Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
645 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

00Z aviation discussion follows.

&&

.AVIATION...

Slow moving cold front is on track to reach VCT around 9 PM, and
CRP closer to 1 PM ahead of MVFR and eventually IFR to LIFR
ceilings. Expect scattered to numerous TS near and ahead of the
front, with potential for severe storms. Greatest severe threat
looks to favor LRD and COT before midnight. IFR ceilings or lower
should linger most/all of Saturday with some showers at times.

Lastly, the COT ASOS is not sending data due to faulty telephone
lines, so routine amendments will not be available until further
notice.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg over
the western Brush Country at this time. Convection has formed over
the Rio Grande plains into the Hill Country as the exit region of
the upper level jet moving out of northern Mexico approaches along
with lift associated with the cold front advancing south through
the Hill Country. Hi-res models continue show storms will move
southeast toward the coastal plains this evening as the cold front
continues to plunge south. Expect the front will be in the
northern Brush Country by early this evening, near a VCT-LRD line
around 03Z, and be near the coast around 08Z tonight. Threat for
severe will diminish 2-3 hours after frontal passage. Storms will
have the potential to produce large hail over the Brush Country
where instability is greater. Severe threat for hail and damaging
winds will exist all the way to the coast for this evening. High
moisture will be in place ahead of the front this evening with
precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. Some of the storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall (2-3 inches per hour). But
the activity should move at a sufficient pace as the front
continues to push through the region. With region currently in
drought status, soil should be able to absorb heavy rains.

Went with CONSShort for temperatures through the period as the
cold air mass will remain in place Saturday and Saturday night.
Warm air advection will increase above the shallow cold air mass
on Saturday as another in a series of short wave troughs in the
active subtropical flow moves across the region on Saturday. The
short wave trough will move northeast of the area Saturday night,
but low level warm air advection above the shallow cold air should
lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday
night.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...

A warm front will move into the area Sunday, returning onshore low,
warm temperatures, and moisture. A ridge of high pressure will build
over the Gulf of Mexico, while a trough of low pressure will develop
to the west. Several shortwaves will move across the area with this
set up, keeping slight chance to chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area for the week. PWATs will remain high,
between 1.5" to 2", through the period, so some moderate to heavy
rain showers are possible through the week. Another cold front looks
to push through the area by the end of the period, again increasing
chances for some PoPs.

MARINE...

The onshore flow will weaken tonight as a cold front moves through
South Texas and moves into the coastal waters before daybreak
Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
arrive with the front late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue Saturday as the front moves through the coastal waters.
Moderate to strong northeast winds/SCEC conditions are expected
behind the front Saturday into Saturday night with SCA conditions
possible over the Gulf waters Saturday afternoon and evening.

Moderate to strong northeast winds are expected behind the front
Saturday night with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions likely,
and Small Craft Advisory Conditions possible for Saturday night.
Weak to moderate onshore flow will return Sunday behind a warm
front. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through most
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  64  61  77  68  /  60  80  40  40  20
Victoria          56  61  58  76  67  /  70  80  60  50  20
Laredo            61  62  60  74  65  /  80  90  40  50  40
Alice             61  64  58  77  67  /  60  80  40  50  20
Rockport          62  65  63  77  70  /  50  80  40  40  20
Cotulla           56  60  57  75  65  /  80  80  30  50  30
Kingsville        63  66  60  78  68  /  60  80  40  50  20
Navy Corpus       64  66  64  77  71  /  50  80  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

MCZ/93...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-041200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms for all of south
Texas this afternoon through tonight except for the immediate
coastline where a Marginal risk for severe storms exists. Main
hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out for the Brush Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
tonight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across south Texas Saturday.
Storms are not expected to become severe.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday through
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe weather and
flooding while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. Use
hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-041200-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms tonight. Storms
could produce wind gusts to 35 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small craft advisory conditions are possible Saturday afternoon
and evening.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the
weekend into early next week.

TMT/LS

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