Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Cleveland, OH

026 
WHUS71 KCLE 181457
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

LEZ142-143-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200118T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LO.Y.0003.200118T2000Z-200119T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 30 knots,
  with gusts up to 35 knots, and waves 2 to 4 feet. For the Gale
  Warning, west winds 25 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 45 knots,
  and waves 3 to 6 feet are expected. For the Low Water Advisory,
  abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno 
  Beach OH and Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The 
  Islands OH.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM EST this
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 7
  AM EST Sunday. For the Low Water Advisory, from 3 PM this
  afternoon to 11 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of 9:50 AM EST Saturday, the water level
  at Toledo was 63 inches above low water datum, or 39 inches
  above the critical mark for safe navigation. Strong west winds 
  over the western basin of Lake Erie are expected to cause water 
  levels to drop below the critical mark late this afternoon 
  through late Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LEZ162-163-182300-
/O.NEW.KCLE.LO.Y.0003.200118T2000Z-200119T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 30 to 40 knots, with
  gusts up to 50 knots, and waves 4 to 7 feet expected. For the 
  Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH 
  and Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM 
  EST Sunday. For the Low Water Advisory, from 3 PM this 
  afternoon to 11 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of 9:50 AM EST Saturday, the water level
  at Toledo was 63 inches above low water datum, or 39 inches
  above the critical mark for safe navigation. Strong west winds
  over the western basin of Lake Erie are expected to cause water
  levels to drop below the critical mark late this afternoon
  through late Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LEZ144-145-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200118T2000Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 30 knots,
  with gusts up to 40 knots, and waves 2 to 4 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, west winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to 
  Vermilion OH and Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM EST this
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 7
  AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ147>149-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200118T2300Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2300Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 30 knots,
  with gusts up to 40 knots, and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale
  Warning, west winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 7 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Lake Erie.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM
  EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200118T2000Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 25 knots
  with gusts up to 35 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, southwest winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 
  knots, and waves 7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to 
  Willowick OH.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM EST this
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 10
  AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ166-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 7 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ164-165-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH 
  and Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-167>169-182300-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2300Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
957 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 9 to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and eastern Lake Erie.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

945 
WHUS71 KCLE 182045
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

LEZ142-143-162-163-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.LO.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200119T1600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 25 to 35 knots, with
  gusts up to 50 knots, and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Low Water 
  Advisory, abnormally-low water levels.

* WHERE...Portions of western Lake Erie.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Low Water Advisory, until 11 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of 3:35 PM EST Saturday, the water level
  at Toledo was 43 inches above low water datum, or 19 inches
  above the critical mark for safe navigation. Strong west winds
  over the western basin of Lake Erie are expected to cause water
  levels to drop below the critical mark this evening into Sunday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LEZ147>149-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200118T2300Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2300Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10
AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 25 to 30 knots,
  with gusts up to 35 knots, and waves 2 to 5 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, west winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Lake Erie.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this
  evening. For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ144-145-164-165-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of central Lake Erie.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146-166-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 7 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH 
  and Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-167>169-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0002.200118T2300Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10
AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots, with gusts up to 50 knots, 
  and waves 8 to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and eastern Lake Erie.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1259 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east across the central Great Lakes on
Saturday. High pressure from the northern Great Plains and upper
Midwest builds southeast to the Ohio Valley Monday through
Wednesday, lingering over the mid-Atlantic on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Some overall minor adjustments to temperatures, pops, precip
type, snow amounts, and ice accumulations with the mid evening
update. No big changes with temperatures through the overnight,
with mainly a refresh to current temperature trends over the
next couple of hours. Updated pops to reflect the arrival of
snowfall in the form of a moderately intense band moving through the
I-75 corridor. This band correlates well with an area of good
700-500mb omega depicted in the latest hi-res solutions. This
initial band could drop a quick 1-2 inches with a bit of a dry
slot behind it associated with some drier 925-850 mb air that
should saturate through the overnight. With the forecast
continuing into morning, went a touch more aggressive with the
warm air aloft pushing into the area, mainly after 11Z close and
close to the previous forecast timing, but a bit warmer and
farther northeast. This results in a touch more freezing rain
than previously forecast, so went with wording of up to one
tenth of an inch vs previous trace amount wording. There is
still some potential of a quicker transition to FZRA which could
lead to higher amounts as depicted in recent NAM solutions, but
hedged a little less aggressive. Overall, snowfall amounts are
close to previous forecast, but went an inch or so higher
across the Toledo area given the earlier onset of moderate
snowfall. Have storm total mounts around 6 inches, pushing the
envelope of the need to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for
Lucas. Kept the advisory going with higher amounts noted, but
will monitor reports through Midnight to see if a warning
upgrade is prudent for the overnight. Original discussion
follows.

Summary:
A deepening low pressure system brings the threat for
multiple hazards this weekend. Snow, freezing rain, sleet, and
gusty winds will induce hazardous travel conditions tonight
through early Saturday afternoon.

