Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Cleveland, OH

085 
WWUS51 KCLE 242120
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
520 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

OHC077-093-242130-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-200824T2130Z/
Huron OH-Lorain OH-
520 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HURON AND
SOUTHWESTERN LORAIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4115 8257 4127 8253 4131 8204 4114 8210
      4114 8217 4113 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 276DEG 26KT 4122 8231 

$$

Greenawalt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will cross southeast over the area tonight through
tomorrow morning. A cold front will move south across the area
Tuesday afternoon. A warm front will then lift north across the
area on Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers and thunderstorms have begun to pop-up around the
area, though have remained mainly isolated in nature. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon and evening hours. Any showers and thunderstorms that
develop are expected to mostly remain below severe levels as
deep layer shear and mid- level lapse rates remain weak, though
any stronger storms could produce gusts up to 40 mph.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will quickly sweep east across the
Lower Great Lakes, ahead of a southward advancing cold front.
Sufficient upward vertical motion and moisture will result in a
brief window of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across portions of NW PA, mainly from 1 to 4 am. Lows will
remain on the warm and muggy side, with temperatures in the
lower 70s.

Things become a little more complicated on Tuesday with a lower
confidence forecast. This, in part, is due to upstream
convection which is expected to move across lower MI overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning. The entirety of our area remains in
a SPC day 2 slight risk, mainly for the threat of damaging
winds.

The first scenario (higher confidence) would support a majority
of our area escaping the brunt of at least the initial round of
storms with unfavorable timing (late morning/early afternoon)
and early- morning cloud cover to help inhibit instability. Will
have to continue to monitor forecast trends tonight and
tomorrow morning as the background environment would be
supportive of organized multicells with a damaging wind threat,
with deep layer shear of around 25 to 30 knots.

The other scenario (lower confidence) could support a quickly
exiting cluster of storms in the early to late morning hours to
our southeast. This would allow instability to build along the
cold front, especially west of I-71 and south of US-30 with deep
layer shear values of 30 to 35 knots. In this scenario, fewer,
but stronger storms would be possible late Tuesday afternoon and
evening along this gradient where shear and instability are
maximized.

Showers and thunderstorms will have largely diminished by
Tuesday night, although there could be some residual shower
activity along the cold front in the western portion of the
area. Lows out west will be in the lower 70s while upper 50s may
be the case out east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday an upper level trough will be located along the New
England coast with a broad ridge over the Upper Midwest. A northwest
to southeast oriented frontal boundary will be draped across
the area at the surface to start the day. This feature is
expected to slowly lift north as a warm front through Wednesday
evening as the ridge expands eastward. Expecting little
activity to be ongoing along the front Wednesday morning with moderate
instability developing south of the boundary during the afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon along the differential heating boundary as
shortwave energy moves through the northwest flow aloft. Main
concern is models have been struggling to resolve these
shortwaves over recent days and if it doesn't align with the
boundary then storms may not materialize as well. The forecast
area remains in a Slight Risk of severe weather for Wednesday
with the best potential focused across NE Ohio. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from near 90 along the I-75
corridor and near 80 in NW PA where cloud cover is thicker.

Thursday is expected to be less active day with a frontal boundary
settling south and stalling near Lake Erie. Have continued with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms as we could start to see some
moisture sneaking up from the south but expecting coverage to be
limited with warm air aloft that may keep the area capped. Thursday
will be hot with all areas seeing highs near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Laura are expected to move north up
the Mississippi Valley on Friday and continue east through the Ohio
Valley Friday night. Moisture advection will occur ahead of this
system and interact with a frontal boundary settling south into the
area. Although the real tropical moisture may remain south of the
area, occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday
into Friday night. A stronger trough will move through the
northwest flow on Saturday pushing the deeper moisture and cold
front south of the area. A much cooler and drier airmass will
arrive over the weekend with temperatures in the 70s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon with mainly
VFR expected through the TAF period. Some diurnal, scattered cu
were seen across the area this afternoon, mainly around 5000
feet. Thinking the best chance for any thunderstorm activity
will be at CAK/YNG for a brief window this afternoon, mainly
from 4 to 6 pm. Tonight, another brief window of -tsra could be
possible at ERI, mainly from 2 to 4 am ahead of a cold front.
Low confidence forecast remains at the tail-end of the TAF
period (15-18Z) on timing and coverage of thunderstorms. In the
meantime, have added vcsh at TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE/ERI to begin the
trend.

Winds mainly out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will diminish tonight, mainly
under 10 knots and remain southwesterly.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms appear more extensive on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots tonight before a
cold front moves south across the eastern Great Lakes early Tuesday.
Winds will shift to the northwest at generally 10-15 knots although
may briefly creep up closer to 20 knots for a brief window.
Conditions in the nearshore waters may get choppy with the frontal
passage. A warm front is expected to lift back north across Lake
Erie Wednesday into Wednesday night with southwest winds of 10 to
20 knots on Lake Erie for Thursday. A slow moving cold front will
settle south towards Lake Erie and stall by Friday before finally
pushing south of the lake on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-251930-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
326 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie, eastern
Lake Erie, western Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio,
northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible
on Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly south of US-30. Another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly across Northeast
Ohio.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

OHZ047-241945-
Knox-
309 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 308 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gambier, or 9
miles east of Mount Vernon, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gambier, Danville and Bladensburg.

LAT...LON 4040 8242 4046 8219 4027 8219 4024 8220
      4024 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 259DEG 21KT 4035 8230

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
429 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

OHZ036-242115-
Marion-
429 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION COUNTY...

At 428 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over La Rue, or 10
miles east of Kenton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Prospect, La Rue, Morral, Waldo, Caledonia, New Bloomington,
Green Camp and State Route 229 at US Route 23.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4044 8325 4051 8325 4051 8342 4069 8342
      4069 8331 4070 8330 4068 8304 4065 8294
      4064 8296 4049 8296 4049 8301 4043 8303
      4043 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 294DEG 19KT 4059 8342

Greenawalt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
451 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

OHZ010-019-030-242145-
Huron-Lorain-Ashland-
451 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HURON...NORTHERN ASHLAND AND
SOUTHWESTERN LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 450 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Norwalk, moving
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norwalk, Wellington, New London, Milan, Wakeman, Polk, Sullivan,
Pittsfield, Greenwich, Monroeville, North Fairfield, Rochester and
Nova.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4094 8219 4104 8264 4112 8277 4129 8268
      4125 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 288DEG 21KT 4119 8262

Greenawalt