Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

There are two areas of convection we are keeping an eye on this
evening. Storms have recently developed along a boundary across
the Northern Coastal Bend and will slowly drift southwest. The
area to our north has been weakening recently but we will continue
to monitor it as the atmosphere is quite unstable this evening.

See below for 00Z Aviation update.

&&

.AVIATION...

A tricky aviation forecast for this TAF cycle. A line of strong to
severe storms is currently moving south across the Hill Country.
COT will be impacted first with the line arriving between 00Z and
02Z. The line will continue south towards LRD between 02-04Z.
Activity will spread east overnight but the timing a bit more
uncertain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible at the terminals
tonight as these storms move through. Conditions will begin to
improve late Friday morning with a generally north winds
persisting around 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

Challenging precipitation forecast in the immediate term.
Convection looks to have two facets: first convection this
afternoon along and near a weak surface boundary, and secondly
from an MCS developing upscale from current convection over west
central Texas.

As alluded to above, a weak surface boundary is draped across the
Coastal Bend, with thunderstorms firing on the boundary along the
upper Texas coast northeast of us. The initial focus is looking
less and less likely at this hour as capping appears to be
preventing thunderstorm growth in our area. Surface winds are
weak and directionally unfavorable for air mass convection, and
satellite imagery shows little if any initiation here.

The second focus appears to be developing ahead of schedule as
thunderstorms developed across west central Texas earlier than any
of the convection-allowing models depicted. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect to our north and northwest, with evident hail
and wind threats. We expect additional convection over the Sierra
Madres to also grow upscale and present an additional threat later
on as all these storms move generally south. Thunderstorm threats
in our area from this activity may continue into Friday morning.

Rain chances diminish gradually Friday and Friday night as drier
air slowly moves into the Coastal Bend. By late Friday rain
chances will be limited to the southern tier of counties and
adjacent coastal waters.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

A weak surface boundary meanders around the coast Saturday
associated with an elongated upper-level trough producing a cut-off
low over Southern Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper-level high sits on top
of the low in New Mexico. These two circulations rotate around each
other in a clockwise fashion through the weekend before coagulating
with one another and getting absorbed by a deep ridge by midweek.

Therefore, only isolated showers and thunderstorms chances are in
place for Saturday over the waters, coastal bend, and southern areas
of the CWA. As the low over Mexico shifts northward into early next
week, moisture increases but most of the activity is expected to
remain in Mexico. However, left some rain chances over for Monday
and Tuesday. Monday is looking to be the most favorable day for
widespread showers and thunderstorms so have bumped up the PoPs a
bit, with the western half of the CWA having the greatest chances.
Monday night through Tuesday will have chances focused over the Rio
Grande Plains and Brush Country with most of the activity remaining
over Mexico. Tuesday night through the midweek looks to be mainly
dry as subsidence aloft takes place due to ridging aloft.

High temperatures Saturday through Monday will stay rather
consistent, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Expect a
gradual warm trend approaching the mid to upper 90s afterwards
through the midweek as subsidence dominates reducing cloud cover and
allowing for mostly sunny skies.

MARINE...

A weak to moderate northeasterly flow early Saturday will transition
to become more easterly later in the day and persist through
Tuesday. The low over Mexico will move northward, causing
southeasterly winds to return Tuesday night. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through Tuesday with more
emphasis on the southern half of the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  87  70  88  71  /  40  30  20  20  10
Victoria          71  87  68  90  69  /  30  20  10  20   0
Laredo            72  86  70  92  71  /  60  50  10  10   0
Alice             72  89  69  91  70  /  40  30  10  20  10
Rockport          75  88  74  89  76  /  30  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           72  90  68  92  69  /  40  20  10  10   0
Kingsville        72  88  70  90  71  /  50  30  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       75  85  75  88  75  /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TC/95...AVIATION

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BEEVILLE          28.42N 97.76W
05/27/2020                   BEE                TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES UPROOTED AND CARPORTS DAMAGED ACROSS
            NORTHWEST BEEVILLE. BEALLS DEPARTMENT STORE
            SUSTAINED DAMAGED TO THEIR ROOF.

&&

TC

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