Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
111 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary surge of cold air will flow across the region
through the evening. A trough of low pressure will then linger
over the area through Friday. High pressure builds into the
region for Saturday. Low pressure will develop over the central
Plains on Saturday night and move northeast to the Great Lakes
region for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusty showers with small have have developed as expected over
the area. Expect to see the coverage of the showers increase as
they move eastward through the afternoon. There will be
isolated/scattered thunder through sunset. Current thinking is
that any hail should stay smaller than a nickel. Winds will also
increase in the wake of the showers with a few gusts
approaching advisory levels. For now have capped gusts off at
45 mph.

As the cooler air flows over the lake we transition to a lake
effect scenario this evening into the overnight. Rain will
transition to snow. The higher terrain will see this transition
occur first. Some accumulations are expected in the higher
terrain, especially across inland NW PA. The lake effect snow
showers will then continue into Friday afternoon before
gradually tapering off across NW PA into Friday evening. We will
dig into snow amounts more through the afternoon. It will be
unseasonably cool tonight with lows ranging from the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Highs on Friday will vary from west to east with
middle 40s west and mid 30s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rather flat ridging will be across the region for the weekend. Will
finally be able to rid ourselves of lake enhanced showers and have a
dry forecast for Friday night and Saturday. The upper low across
southern California will attempt to interact with a strong northern
trough and develop a low across the Southern Plains. This will draw
an warm front northward Saturday night into Sunday with the chance
for a few showers to accompany it. The greater chances arrive on
Sunday night as the deepening low nears Ohio/lower lakes with a slug
of moisture and plenty of upper support. Overall models are in
decent agreement with this system. Temperatures will recover over
the weekend with 50s Saturday and 60s Sunday. The gradient will
likely be strong enough to prevent any lake breeze on Sunday and we
should be able to get that warm front to press north across the
lake.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The strong system and cold front will be quickly crossing the area
early Monday morning with another push of below normal temperatures
for a several day stretch. Winds may be rather gusty too Monday. The
pattern is a little messy for Tuesday-Wednesday with a couple of
disturbances possibly yielding some precipitation. It will be cold
enough to mention a mix with snow showers at night. After early
highs on Monday, high temperatures going into mid week will only be
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Gusty showers with small hail will move west to east across the
area into the evening. MVFR conditions are a given with the
convective showers. However brief IFR is possible especially if
we start to see a greater coverage in thunder. For now will only
place a VCTS in the forecast across the east. Rain will
transition to snow. The higher terrain will see this transition
occur first. Some accumulations are expected in the higher
terrain, especially across inland NW PA. MVFR with patchy IFR
conditions will occur across NE OH into NW PA. VFR across the
west on Friday with gradually improving conditions across the
east.

Westerly winds increase this afternoon with strongest gusts
across the west. Gusts to 40 knots area possible with the
showers and also in their wake across the west. Winds shift to
the northwest tonight and persist into Friday. Speeds 15 to 20
knots will be common with higher gusts, especially closer to
the lakeshore.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible into Friday evening with lake
effect across NW PA. Non-VFR also possible Sunday into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front has crossed the lake early this morning and a secondary
trough and a push of cold air will cross the lake during the
remainder of the morning hours. This will initiate stronger winds on
the lake and will get real close to possible low end Gales with the
west flow. The period of strong winds may continue into Friday
especially across the eastern basin with more west-northwest flow.
By Friday night a ridge of high pressure will build across the Ohio
Valley. Early next week will feature another dynamic system with a
warm front lifting north across the lake on Sunday and a cold front
sweeping across the lake Sunday night/early Monday from deepening
low pressure. This could potentially yield a period of Gales for
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Oudeman

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
103 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

OHZ029-030-091730-
Richland-Ashland-
103 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SHOWERS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT EASTERN RICHLAND AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES...

At 102 PM EDT, a shower was located near Mansfield, moving east at 30
mph.

Half inch hail and gusts to 40 mph will be possible with showers
this afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Ashland, Loudonville, Hayesville, Polk, Perrysville,
Lucas, Jeromesville, Bailey Lakes, Mifflin, Rowsburg, Mohicanville,
Nankin, Shenandoah and Olivesburg.

LAT...LON 4071 8255 4098 8251 4093 8213 4084 8212
      4067 8213 4067 8222 4058 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 288DEG 25KT 4077 8245

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
113 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

OHZ007-009-091745-
Erie-Ottawa-
113 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...A SHOWER PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT OTTAWA AND ERIE
COUNTIES...

At 112 PM EDT, a shower was located near Port Clinton, moving east at
30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
shower.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Port Clinton, Castalia, Marblehead, Bay View, Sandusky
South and Fairview Lanes.

LAT...LON 4153 8282 4154 8272 4153 8271 4150 8274
      4147 8266 4147 8269 4146 8270 4138 8251
      4141 8285 4148 8282 4150 8285 4149 8295
      4152 8294 4153 8288 4159 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 269DEG 26KT 4150 8283

Clark