Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall over or near the region today and
tonight. This stationary front will remain over the region and
gradually weaken into the weekend. High pressure is then
expected to prevail early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
This evening and tonight: The initial convective cluster
developed across Candler, Jenkins, Bulloch, and Screven
counties. That cluster has thrown out a nice outflow boundary
that is progressing eastward and should continue to kick off new
updrafts as it moves. Further east, the sea breeze is
initiating along the Charleston County coast and is starting to
move to the east within the broader steering flow. SPC
mesoanalysis shows 1,000-1,200 J/kg of DCAPE across much of the
area, so there will be the potential for strong wind gusts. The
main convective cluster was producing 40-50 knot on base
velocity data, indicative of the wind potential in this
environment. We could need a few more Severe Thunderstorm
Warnings before storms weaken later this evening. Also of note,
we will have to monitor convective trends later this evening
around the time of high tide (~8:20 pm) for possible fresh/salt
water flooding issues in Downtown Charleston. Once the diurnal
activity weakens later this evening we should see a lull before
possibly seeing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
late tonight. Models seem to favor the South Carolina coast and
the Charleston Tri-County for this possible late night activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate confidence this period. The area will remain between
troughing to the west and ridging to the east which will keep
abundant moisture and periodic upper-level forcing in place.
Combine these factors with mesoscale boundaries from the sea
breeze and convective outflows and the result will be higher
than normal rain chances, mainly each afternoon/evening. Deep
layer shear could increase a bit the next several days but still
be fairly marginal to support much severe weather, however
isolated instances of damaging winds certainly cannot be ruled
out. Temperatures should remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mid-level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday
night will weaken through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure
in the Atlantic will gradually shift towards the Southeast U.S.
early next week. At the surface, the stationary front over or
just west of our area will dissipate this weekend, with Atlantic
high pressure approaching the coast. Sea breeze convection will
be possible each afternoon/evening. Though, coverage should be
at or just below normal. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main near term concern is for direct impacts from thunderstorms
at KCHS and KSAV. Currently, activity is initiating inland, so
we have delayed the mention of VCTS until around 20z at both
sites. A TEMPO for thunder and MVFR visibility remains in the
20-23z time period. Amendments will almost certainly be needed
as thunderstorms evolve later this afternoon and into the
evening. Overnight, no significant fog or stratus concerns, but
we could see nocturnal shower and thunderstorm activity near
KCHS. Introduced a VCSH at 09z at KCHS.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds along the land/sea interface will peak in the
10-15 knot range this evening and then should steadily drop off
to 5-10 knots late tonight. Seas will average 2-3 feet. Mariners
should monitor conditions through the evening for thunderstorms
approaching and moving into the local waters, capable of
producing strong wind gusts.

Wednesday through Sunday: Moderate to high confidence this
period. A stationary front will remain inland the next few days,
gradually weakening into the weekend. High pressure is then
expected to prevail early next week. Expect backing winds to the
south/southeast each day near the coast along with some higher
gusts due to the sea breeze. At night, winds should veer more
southwesterly as the land breeze and nocturnal jet form.
Conditions overall should remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels but mariners can expect gusty winds in/near
thunderstorms, and the potential for isolated waterspouts to
form along the land breeze each morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the evening high tide, current tidal departures are running
around 0.8 ft and we should be on track for the Charleston
Harbor to peak around 7.3 ft MLLW. A Coastal Flood Advisory has
been issued for high tide around 8:20 pm.

Astronomical contributions from the new moon and perigee will
result in elevated tides (the Perigean Spring Tides) through the
week. At least minor coastal flooding and associated Coastal
Flood Advisories will be possible around the times of the
evening high tides through at least Thursday, and especially
along the South Carolina coast. If heavy rain coincides with
these elevated evening tides, significant flooding could develop
in some areas, especially in downtown Charleston.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>050.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

SCZ048>050-191000-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is likely during the
evening high tides through at least Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ051-191000-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Coastal Jasper-
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-191000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
417 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ101-118-SCZ047-182100-
Effingham-Inland Chatham-Inland Jasper-
417 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...CHATHAM
AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 416 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Marlow, or 7 miles south of Springfield,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pooler, Springfield, Godley Station, Savannah International Airport,
Rincon, Port Wentworth, Bloomingdale and Guyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8133 3232 8107 3204 8134 3220 8142
      3221 8141 3222 8143 3226 8143 3231 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 304DEG 8KT 3227 8133

NED