Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Cleveland, OH

155 
WHUS71 KCLE 190223
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
923 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

LEZ146>149-191030-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.201119T0500Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
923 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 
  knots and waves 2 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-191030-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.201119T0300Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
923 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  and waves 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

394 
WHUS71 KCLE 190840
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

LEZ146>149-191645-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
340 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and
  waves building to 4 to 7 feet today. Southwest winds 20 to 30 
  knots tonight and Friday with waves of 3 to 5 feet. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-191645-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
340 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  and waves 3 to 5 feet expected. Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots
  tonight and into Friday. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

684 
WHUS71 KCLE 191445
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
945 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

LEZ146>149-192245-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
945 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 
  knots and waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-192245-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
945 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
  and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

850 
WHUS71 KCLE 192049
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

LEZ146>149-200500-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
349 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-200500-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
349 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 
  knots and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

890 
WHUS71 KCLE 200233
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

LEZ146>149-201045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
933 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-201045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
933 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

960 
WHUS71 KCLE 200845
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

LEZ146>149-201645-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
345 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-201645-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
345 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

796 
WHUS71 KCLE 201433
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

LEZ146>149-202245-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
933 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 12 to 22 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  and waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ142>145-201800-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
933 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 12 to 22 knots with gusts up to 25 
  knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

001 
WHUS71 KCLE 201747
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

LEZ142>145-201900-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201120T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft.

$$

LEZ146>149-210000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
  and waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

499 
WHUS71 KCLE 201944
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
244 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

LEZ146-202045-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
244 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft.

$$

LEZ147>149-210000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
244 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
  and waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Willowick OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

660 
WHUS71 KCLE 202335
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
635 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

LEZ147>149-210045-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-201121T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
635 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have decreased to below Small Craft Advisory
conditions.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1255 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

...18z Aviation TAF Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley region today and
then off the Virginia and Carolina coast by Thursday. A warm front
will lift northeast across the area tonight followed by a cold front
Friday night. High pressure will move east across the central Great
Lakes Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
915 am update...
We adjusted the precip chances downward over northwest
Pennsylvania for this morning to match better with trends as it
relates to the lake effect snow showers ending. The rest of the
on going forecast looks on track at this time

Previous discussion...
The lake effect snow bands are quickly diminishing and shifting
up to the east as high pressure begins to build into the region.
Therefore, decided to drop the winter weather advisory for
northwest Pennsylvania.

Otherwise, some mid level clouds are spreading into the western
portions of the forecast area and made some adjustments to the
clouds in that area.

Previous Discussion...

Upper level trough will finally exit to the east today as an  upper
level ridge begins to build east across the Great Lakes region.

Surface high pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley today
and then shift east tonight.  The high will start to develop some
shear over the eastern portions of the forecast area and affect any
remaining lake effect snow bands.  Then remaining snow bands will
shift to the east from the current northwest flow to more of a
westerly flow by this afternoon.  Even though trend in snow shower
activity is waning, will hold onto winter weather advisory over
northwest Pennsylvania as bands may re-emerge in the westerly flow
before ending later this morning.   Rest of the forecast area will
see fair weather prevailing through the day today.  Fair weather
will be the rule across the area tonight under the influence of the
surface high pressure affecting the local area.

Next big story to discuss is a potential for another low end wind
event for Thursday.  Surface low pressure is progged to move
northeast into northern Ontario, Canada while surface high settles
into the Carolinas Thursday morning.  Gradient between the two
systems will set-up some gusty wind conditions Thursday.  850 mb jet
noses northeast into the forecast area with 60 knot 925 mb jet doing
the same.  Mixing heights currently indicate wind gusts in the 40
knot range up to about 1000 feet at this time but if mixing height
increases to around 2000 feet, then the 60 knot wind gusts are
possible.  Skies appear they will be mostly sunny and the potential
is there for good mixing during the day.  Will have to closely
monitor this situation for possible wind headlines Thursday.  Stay
tuned.

