the long-wave trough
swings down from central Canada. The attendant front will pass
through the NW in the morning, and we may not have ample time
to brew up sufficient instability to get things firing on all
cylinders there. But, SPC has the SErn counties in a SLGT risk
for Sat, and MRGL for most of the rest of the area. Expect more
heavy rain from some of the storms, but they should be moving
with some steam. After a few days of rain, the soil may be less
able to soak in the rain, and minor flooding is again possible.
The convection should be off to the east in the early evening,
and leave a quiet rest of the weekend as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain will move out of the region Saturday night with conditions
drying out into Sunday. Behind the front and Laura, much cooler
air will move into the region into next week. Expect high temps
to be more in the 70s and lower 80s with low humidity through
early next week.

High pressure will lead to generally dry weather Sunday and
Monday, although it may be cool enough aloft on Sunday for some
lake effect rain showers to form off of Lake Erie which could
move into the northern tier of PA. High pressure will drift
eastward Monday with southerly flow developing across the
region. This flow will bring an uptick in moisture for Tuesday
and Wednesday leading to the chance for showers or thunderstorms
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few storms still lingering in SW PA will affect JST and AOO
through 08z. Then low clouds and some fog will develop over
mainly the NW half of CWA overnight, bringing restrictions that
will linger well into Fri morning over the NW Mtns.

More showers likely to develop across the west late Friday
morning, with showers/scattered tstms working eastward later in
the day.

A wet day expected on Saturday, as a strong cold front nears.

Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs possible wrn highlands. Sct PM tsra impacts.

Sat...Widespread showers and reductions are expected.

Sun-Tue...Generally VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Summer 2020 is on track for the warmest on record at Harrisburg
with an average temperature of 78.1F month-to-date.

August 2020 currently ranks 2nd warmest on record with an
average temperature of 78.7F. 2016 holds the top spot coming in
at 79.1F.

Harrisburg has reached 90 degrees or higher 35 times since June
1st, including 1 day at 100F.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Travis
AVIATION...RXR/Banghoff
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
419 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

PAZ006-012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-063-064-
290830-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-
419 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are possible, mainly late this morning and this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are possible on Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-018-024-025-033-034-290830-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Somerset-Bedford-
419 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible today. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ057>059-065-066-290830-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
419 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, small hail, and
locally heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon and early this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible on Saturday,
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
814 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE SHUNK             41.55N 76.73W
08/27/2020                   SULLIVAN           PA   PUBLIC

            10-15 TREES DOWN EAST OF SHUNK.

&&

SDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

PAZ017-281545-
Clearfield-
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD
COUNTY...

At 1059 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Punxsutawney,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curwensville, Irvona, Coalport, Westover, Mahaffey, Grampian,
Troutville, Burnside, Glen Hope, Lumber City and New Washington.

LAT...LON 4103 7880 4095 7840 4072 7851 4072 7878
      4073 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 290DEG 32KT 4095 7901

Steinbugl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     LIGHTNING        1 NE DUBOIS             41.13N 78.74W
08/28/2020                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING STRIKE CAUGHT HOUSE ON FIRE ON
            NATHAN COURT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1228 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

PAZ033-034-281715-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
1228 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles west of Berlin to near Meyersdale.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meyersdale, Berlin, Hyndman, Salisbury, Ellerslie, Garrett,
Wellersburg, New Baltimore and Callimont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7908 3978 7911 3983 7908 3992 7911
      4000 7869 3972 7870 3972 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 261DEG 19KT 3989 7906 3974 7907

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1240 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

PAZ018-019-025-026-281745-
Northern Centre PA-Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-Southern Centre PA-
1240 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...CENTRE...
AND BLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Bald Eagle, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg, Stormstown, Lemont,
Bald Eagle, Houserville, Warriors Mark, Pine Grove Mills, Ramblewood,
Port Matilda, Sandy Ridge, Whipple Dam State Park, Rock Springs,
Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania Military Museum and
University Park Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding of poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7831 4077 7834 4082 7828 4086 7776
      4065 7777
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 271DEG 16KT 4075 7823

Lambert