Conditions change rapidly as our next system approaches from the
west. Surface low currently located just downstream the Rockies
will make its way east-northeast tonight as the responsible
upper level trough lifts northeast. Strong differential
vorticity advection and favorable jet dynamics will result in
this low, currently around 1004 mb, deepening to 990-995 mb as
it tracks east across central Iowa, southern Wisconsin and
northern lower Michigan on Saturday. This will intensify the
wind field around it, developing a low level jet with wind
speeds as high as 70 knots at 700mb, allowing for the advection
of moisture into the region. As a result of favorable synoptic
conditions in place, widespread precipitation will approach from
the west. This will begin as all snow with surface temperatures
expected to be below 32 degrees through 12 UTC Saturday. Snow
transitions to rain from southwest to northeast during the day
Saturday as the warm front lifts northeast, bringing
temperatures briefly to around 40 degrees during the
afternoon/evening Saturday. However, the strong low level jet
will also be responsible for complicating things as it advects
warm temperatures between 850 and 700 mb ahead of the warm
front. This will introduce an area of freezing rain and sleet
mixing in for several hours as snow transitions over to rain.
When its all said and done, snow accumulations expected to be 1
to 3 inches for central Ohio, and 2 to 5 inches for northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Ice accumulations expected to
be less than a 0.10 inches with the greatest risk across central
Ohio. Confidence is high that we will have several inches of
snow followed by a period of freezing rain and sleet. However,
confidence is lower with exact snow/ice accumulation amounts
and timing of precipitation type changeover. There is quite a
bit of model variance in the strength of the warm air aloft. The
more aggressive models, such as the NAM, have changeover much
sooner and freezing rain/sleet occurring for a longer duration,
resulting in less snow but more ice. This type of model trend
is somewhat concerning and observations upstream will have to be
closely monitored to see how things trend.

In addition to the precipitation, windy conditions are expected.
Winds begin increasing out of the southeast tonight and slowly
veer as it strengthens. Sustained southerly winds of 20 knots
with gusts up to 35 knots are expected after 1400 UTC. The cold
front works its way east across the area after 2000 UTC
increasing the potential for stronger westerly winds during a 6
hour period Saturday night. A Wind Advisory may be needed for
this.

Scattered snow showers return Saturday night following the cold
frontal passage but slowly decreasing in coverage through the
night. This will precede the beginning of lake effect snow
developing late Saturday night across the primary snowbelt as
cold air aloft moves in and northwesterly flow develops. More
on this in the next section...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A strong area of low pressure will be exiting the region Sunday
morning.  Strong cold air advection will be occurring behind this
system.  Current model forecasts indicate 850mb temperatures of -10
to -12C moving over the mainly open Great Lakes on Sunday. Wind
shear and available synoptic moisture may limit the lake effect snow
initially on Sunday but the lake effect snow machine will still be
active. A surface trough will move southward across the lower Great
Lakes Sunday evening into Monday. This surface feature is progged to
have abundant 1000-700mb synoptic moisture associated. Wind shear
will have decreased and this system will enhance lake effect snow
bands Sunday night. Wind flow will initially be northwest and become
northerly by Monday morning. Drying will occur behind this surface
trough late Monday into Tuesday. A northwest flow and arctic air
will remain in place so some lake effect snow activity is likely to
continue through Tuesday for the traditional snow belt counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build over the region on Wednesday.  This system
will remain over the forecast area through Thursday.  Another storm
system will be forming over the Great Plains towards the end of the
week.  This system will likely bring precipitation into the region
as early as Friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low pressure and associated warm front will continue to move
northeast toward the area overnight. Snow well ahead of the warm
front is spreading as far east as Cleveland and Mansfield at
this time. Some mixed precipitation has already occurred at
Mansfield west to Findlay. Basically a mixed bag of
precipitation can be expected through this morning and then
warmer air will move northeast into the region and change the
precipitation over to all rain. Ceilings and visibilities will
continue to deteriorate with time across the area over the next
several hours with improvement taking place later this
afternoon into tonight. Lingering lake effect snow will begin to
develop later tonight.

.OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR returns over the weekend with
rain and snow.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move over the east coast overnight.
A deepening storm system will move into the western Great Lakes
region on Saturday. This system will push a warm front across Lake
Erie Saturday afternoon quickly followed by a strong cold front.
Winds will gradual increase as this storm approaches.  An easterly
flow this afternoon will become southeast overnight.  Winds will
shift to the south and increase Saturday afternoon as the warm front
moves across the lake.  The cold front will cross the lake late
Saturday afternoon/evening.  This frontal passage will usher in gale
force winds which will continue through Sunday morning.  A surface
trough of low pressure will move across Lake Erie Sunday evening
creating a shift to a northwest to northerly wind direction.

I will upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning.  Gale force winds
will develop Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday night.
Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots possible.

A potential low water event exists for Saturday afternoon and
evening. NOS water level models show the lake reaching critical
levels late Saturday afternoon.  Since in the potential event is
still over 24 hours away,  I will hold off on the low water advisory
at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ009>014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     LEZ147>149-167>169.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     LEZ146-166.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Garnet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

OHZ009-010-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-182100-
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-182100-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011>014-089-182100-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Lake effect snow is expected to develop Sunday with significant snow
accumulations possible across the primary snowbelt through Monday
and
possibly Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-182100-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Lake effect snow is expected to develop Sunday with significant snow
accumulations possible across the primary snowbelt through Monday
and
possibly Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-182100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie and western
Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the wake of a strong
cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gale force westerly
winds will likely decrease water levels on the western end of Lake
Erie to below the critical water mark. A Low Water Advisory will
likely be needed for Saturday evening/night. A very cold airmass
that will accompany the stronger winds may also generate conditions
favorable for freezing spray.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ145-165-182100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the wake of a strong
cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A very cold airmass
that will accompany the stronger winds may generate conditions
favorable for freezing spray.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-147>149-167>169-182100-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie and eastern
Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the wake of a strong
cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A very cold airmass
that will accompany the stronger winds may generate conditions
favorable for freezing spray.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ146-166-182100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
400 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the wake of a strong
cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A very cold airmass
that will accompany the stronger winds may generate conditions
favorable for freezing spray.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.