Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1202 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm and relatively humid conditions will combine with an
approaching pool of cool air aloft to generate scattered to
numerous afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
today and again on Tuesday. A cold front will move through from
the west early Wednesday, and lead to a mainly dry latter half
of the week with lower, more comfortable humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Full sunshine this morning across the entire CWA (after some
patchy early morning low clouds and fog) is leading to much more
robust instability (compared to Sunday) in the form of sfc-based
capes exceeding 2000 j/kg and approaching 3000 j/kg across the
Southern Tier of PA.

SPC MRGL Risk over the entire CWA looks in good shape based on
the high instability and relatively low shear environment.
Expect terrain induced SHRA to fire within the next hour or so
with convective temps in the low-mid 80s, and quickly grow into
locally strong to severe pulse TSRA that will be slow-moving to
the NNE.

Approach of MCV from Ecent Ohio later this afternoon and evening
will provide some mesoscale enhanced UVVEL and Shear for more
organized clusters of TSRA and potential for localized training
and heavy rain. WPC has approx the Western half of PA painted
with a MRGL risk for Excessive Rain this afternoon and evening
as PWAT values climb from 1-1.25 inches to between 1.5-1.75
inches.

Prev...

NAM generates a lot of QPF from the storms it generates this
aftn and evening over the western counties. The only appreciable
rain on Sun was in the western highlands. So, we'll have to be
aware of localized flooding issues there.

Mid-late afternoon high temps will be in the mid to upper 80s in
most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The threat of storms will diminish later in the evening as the
storms travel eastward. Fog again a good bet tonight, mainly in
the valleys, but really anywhere it rains today.

Tuesday afternoon and evening, another round of convection
seems likely, as a stronger northern stream wave and associated
cold front approach from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tues night and Wed AM, the cold front should push through the
Commonwealth. Any showers and storms along the front should be
relegated to the Susquehanna Valley. The northern mountains
could still have a few showers in the afternoon as a secondary
trough passes overhead.

The latest NAEFS and ECENS both support a return to near
seasonal temperatures and lower chances of rain between Wed
evening and Fri. Can't rule out a few isolated showers mainly in
NW PA each afternoon, with mean trough over eastern N. America
and a few weak upper disturbances riding through the base of the
trough.

Return flow and a strong warm front will bring a surge of
increased heat and humidity back to the area starting late
Fri/Sat. Showers/storms will be possible with the passage of the
warm front as well as through the weekend in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

An approaching upper air disturbance from East Central Ohio
will ne moving through central PA airfields this afternoon-
evening. This feature and preferred areas of terrain heating
will bring scattered-numerous TSRA across at least the western
half of the area with localized reductions in Cig and Vsby to
MVFR.

Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs/showers possible NW Mtns. Numerous showers
spreading east across Central and Western PA airfields during
the midday and afternoon hours with scattered TSRA and brief
reductions in cigs and vsbys to MVFR possible.

Tue...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts
possible.

Wed...AM low cigs/fog possible W Mtns. Isolated PM tsra impacts
possible southeast Pa.

Thu...AM low cigs/fog possible. Mainly VFR PM.

Fri...AM low cigs/fog possible. Mainly VFR PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1244 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

PAZ024-033-221745-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
1244 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1242 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Davidsville to near Berlin to near Grantsville.
Movement of individual storms within this line was to the north
northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Somerset, Westmont, Windber, Belmont, Geistown, Southmont,
Meyersdale, Berlin, Friedens, Boswell, Dale, East Conemaugh,
Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville, Central City,
Beaverdale-Lloydell, Paint, Jerome and South Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7917 3998 7916 4032 7901 4040 7883
      4031 7867 4015 7871 4007 7874 4007 7875
      4006 7876 4001 7876 3973 7886 3972 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 229DEG 16KT 4022 7893 3995 7903 3971 7907

Lambert