Forecast area will start to warm up in the presence of the high
pressure building east.  A warm front will lift northeast across the
area tonight.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer in the lower to
middle 40s over much of the area and middle to upper 30s in the
eastern quarter of the area. For tonight,  lows will be in the
middle 20s extreme east to lower and middle 30s elsewhere.  Highs
Thursday will soar back to the lower 60s west and central and to the
middle and upper 50s extreme east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy conditions persist Thursday night with a very tight pressure
gradient remaining over the region. Winds will assist in keeping it
warmer Thursday night with lows holding in the 40's.

Still breezy on Friday as the strongest of the low level jet moving
to New England. Southwesterly winds will keep the warm air flowing
into the CWA. Highs will range from the mid 50's across NW PA to the
mid 60's across NW OH.

A cold front settles southward across the region late Friday evening
before stalling over central/southern Ohio for Saturday. Lows Friday
night should dip into the upper 30's to mid 40's. Likely warmest
near the south shore of the lake.

The stalled frontal boundary to our south will begin to move
northward as a warm front Saturday into Saturday night. High
pressure moving from Ontario into Quebec bring drier air into the
region and should slow the development of any rain. However will
have to mention some light showers across NW OH as early as Saturday
afternoon with the frontal boundary nearby. Better warm advection
develops Saturday night as low pressure develops over southern
Illinois. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with the front to
the south of the area. Highs should be in the low to mid 50's. Cloud
cover and showers in the area Saturday night will help to keep lows
in the 40's at most locations Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm front lifts north of the region early Sunday as low pressure
takes shape over southern Illinois. This low lifts across central
Lake Erie at some point Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Expect
showers to spread across the entire region Sunday afternoon through
early Monday morning. Cant rule out a few snow flakes early Monday
morning across NW Ohio and the hills of NW PA but it should not
stick. Beyond Monday the models take completely different paths with
the forecast. So very little confidence in the forecast Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

Unseasonably warm on Sunday with highs in the mid 50's to lower
60's. Cooler Monday into Tuesday with highs mostly in the 40's.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The main aviation concern with this TAF update will be the
gusty winds developing for the latter half of the TAF period on
Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for
all sites with mostly clear skies. There will be a tight
pressure gradient that develops over the region by Thursday
morning through Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds will slowly
increase for the rest of today into tonight between 8 to 15
knots. Some localized gusty winds will be possible closer to the
lakeshore late tonight with a downsloping effect around ERI. All
TAF sites will see gusty southerly winds on Thursday between 20
to 30 knots. TOL, MFD, FDY, and CLE will likely see higher gusts
closer to 35 or maybe 40 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Friday night through Sunday night
with rain showers and a cold in the area.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridges onto the lake from the south today but
will settle to the Mid-Atlantic region tonight. This occurring
as low pressure moves from northern Ontario to Hudson Bay on
Thursday. Expect a very tight pressure gradient across the
central Great Lakes. Models are indicating a 50-60 knot low
level jet flowing over Lake Erie. Since it looks like it will be
warm advection over a cooler lake we dont want to get too
carried away with strong winds to the surface. However it will
need to be monitored closely with a higher end small craft
advisory likely. Gusts may reach 40 to 45 knots Thursday
afternoon. The cold front from the low over northern Ontario
will drift to Lake Erie at some point Friday evening with winds
shifting to the northwest. High pressure north of the lake will
help to shift winds around to the northeast Saturday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...MM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-191915-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
214 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie, eastern
Lake Erie and western Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-191915-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-Morrow-
214 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-021>023-031>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-191915-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
214 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1027 AM EST WED NOV 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E CHARDON             41.58N  81.18W
11/18/2020  M2.6 INCH        GEAUGA             OH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 E EDINBORO            41.87N  80.08W
11/18/2020  M2.8 INCH        ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12-HOUR SNOWFALL. STORM TOTAL 9.6

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW EDINBORO           41.90N  80.16W
11/18/2020  M2.0 INCH        ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12-HOUR SNOWFALL. STORM TOTAL 7.5

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SSW CORRY             41.90N  79.65W
11/18/2020  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL. STORM TOAL 9.5

0700 AM     SNOW             2 W TITUSVILLE          41.63N  79.70W
11/18/2020  M2.6 INCH        CRAWFORD           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CLE2001017
EVENT NUMBER CLE2001018
EVENT NUMBER CLE2001019
EVENT NUMBER CLE2001020
EVENT NUMBER CLE2001021

THOMPSON