Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Cleveland, OH

364 
WWUS51 KCLE 101708
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OHC063-101730-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-200710T1730Z/
Hancock OH-
108 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 107 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Findlay, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Fostoria, Bluffton, North Baltimore, McComb, Arlington,
Arcadia, Rawson, Vanlue, Van Buren, Bloomdale, Benton Ridge, Jenera,
Mount Cory and Bairdstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8388 4117 8343 4100 8342 4099 8344
      4099 8346 4098 8346 4081 8377 4082 8379
      4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 222DEG 26KT 4101 8369 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Clark

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
954 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough will move east across Michigan today and
cross Lake Erie tonight. A cold front will push through late
tonight ushering in a cooler and less humid airmass for the
weekend. Additional but weaker shortwave troughs will cross the
area again on Sunday and Monday as the pattern remains
active.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest radar imagery shows convection over Indiana moving east
into western Ohio. Another cell developed over Lucas county as
well. Radar from Fort Wayne and visible satellite shows
outflow boundaries pushing east and this will be a focus for
further development of convection in the next few hours over the
western portions of the forecast area. Latest SPC guidance has
been been upgraded to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
over the western half of the forecast area for today. This was
expected as threat continued to increase with the approaching
cold front and upper level support. Main threat will be strong
damaging winds with pretty good downburst potential. Excessive
rainfall threat is also expected as well from the thunderstorms.
Latest precipitable water imagery derived from satellite shows
values around 1.7" across the forecast area at this time. Areas
to the east will eventually start to see the convection develop
as lake breeze develops and initiation from localized lifting
mechanisms takes place. Temperatures across the area are warming
rapidly. Currently watching temperature here at Cleveland
Hopkins Airport rise about 2 to 3 degrees per hour. We are
currently at 88 degrees with a dewpoint of 70. Similar trends
are being reported across the area. Expecting another hot one
today but active convection may reduce heating duration this
afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

Focus for today is the progress of a shortwave trough as it
moves east across Michigan. Its eastward progress has slowed
overnight as a frontal wave developed, putting the best estimate
for its arrival around late morning to noon in our western most
counties. In the meantime...expect mostly clear skies for the
first part of the day which will drive temperatures back up into
the 90s. Looking at rapid diurnal heating coinciding with
afternoon height falls which will destabilize the region. MLCAPE
values likely in the 1000-1500+J/kg range this afternoon with
PWATs increasing with low level flow to around 1.8". This will
set the stage for diurnally driven pulse storm development ahead
of the approaching surface front. Looking at
conditional/marginal severe potential this afternoon as shear
values increase to around 15 to 20 knots. Though weak, this
combined with sufficient instability could produce some
localized downburst along with locally heavy rainfall. Lake
breeze east of Vermilion will be the lifting mechanism for
another area of storm development ahead of the main line.
Moisture pooling with main line will push PWATs to around 2" and
warm cloud depths near 13k feet will support heavy rainfall.
Shear values are modest but the timing of 17-24Z will provide
peak boundary layer heating and destabilization which when
combined with low level convergence and upper level support
should strengthen the line as it moves east. Recent hot spell
has dried out much of the area so streams and creeks should be
handle the heavy rain for the most part, however can't rule out
localized flash flooding given the likely intensity of the
rainfall and possibility of cell training.

This evening the cold front will push east of the area with the
shortwave trekking into Ontario. With cooler heights aloft and
lingering low and mid level moisture expect to see a fair amount
of clouds behind the front and ongoing development of showers
through the overnight. The drier air will gradually erode the
clouds from the west by Saturday, however the flow feeding in
from the lakes will continue rain/thunderstorm chances in the
east. Temperatures will return to normal low/mid 80s for
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Multiple upper-level shortwave troughs will make their way across
the region through the short term period, resulting in several
chances for much needed showers and thunderstorms along with near
normal temperatures. The first of the upper-level troughs will make
its way through on Sunday, with the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms during the daytime hours on Sunday. The second upper-
level trough will be quickly moving southeast across the area on
Monday evening/night with slightly less moisture than Sunday's
system. However, there will still be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours on Monday. These
upper-level troughs will result in near-normal temperatures (highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s), which will provide much needed relief
from the ongoing heat wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Tuesday, upper-level ridging builds in before the synoptic
pattern becomes less amplified for the rest of the forecast. This
forecast period will be fairly similar to what we've been seeing the
past week or so: hot temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s with diurnally-forced isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours. Dew points also
creep back up into the upper 60s to near 70 by midweek as well,
making it uncomfortably humid.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the first 6 hrs of the TAF
period at all terminals. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots,
slightly higher with downsloping at ERI. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop early this
afternoon, with locally heavy rain dropping VSBYs and CIGs to
MVFR at times. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will bring a more
linear line of storms starting around noon in the west and
trekking east through the early evening. Gusty winds around
35kt will be possible with the line and any strong pulse storm
this afternoon. Behind the front more stable conditions will
develop and look for a MVFR deck to develop which will continue
into Saturday. Gradually drier air will filter in from the west
lifting/eroding clouds but for the central and eastern terminals
plan for mostly cloudy conditions and on/off again showers and
thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings possible in lower ceilings Saturday
morning. Non-VFR could linger across portions of NE OH and NW PA
through Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 10 knots or less expected during the daytime
hours today. Southwest winds begin strengthening late tonight to
around 15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front
is expected to cross Lake Erie Saturday morning with west to
northwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots most of the day
Saturday. At this point, based on much of the model guidance, it
seems probable that a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard
Statement will be needed for much of the day Saturday. Winds weaken
Saturday night and Sunday but should persist out of the west and
northwest behind a weak front that moves across Lake Erie late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. West to northwest winds persist
through Monday before becoming weak and variable on Tuesday as weak
high pressure builds into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-110800-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain
and localized flooding. Some storms could approach strong to severe
levels with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-110800-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie, eastern
Lake Erie and western Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BELLEVUE            41.28N 82.81W
07/09/2020                   HURON              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE ALONG STATE ROUTE
            113. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OHZ011-012-101630-
Lake-Cuyahoga-
1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES...

At 1154 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Euclid, or
near Willowick, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Willowick, Euclid, Cleveland Heights, Willoughby,
Eastlake, Timberlake, Lakeline, South Euclid, East Cleveland,
Wickliffe, Richmond Heights, Willoughby Hills, Highland Heights,
Bratenahl and Waite Hill.

LAT...LON 4161 8139 4151 8155 4155 8161 4162 8153
      4162 8150 4170 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 209DEG 20KT 4159 8153

Clark