Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Isolated convection has formed in weakly unstable air mass over
the Coastal Bend into the Brush Country this afternoon. Additional
lift may be associated with the nose of the upper level jet over
south central Texas. Expect the isolated convection will dissipate
by 00Z tonight.

Upper level pattern will not change through the forecast period
with the mid/upper level ridge over the Rockies and a mid to upper
level trough over the southern Mississippi River valley extending
south into the Gulf of Mexico. Drier air mass should push into
the inland sections tonight to see slightly below normal lows in
this area. Adequate moisture will return to the coastal regions
on Thursday with PWAT values above 1.5 inches. Models also show a
weak mid level short wave trough and associated upper level speed
max moving south into the coastal plains Thursday afternoon that
could provide lift. Should see isolated convection form on the sea
breeze boundary during the afternoon hours. A little better
onshore flow will lead to near normal lows for Thursday night.

Heat index values will max out around 105 degrees over the inland
Coastal Bend and the western Brush Country Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

At the beginning of the extended period S TX remains caught between
a mid-upper level ridge centered over the SW US and a mid-upper
level trough digging south from the Mississippi River Valley into
the Gulf of Mexico. With lower than seasonal average PWAT values
combined with the subsidence associated with the location of S TX
on the convergent side of the trough, precipitation chances will
be minimal on Friday. Through the weekend, the trough lifts to
the northeast allowing some increase in moisture over the area.
Have included slight PoPs on Sunday for some potential showers and
thunderstorms over the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

Heading into next week the topic is focused on the tropics...H7
levels reflect an area of low pressure approaching the area with
winds filtering in moisture from the Gulf. PWAT values increase to
around 2.0 inches around the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads
and 1.8 inches elsewhere. With sufficient moisture and divergence
aloft, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area
early next week.

To further the discussion, a lot of uncertainty in the timing and
evolution of the tropical waves currently located in the Caribbean.
The development of the systems is dependent on how quickly the
trough that is currently digging into S TX will lift out of the
area. Models all reflect the trough lifting, but are in
disagreement as to how long this process will take. In any case,
NHC continues to monitor the progression of these waves. At this
time invest 97L is located in the central Caribbean with an 80%
chance of development over the next 5 days. Invest 98L is
approximately 1000 mi east of the Windward Islands and has a 90%
chance of development over the next 5 days. It is still too early
to pinpoint the timing, track, and impacts with either of these
tropical waves due to the uncertainties mentioned earlier combined
with disagreement between models. Nonetheless, have placed 40 and
50 PoPs in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday and 30/40 PoPs into
Wednesday to account for the surge in moisture from the Gulf.

All of that being said, we will continue to keep a close eye on the
tropics. With the peak of the season approaching it is important to
stay up to date with the latest forecasts and have a plan should the
S TX area be affected.

Heat index values generally remain at or below 105 degrees for most
of the area through the extended period; however, isolated areas
could see values above 105 degrees and nearing 110 degrees
particularly during the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak onshore flow will occur this evening as the sea breeze
slowly moves inland. Winds will become light by daybreak Thursday.
The onshore flow will become weak to moderate southeast behind
the developing sea breeze Thursday afternoon into the evening
hours. Winds will become weak southerly late Thursday night.

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue Friday through
early next week with winds becoming more moderate in the
afternoons and subsiding to weaker levels at night. Seas will be
around 2 feet tomorrow night through Saturday, building to 3 feet
Sunday morning and 5 feet by Monday afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday with
rain chances increasing for Monday and Tuesday and continuing
through next week across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  98  77  95  76  /  10  20  10   0   0
Victoria          70  99  74  97  75  /   0  20  10  10   0
Laredo            77 104  78 102  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             73 101  74  99  74  /  10  20  10   0   0
Rockport          79  95  80  93  82  /   0  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           73 103  76 102  75  /   0  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        73 100  76  98  74  /   0  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  94  79  92  82  /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
HAA/72...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-200915-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-200915-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

87/84

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
343 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

TXZ231-232-241-243-244-192130-
Live Oak-Jim Wells-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Bee-
343 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NUECES...
NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO...NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS...SOUTHEASTERN
LIVE OAK AND SOUTH CENTRAL BEE COUNTIES...

At 343 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Tynan to near West Sinton. Movement
was southwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mathis, Skidmore, Lake City, San Patricio, Lagarto, Edroy, Bluntzer,
Tynan, Sandia, West Sinton, Argenta, Mount Lucas, Dinero, Lakeside,
Lake Corpus Christi and Pernitas Point.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2820 9804 2782 9779 2803 9759 2833 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 056DEG 5KT 2823 9775 2806 9768

TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
403 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

TXZ245-344-443-192145-
Coastal San Patricio-Nueces Islands-Coastal Aransas-
403 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS...EAST
CENTRAL NUECES AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...

At 402 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gregory, or
near Portland, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Port Aransas, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Gregory and
Ingleside On The Bay.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2775 9727 2780 9732 2781 9737 2793 9738
      2799 9734 2803 9720 2778 9706 2771 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 342DEG 8KT 2794 9728

TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

TXZ231-241-243-192200-
Live Oak-Jim Wells-Inland Nueces-
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL NUECES...NORTHERN
JIM WELLS AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

At 408 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Westdale, or 10
miles southwest of Mathis, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, Orange Grove, Sandia, Tecalote, Alfred-South La Paloma, Alfred
and Westdale.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2810 9802 2802 9783 2774 9794 2786 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 026DEG 9KT 2800 9797

TE