River Flood Warning 6, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
242 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger through Friday before conditions dry out on
Saturday. Expect near seasonal temperatures for the first
weekend of May before the cooler temperature trend resumes next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Deep moisture has shifted east of the region this morning, but
still dealing with a few light showers associated with jet
streak entrance region over the Susq Valley. RAP indicates this
feature and associated showers will shift east of the forecast
area by dawn. Across the Laurel Highlands, nearly saturated
model soundings between 0-1km, combined with upslope flow, is
likely to yield some spotty drizzle during the predawn hours.
Elsewhere, have removed mention of precipitation through sunrise.

Partial clearing, wet ground and a calm wind has resulted in fog
at KBFD early this morning. Latest NAMNest and SREF probs target
the northwest mountains for patchy fog through around 12Z, while
a light breeze likely precludes fog formation elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The passage of upper trough, combined with diurnal heating,
will result in scattered instability showers developing this
afternoon. Have placed the highest POPs and a chance of thunder
over the eastern edge of the forecast area, where upper trough
will be tracking during max heating of the afternoon.
Unimpressive pwats should result in light rainfall amounts and
not exacerbate ongoing river flooding over the Susq Valley.

Instability resulting from chilly air aloft will cause morning
breaks in the cloud cover to fill in later today, holding
temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief period of drier weather begins Fri night as showers
retreat off to the NE. Saturday looks like a pleasant day with
gradually moderating temperatures.

Weak surface low slides through Sat night into Sunday bringing
some light rain to mainly SW portions. Thick clouds will take a
little of the luster off of a rare near/slightly above normal
day, but it will still likely top out as the warmest day we've
had around here in a few weeks.

Persistent trough over the eastern U.S. keep a series of waves
parading through during the week keeping below normal
temperatures in place. Mon/Tue look generally dry and breezy
before showers return for mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main hazard during the overnight will be patchy fog, especially
in NW PA, where more widespread areas of fog may develop. BFD
vis fell under 1 SM just before 06z Fri. Fog will likely linger
through 11z.

Outside of areas of fog, conditions generally improving from
MVFR to VFR through the predawn as the low level cloud deck
becomes broken and -SHRA over lower Susq tapers off.

As an upper level low moves overhead during the day Fri, W-NW
upslope flow will maintain MVFR cigs through much of the day for
western airfields. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to be VFR.
Isolated afternoon -SHRA/TSRA may develop, mainly east of the
Alleghenies, tapering off Fri evening.

BFD/JST should improve to VFR or high-end MVFR by around 00z
Sat as drier air works in behind the departing low pressure.
There is some potential for patchy fog again Fri night, although
winds may be a limiting factor. High clouds from the next
approaching system will move in Fri night.

Outlook...

Sat...No sig wx expected.

Sun...Scattered showers possible, especially later in the day.

Mon...Still a chance of showers.

Tue...Dry with mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts will occur across central and eastern PA by tonight.

This rainfall will result in significant rises on streams and
creeks with minor to moderate small stream and river flooding
possible.

Crests on larger mainstem rivers may not occur until
later Friday or even early Saturday based on ensemble river
forecasts.

Antecedent conditions are relatively wet and streamflows are
modestly elevated. A flood watch continues overnight for the
eastern half of the CWA with areal flood warnings through this
evening near and to the east of the Susq's Mainstem and its
West Branch.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ028-037-041-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
LONG TERM...DeVoir/RXR
AVIATION...Martin/Colbert
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-011900-
Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>036-045-011900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.