Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will be
possible over southern PA into early this evening. Additional
strong to severe storms could occur late Wednesday into
Wednesday night and again on Thursday. Rounds of showers and
storms are likely from late week into the last weekend in August
with moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Laura
forecast to track to the south of Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All kinds of interesting things going on in the mesoscale right
now. None of them are seemingly good for convection here in
Central PA. SPC SVR Watch #449 runs thru 9PM, but the speed of
the current storms which are along the first boundary will be
gone well before then. Anticipate trimming off some of the nrn
tier here very shortly. Current storms are really in the CAPE-
poor region and will just start to emerge into the sunny-CAPE-
rich environment south of AOO-UNV-IPT. Lack of deep convection
over the NE is not surprising as they have strong shear there,
but lower CAPE. A boundary, perhaps laid down by the morning svr
convection, is where the current strongest storms over PBZ's
area exist. These should move into the Laurels, but will meet
with perhaps the same fate as the earlier storms. Maybe not as
much CAPE due to lower dewpoints over the Laurels. Current
thinking is that >50pct of the CWA is going to get by without
much worry as the strongest storms have already pushed thru that
much of the CWA.

Everything but a stray shower or two will be off to the south by
6 or 7PM. The rest of the night will feature drying and
northerly wind. There could be some lower clouds pile up along
the western hills. Enough mixing/drying should occur before
sunset so that not much fog will occur outside the nrn valleys
where it will get cool enough (m50s) to generate the typical
valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Much, if not all, of Wed should be dry across the CWA. Dry air
supplied by a N-S sfc ridge axis floating overhead. The quick
return flow over the OH valley will help the lingering boundary
which will lie just to our SW to bubble back up, but not get
near us until the evening. There could still be a stray TSRA
along our wrn border, though, in the aftn. Temps will recover
into the m70s-m80s, which are still above normal for the date.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Above normal temperatures and a jump in dewpoints/PWAT are
expected to return by Thursday, as the boundary pushes northeast
as a warm front. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible especially across the northern part of CPA during the
day. SPC has a SLGT risk for Thursday/D3 across the northern two
thirds of central PA. South of the front will be quite hot and
humid with highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the lower
70s.

The front will then sag south once again on Friday as the
remnants from Tropical Storm Laura usher deep moisture through
the Ohio Valley and into Pennsylvania. There is still
considerable uncertainty on the southward extent of the front
and propagation speed of Laura. A faster cold front will keep
Laura's moisture suppressed to the south. A faster Laura could
bring more significant moisture into PA, perhaps providing a
reprieve from drought conditions. GEFS and ECENS guidance keeps
the heaviest rainfall west of the Allegheny front, but with
ample uncertainty in Laura's track over the next several days,
changes are a guarantee. Behind the front and Laura, much cooler
air will move into the region late this weekend and into next
week. Expect high temps to be more in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Advance sfc trough ahead of main push of dry air (the real
front) is making strong TSRA over wrn PA, but not much yet over
the east. Some will fire up as the trough gets into the less
stable air just to the south of UNV-SEG. That should happen any
minute. Gusty W wind will continue until the real dry air moves
in, and then veer to the N. But, most of the rest of the night
will be quiet after any storms pass through your locality in
the next 3 hours. Some lower clouds could build along the wrn
high terrain (BFD/JST), but have not included them yet due to
the dryness of the airmass which will spread south into PA in
the next few hours, as well. Also not mentioning much fog, as
most places will have mixing and plenty of drying time before
sunset. The nrn valleys (typical places) will probably git a
little fog as it gets cold there tonight.

High pressure building into the region will bring fair weather
and a diminishing breeze tonight.

Outlook...

Wed...AM valley fog possible W Mtns.

Thu...Scattered tsra impacts possible.

Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts
possible.

Sat...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. PM tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner
AVIATION...Dangelo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ACOSTA              40.11N 79.12W
08/25/2020                   SOMERSET           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 4
            W ACOSTA. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT MAGGIE RD
            AND KEYSERTOWN RD.

&&

COLBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

PAZ025-251900-
Blair PA-
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Lakemont, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Hollidaysburg, Martinsburg, Lakemont, Williamsburg,
Duncansville, Horseshoe Curve, Canoe Creek State Park, Royer, Newry,
Peoples Natural Gas Field, Lakemont Park And Island Waterpark and
Altoona-Blair County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 7851 4052 7853 4053 7851 4054 7850
      4054 7841 4046 7815 4042 7817 4027 7828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 303DEG 29KT 4046 7840

Colbert